战略环境评价在中国的发展及方法学探讨

本文在回顾和评述战略评价（SEA）的发展状况的基础上，从概念和实践的角度，对SEA方法学作了初步探讨，并提出SEA方法学研究的一般思路。     

北京市发展CNG汽车的条件与前景分析

北京市汽车排放污染物贡献率已达到：HC73.5％，CO63．4％，NOx46％。用CNG代替汽油作汽车燃料，可使CO减少97％、HC减少72％、NOx减少39％、CO2减少24％、SO2减少90％。建立CNG加气站和CNG汽车改装这两个CNG应用关键问题在技术上、经济上都是可行的。北京市CNG燃料来源有保障。北京市车辆都比较适合使用CNG气体燃料。北京有很强的CNG汽车产业科技力量。对北京市当前发展CNG汽车产业提出了一些建议。     

Fluctuations of Population Size and Structure in the Northern Mole Vole: Preliminary Analysis

Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants.     

Seasonal and spatial variability of Po,U and Pu levels in the river catchment area assessed by application of neural-network based classification

The present study deals with the application of self-organizing maps (SOM) in order to model, classify and interpret seasonal and spatial variability of ²¹⁰Po, ²³⁸U and ^239+240Pu levels in the Vistula river basin. The data set represents concentration values for 3 alpha emitters (²¹⁰Po, ²³⁸U and ^239+240Pu) measured in surface water samples collected at 19 different sampling locations (8 in major Vistula stream while 11 in right or left Vistula tributaries) during four seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn) in the framework of a one-year quality monitoring study. The advantages of an SOM algorithm, its classification and visualization ability for environmental data sets, are stressed. The neural-network based classification made it possible to reveal specific patterns related to both seasonal and spatial variability. In the middle and upper part of Vistula catchment as well as in the right-shore tributaries, concentrations of ²¹⁰Po and ²³⁸U during summer and winter are the lowest. Concentrations of ²¹⁰Po and ²³⁸U increase significantly during spring and autumn in the Vistula river catchment, especially in the delta of Vistula river. High concentration of anthropogenic originated ^239+240Pu indicates “site-specific” character of pollution in two large left-shore tributaries located in the middle part of the Vistula drainage area. Efficient classification of sampling locations could lead to an optimization of river radiochemical sampling networks and to a better tracing of natural and anthropogenic changes along Vistula river stream.     

Mass balance approach to estimating radionuclide loads and concentrations in edible fish tissues using stable analogues

Humans can consume a number of types of biota tissues, which have varying propensities to accumulate radionuclides. As a result, depending upon the biota species, the radionuclide and the tissue under consideration, it may be necessary to estimate the percent radionuclide load in specific edible tissues, and in cases where whole organisms are consumed, to estimate the radionuclide load in the whole body of an organism, based on data that have been collected for individual tissues. To accomplish this, data were compiled that can be used to estimate the partitioning patterns and percent loads of various groups of elements in edible tissues of freshwater fishes. General trends in partitioning, such as those provided in this paper, can be used to predict radionuclide transfer to humans and the corresponding potential radiological dose to humans via dietary pathways, in this case following the consumption of fish.     

基于层次分析法的未确知测度理论泥石流危险性评价

将未确知测度理论与层次分析方法相结合用于评价泥石流危险性。根据泥石流危险性的影响因素和等级划分标准,选取泥石流规模、泥石流发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、最大相对高差、流域切割密度、主沟床弯曲系数、泥砂补给长度比、24小时最大降雨量、人口密度等10个指标作为泥石流危险评价因子,利用未确知测度理论建立泥石流危险性评价指标的未确知测度函数,通过层次分析方法确定各评价指标的权重,依据置信度识别准则对泥石流危险性进行评价,并结合实例进行了对比分析。研究结果表明,基于层次分析方法的未确知测度理论的评价方法评价过程合理、置信度高、结果可靠,为泥石流危险性评价提供了一种新的方法     

黔中石漠化地区不同土地利用方式对土壤环境的影响

在贵州省普定县喀斯特石漠化地区通过调查分析,对3种土地不同利用方式（Ⅰ封山育林地、Ⅱ退耕还林地、Ⅲ农耕地）土壤物理性质、化学性质及土壤种子库进行了研究。结果表明利用方式的不同对土壤物理性质、化学性质及土壤种子库均产生了显著的影响。土壤容重、土壤毛管孔隙度随土壤扰动的加剧而下降,表现为Ⅰ＞Ⅱ＞Ⅲ;土壤总孔隙度与非毛管孔隙度呈现出随土壤扰动程度增加而增加的趋势,表现为Ⅲ＞Ⅱ＞Ⅰ;不同层次之间容重的变异较小,土壤质地比较均一;Ⅱ土壤有机质低于类型Ⅲ和Ⅰ;Ⅰ初步形成了林地环境,林地土壤表现出良性转变。随土壤深度的增加,有机质、全氮、全磷、速效氮表现出减少的趋势,土壤扰动降低了土壤化学性质层次间变异。不同利用方式下土壤种子库物种组成变化不大,土壤中的种子集中分布在表层0～5 cm内,随土层的加深所含种子数量、物种数逐渐降低。不同利用类型的土壤种子数量在0～5 cm层次差异显著（〖WTBX〗p〖WTBZ〗=0.021 897）,种子种类差异不显著（〖WTBX〗p〖WTBZ〗=0.097 628）。土壤扰动促进种子向深层传播,退耕还林有利于土壤质量的恢复。     

气候变化对江苏省城市系统用电量变化趋势的影响

江苏省是长江流域经济发展领先的地区,在其社会经济快速发展、人民生活水平迅速提高和电力供应有限的情况下,气候变化加剧了电力需求的紧张局面。根据江苏省50年来的用电量资料和1985年以来夏季平均温度距平资料,分析了城市系统用电量在随社会经济发展增长的同时,因气候异常特别是因夏季高温波动而引起的居民和城市系统用电量的变化。结果发现,夏季高温异常是居民和城市系统用电量增加的重要气候因子,指出未来气候变暖可能导致电力需求更加严峻的形势。对于现阶段长江流域各地区电力工业和国民经济的可持续发展具有科学意义和参考价值。