Wildfire effects on hiking and biking demand in New Mexico: a travel cost study

We use a travel cost model to test the effects of wild and prescribed fire on visitation by hikers and mountain bikers in New Mexico. Our results indicate that net benefits for mountain bikers is $150 per trip and that they take an average of 6.2 trips per year. Hikers take 2.8 trips per year with individual net benefits per trip of $130. Both hikers' and mountain bikers' demand functions react adversely to prescribed burning. Net benefits for both groups fall as areas recover from prescribed burns. Because both visitation and annual recreation benefits decrease to these two types of visitors, this gives rise to multiple use costs associated with prescribed burning. With respect to wildfire, hikers and mountain bikers both exhibit decreased visitation as areas recover from wildfires, however, only hikers indicate an increase in per trip net benefits. Bikers' demand effectively drops to zero. These results differ from previous findings in the literature and have implications for efficient implementation of the National Fire Plan and whether prescribed burning is a cost effective tool for multiple use management of National Forests. Specifically, that fire and recreation managers cannot expect recreation users to react similarly to fire across recreation activities, or different geographic regions. What is cost effective in one region may not be so in another.     

浅谈系统论方法在防汛抗灾工作中的应用

本文以系统论方法为指导,概括地分析了防汛抗灾系统的组成、特征以及系统论方法对防汛抗灾工作的作用,并结合防汛抗灾工作的实际,应用系统论的基本原理,提出了防汛抗灾系统整体与要素的组织管理方法,探讨了如何充分发挥防汛抗灾系统的整体功能,取得最佳运行效果的途径。     

暴雨泥石流暴发的准周期性探讨

泥石流是山区的主要灾害类型，其发生条件和暴发规律尚在探索之中，泥石流过程本质上并不是纯随机事件，地形坡度，暴雨强度和风化岩土物质积累的组合决定了泥石流的规模，人们推测其暴发具有周期性，但并没有得到直接的证据。作者从山坡松散物质积累条件和泥石流暴发的概率分布出发，在考虑其发生规模的前提下，论证了泥石流暴发风险具有周期性，并且给出了其风险度及暴大风险重现期的估算公式，理论研究和调查结果表明，泥石流间隔期越长，其发长的规模将越大，这在制定山区防灾对策中应该特别注意。     

大渡河干海子滑坡稳定性研究

干海子滑坡位于大渡河流域,规模巨大.为研究该滑坡的稳定性,在对滑坡基本特征及变形破坏特征等深入研究的基础上,采用极限平衡法(Geo-slope软件)和有限差分法(FLAC-3D软件)对该滑坡的稳定性和应力应变特征进行了计算、模拟.稳定性计算模拟主要从深层、浅层及局部稳定三方面入手分析,计算模拟结果与滑坡的宏现地质现象均...     

Structural equation model of the influence of noise annoyance on miners’ unsafe behavior in coal mines

Miners' unsafe behavior (UB) is the main cause of coal mine accidents. Previous research has suggested that excessive noise in tunnels impacts miners' temperaments and safe production behavior. To explore the influence of noise on UB, four different dimensions of noise annoyance were identified: cognitive, emotional, communication, and physical mechanism annoyance. The coal mine noise annoyance scale, miners' unsafe behavior intention (UBI) scale, and miners’ UB scale were developed according to different dimensions. In the first survey, a total of 200 questionnaires were distributed in the two coal mines, and 193 valid questionnaires were recovered. Exploratory factor analysis was conducted, and invalid items were removed according to the analysis results to form the final scale. Then, 500 final scales were distributed in two Chinese coal mines, and 482 valid questionnaires were collected. Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted by collating the data of the second questionnaire. Based upon the structural equation model (SEM), the SEM of the influence of noise annoyance degree on UB and the path analysis with latent variable path analysis with the latent variables (PA-LVs) mediating model of the effect of UBI on UB were established, and the path coefficients with fitting data of the model were analyzed. The results indicated that the four dimensions of coal mine noise annoyance had a strong positive impact on UB, which was reduced by less noise annoyance. In addition, the Bootstrap method was used to verify the mediating method among the four dimensions of noise annoyance, cognitive annoyance, emotional annoyance, with communication annoyance indirectly affecting UB through UBI. The research results provide theoretical support for reducing the UB of miners and improving coal mine safety levels.     

