“头顶库”风险量化分析模型研究及实例应用

为了对天然气长输管道等设施穿越尾矿库下游形成的“头顶库”风险进行量化分析,基于假定和边界条件构建了尾矿库溃坝风险分析模型,并通过引入计算公式构建了尾矿库溃坝风险量化分析模型,提取了冲击波超压和爆破地震烈度法计算公式来量化分析管道爆炸对尾矿库影响效应。以福建龙岩某尾矿库“头顶库”为例,研究了该尾矿库溃坝后冲击力是否会造成管道断裂;模拟了爆炸对人员影响的范围;进而分析了管道完全破裂后爆炸造成的冲击波和爆炸振动对尾矿库的影响。研究结果表明:在500 a一遇的洪水条件下,尾矿库溃坝下泄的泥砂流对该穿越管道造成的冲击力不会造成管道断裂;管道泄漏10 min的爆炸情形产生的爆炸冲击波对尾矿库坝体结构没有影响,产生的等效爆炸地震烈度大于尾矿库的抗震设防烈度6度。可为同类实例提供工程理论方法。     

The clustering conditions for managing creative tourism destinations: the Alqueva region case,Portugal

The paper discusses conditions and format of a cluster model to support the management of a potential creative tourism destination in a setting where regional cross-sectoral collaboration is lacking. Creative tourism development requires a flexible framework and a healthy collaboration environment, more so when associated with resources shared by several stakeholders. This article focuses on the tourism potential of archaeological knowledge discovered during the environmental impact assessment of the Alqueva dam (Alentejo, Portugal). Interviews were conducted with 38 regional actors in the tourism and heritage sectors, as well as the dam developers and the companies responsible for archaeological interventions. Findings indicate that the lack of specific local policy addressing archaeological heritage hampers its potential use for tourism development, which is further aggravated by the absence of stakeholder communication and cooperation. A conceptual cluster model for the management of creative tourism destinations based on heritage resources and other local resources is proposed.     

溃坝模型在尾矿库风险评估中的应用

利用泥石流及水库溃坝等方面的经验公式和数学模型,模拟了风水沟尾矿库溃坝后尾砂流的演进过程,并分别计算了坝高为160m和200m两种情景溃坝后尾砂流在下游典型断面处的最大下泄流量、到达时间、过流面积、淹没深度及其影响范围。结果表明:在距坝址1km范围内区域受尾砂流冲击负荷最强,随即最大流量迅速衰减,流量过程线趋于平缓;不同坝高的溃坝差异较大,坝高由160m增至200m,淹没深度大于1m的覆盖范围由2km扩大至3km。另外,针对溃坝事故提出了利用矿坑接纳尾砂流的风险防范措施,对同类尾矿库的工程设计和应急管理工作具有重要的借鉴意义。     

机场旅客行李托运差异化安检模式安全性研究*

为减少因违禁物品托运引发的不安全事件,基于原有安检模式,提出行李托运差异化安检模式,结合搜索-决策检查模型,建立系统错误报警及错误通过率公式,得到行李托运安检系统准确度-速度变化规律。结果表明:差异化安检模式一方面提高系统安全性,另一方面提升安检效率,节约安检资源。研究结果可为机场调整安检策略提供参考。     

基于熵权法-TOPSIS的冶金企业作业循环更新研究

为更加合理、客观地制定安全操作规程更新周期,切实保障冶金工业人员作业安全,本文以安全管理原理和作业循环检查规范为依据,采用危险与可操作性分析方法(HAZOP),系统辨识某冶金高炉车间岗位人员操作行为;通过资料分析,建立典型操作程序信息表,选用风险发生次数、受伤程度、经济损失、作业次数4个指标作为综合评价依据;将熵权法与逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)结合,确定客观权重,并分析操作偏差危害程度与最劣方案的贴近程度,确定各操作规程更新周期为月检、季检、半年检、年检。结果表明:模型排序与现实情况相符,检查更新周期有效规范人员操作偏差,扩展作业循环分析规范的适用性。     

水库溃坝应急仿真关键技术综述

鉴于水库行业的特殊性,开展水库溃坝应急仿真技术研究,对于辅助研究水库应急过程、推进水库应急预案制度、提升水库应急管理至关重要.本文依据行业发展需求,参照建模与仿真理论,总结出溃坝应急过程数学模型研究、溃坝下游居民撤离优化技术研究、溃坝应急预案基础信息数字化技术研究等三项技术是发展溃坝应急仿真技术的关键,并对水库溃坝应急仿真三项关键技术的研究内容、重点解决的技术问题、技术路线分别进行了设想.     