包裹块石煤固氟燃料制备工艺研究

石灰或烧制白云岩与粘土、低氟无烟煤粉作为包裹材料，通过正交试验方法，对陕西省紫阳县蒿坪镇高氟块状石煤进行了固氟效果研究。结果表明，影响包裹石煤固氟效果的主要因素是无烟煤粉和石灰，影响顺序是无烟煤粉〉石灰〉粘土。最佳制备工艺条件为石煤块：无烟煤粉：石灰：粘土=70：10：10：5，固氟率达91．9％。     

Exposure assessment of operators to pesticides in Kongou,a sub-watershed of Niger River valley

The use of pesticides in horticultural sector in Niger has become an integral part of modern agriculture. Nevertheless, their inappropriate use can generate negative health effects to operators. A study was carried out among Kongou farmers in order to assess their potential dermal exposure (PDE). The UK-POEM model was used to quantify the PDE during mixing/loading and application according to the local practices. In order to determine which parts of the operator body are subject to most contamination during spraying and to validate the theoretical model used, a patch method was used with a tartrazine dye. The deposits of the tartrazine on patches were measured by colorimetry thanks to the absorbance value determined after their extraction in water and a calibration curve. A total of ten spraying trials (five trials with the hand-held sprayer and five others with the backpack sprayer) were performed by different producers at 0.5 and 1 m height for each trial. The survey shows that 92% of the farmers are illiterate and the most common active substances identified are organophosphate or pyrethroids insecticides. Seventy percent of operators do not use any personal protective equipment (PPE) during mixing/loading or spraying. The predictive systemic exposure levels vary from 0.0027?mg kg^?1 bw per day to 0.7692?mg kg^?1 bw per day for backpack sprayer and from 0.0261?mg kg^?1 bw per day to 0.9788?mg kg^?1 bw per day for hand-held sprayer, several times higher the Acceptable Operator Exposure Level (AOEL) for some actives substances. Theoretical modeling indicates more exposure of operator by a hand-held sprayer than a backpack sprayer. The patch method results show that the deposits of dye increase when the position of sprayer nozzle increases from 0.5 to 1 m for the two sprayers. All parts of the operator body are contaminated but lower body parts and chest are the most exposed. The patch method results also show that hand spraying contaminates operator more than backpack spraying, confirming the results of the theoretical model.     

熵法估参在环境监测数据频率分析中的应用

以最大信息熵原理为理论基础的熵法估参方法，是一种具有严格物理和数学意义的新型参数估计方法，本文针对珠江广州河段主要污染物含量长年监测数据，对比熵法与传统方法矩法对四参数Г分布的估参结果，并以频率绝对离盖和最小为准则进行判定，结果表明，熵法估参结果与矩法总体上相当接近，且大部分样本的熵法估计参数优于矩法，在环境监测数据频率分析中具有实用性和推广价值。     

灾害地图几个问题的初步研究

运用地图学的理论和方法，阐述了灾害地图的性质、内容、功能和作用，介绍了灾害地图的主要类型，探讨了灾害信息图形显示的过程、方法和手段，并提出了开展灾害地图研究的几点建议。     

COD测定方法的发展与研究动态

本文较为全面地论述了COD测定方法的发展与研究现状。在论述了国标中COD标准方法不足之处的基础上,本文就标准方法的众多改进措施分类进行了比较与探讨,包括消解方法的改进、替代催化剂的研究以及氯离子干扰的消除,然后介绍了相关系数法、电化学法、分光光度法和流动注射法等COD测定替代技术。本文认为,研究试剂用量少、无污染的绿色COD测定方法具有重要而积极的意义,而研究适应性强、运行可靠、性价比高的COD在线监测仪则是COD监测的发展趋势。