Assessing Potential Removal of Low-Head Dams in Urban Settings: An Example from the Ottawa River,NW Ohio

This is a study of the scientific component of an effort to restore an urban river by removing a low-head dam. The Secor Dam is owned by a local government entity near Toledo, Ohio. The proposed removal of the last structure impeding flow on the Ottawa River has broad appeal, but the owner is concerned about liability issues, particularly potential changes to the flood regime, the presence of contaminated sediments behind the dam, and possible downstream transport of reservoir sediments. Assessing sediment contamination involved sediment sampling and analysis of trace metals and organic contaminants. Forecasting sediment transport involved field methods to determine the volume and textural properties of reservoir and upstream sediment and calculations to determine the fate of reservoir sediments. Forecasting changes in the flood regime involved HEC-RAS hydrological models to determine before and after dam removal flood scenarios using LiDAR data imported into an ArcGIS database. The resulting assessment found potential sediment contamination to be minor, and modeling showed that the removal of the dam would have minimal impacts on sediment transport and flood hazards. Based on the assessment, the removal of the dam has been approved by its owners.     

基于遥感信息的黄河中游水土流失敏感区淤地坝坝地资源特征研究

淤地坝是黄河中游黄土高原区水土流失防治的有效工程措施之一,在拦泥淤地、建设农田、巩固退耕还林（草）、改善生态环境等方面发挥了重要作用。基于WorldView-2、Google Earth、Bing、Sentinel-2多源遥感影像并结合实地淤地坝监测资料、NDVI和土地类型数据,本文完成了晋西南地区淤地坝坝地资源（数目、面积、位置、坝系、流域面积）的统计,并对其运行现状进行了评估。结果表明：截至2021年,晋西南地区淤地坝共计12167座,总面积达71.19 km²。规模上该区主要以小型淤地坝（＜0.015 km²）为主;空间上主要集中于中部的汾西县、洪洞县和浮山县地区,坝地数量和面积分别占总数量和面积的67.37%（8197座）和56.67%（40.35 km²）。目前,56.58%的淤地坝已经处于服务超限状态,平均超限5—10 a,其中,隰县、大宁县、汾西县、吉县和乡宁县地区淤地坝超限较为严重,60%以上的淤地坝已处于淤满状态。淤地坝的修建明显促进了黄土高原地区植被恢复、拦泥蓄容、建设耕地资源,但随着一些淤地坝的“淤满”,其生态和经济服务功能明显下降,并存在一定的潜在风险,亟需地方流域管理部门重视并采取有效措施。     

试论环境科研监测单位内部运行机制及经济核算制

在科技成果日益商品化的形势下，必须考虑科研的有效产出，同时降低科研经费的成本，尽可能做到投入小于产出；本文结合我所多年的实践，从科技运行机制和会计制度的应用和基本理论，技能和方法，在实践的基础上，进行归纳总结，提出一些观点，以适应科研工作和会计核算和需要，促进科研供给制向着经营型转化进行探索。     

Deteriorated watersheds can be restored: A case study

A project in west-central Colorado demonstrated that a watershed dissected by a dense gully network can be stabilized and rehabilitated. Check dam systems, aided by improved vegetative cover through reduced cattle grazing and plantings, stabilized not only the structurally treated gullies, but also gullies within the network that were not structurally treated. Comparison with untreated gullies located outside of the project area, showed that the outside gullies widened three times as much as the structurally untreated inside gullies. Statistical analysis indicated that precipitation was normal during the treatment and evaluation period.Check dams decreased gully depth by accumulating sediment deposits. In turn, gully bank stabilization was hastened and alluvial aquifer volumes increased. This increase, plus higher infiltration rates as a result of denser vegetation, led to renewed perennial streamflow after 7 treatment years.Within 11 years after treatment, check dam systems and improved vegetation reduced sediment loads in the flows by more than 90 percent, providing a substantial benefit to farmlands and ponds downstream.From this work we are able to conclude that only part of a gully network requires structural treatment. The mainstem gully, and those tributaries controlling the local base levels of others, are the critical segments that should be structurally treated.