基于人居尺度的中国城市热岛强度时空变化及其驱动因子解析

全球变暖的大背景下城市地表热环境的日趋恶化是全球现代城市共同面临的生态环境问题之一,对城市地区居民的身心健康、空气质量改善以及植被生长发育等诸多方面造成不利影响.本文利用2001～2018 年时间序列MODIS 地表温度数据产品,基于一致性方法对我国1 232个主要城镇人居斑块(面积＞10 km2)的热岛强度及其时空变...     

用灰色关联法分析森林生态系统植被状况对地表径流系数的影响

运用灰色关联法对南亚热带鹤山丘陵试验站４种森林生态系统植被状况影响地表径流系数进行了定量分析,结果表明：对于本文所选取的植被状况参数对地表径流系数影响的大小顺序是：枯落叶层厚度〉草本层盖度〉灌木层盖度〉林分高;４种森林生态系统的植被状况对地表径流系数的影响,马占相思林最大,平权关联度与非平权灰关联度分别为０．７８２和０．７６６;林果苗系统最小,平权关联度与非平权灰关联度分别为０．５３２和０．５３５     

基于模糊综合判别的森林火险等级预报研究

森林火险气象因子的预报具有很大的不确定和模糊性,而依赖于气象预报因子的森林火险预报同样具有等级判别的模糊性.以海南岛森林火险气象等级预报为例建立森林火险预报模糊数学模型,研究建立森林火险预报模糊综合判别数学模型的关键技术,并分析对比模糊数学模型与其它常用森林火险预报方法模型的优劣.结果表明模糊数学模型在海南岛森林火险等级预报中显现出明显优势,它能够更好地分辨出高森林火险与低森林火险,较好反映森林火险等级与气象因子之间存在的复杂关系.     

森林火灾气象环境要素和重大林火研究

利用1970～1994年25年间的森林火灾资料,分析研究了湖北省神农架林区森林火灾的火源,火环境条件,林火发生、发展、蔓延和熄灭过程的天气气候特征及重大林火燃烧期的某些要素特征,对指导森林防火灭火具有现实意义.     

Predicting and setting conservation priorities for Bolivian mammals based on biological correlates of the risk of decline

The recognition that growing proportions of species worldwide are endangered has led to the development of comparative analyses to elucidate why some species are more prone to extinction than others. Understanding factors and patterns of species vulnerability might provide an opportunity to develop proactive conservation strategies. Such comparative analyses are of special concern at national scales because this is the scale at which most conservation initiatives take place. We applied powerful ensemble learning models to test for biological correlates of the risk of decline among the Bolivian mammals to understand species vulnerability at a national scale and to predict the population trend for poorly known species. Risk of decline was nonrandomly distributed: higher proportions of large‐sized taxa were under decline, whereas small‐sized taxa were less vulnerable. Body mass, mode of life (i.e., aquatic, terrestrial, volant), geographic range size, litter size, home range, niche specialization, and reproductive potential were strongly associated with species vulnerability. Moreover, we found interacting and nonlinear effects of key traits on the risk of decline of mammals at a national scale. Our model predicted 35 data‐deficient species in decline on the basis of their biological vulnerability, which should receive more attention in order to prevent their decline. Our results highlight the relevance of comparative analysis at relatively narrow geographical scales, reveal previously unknown factors related to species vulnerability, and offer species‐by‐species outcomes that can be used to identify targets for conservation, especially for insufficiently known species. Predección y Definición de Prioridades de Conservación para Mamíferos de Bolivia con Base en Correlaciones Biológicas del Riesgo de Declinación     

Effectiveness of Community Forestry in Prey Long Forest,Cambodia

Cambodia has 57% forest cover, the second highest in the Greater Mekong region, and a high deforestation rate (1.2%/year, 2005–2010). Community forestry (CF) has been proposed as a way to reduce deforestation and support livelihoods through local management of forests. CF is expanding rapidly in Cambodia. The National Forests Program aims to designate one million hectares of forest to CF by 2030. However, the effectiveness of CF in conservation is not clear due to a global lack of controlled comparisons, multiple meanings of CF, and the context‐specific nature of CF implementation. We assessed the effectiveness of CF by comparing 9 CF sites with paired controls in state production forest in the area of Prey Long forest, Cambodia. We assessed forest condition in 18–20 randomly placed variable‐radius plots and fixed‐area regeneration plots. We surveyed 10% of households in each of the 9 CF villages to determine the proportion that used forest products, as a measure of household dependence on the forest. CF sites had fewer signs of anthropogenic damage (cut stems, stumps, and burned trees), higher aboveground biomass, more regenerating stems, and reduced canopy openness than control areas. Abundance of economically valuable species, however, was higher in control sites. We used survey results and geographic parameters to model factors affecting CF outcomes. Interaction between management type, CF or control, and forest dependence indicated that CF was more effective in cases where the community relied on forest products for subsistence use and income. Efectividad de la Silvicultura Comunal en el Bosque Prey Long, Camboya     

Improving Environmental and Social Targeting through Adaptive Management in Mexico's Payments for Hydrological Services Program

Natural resource managers are often expected to achieve both environmental protection and economic development even when there are fundamental trade‐offs between these goals. Adaptive management provides a theoretical structure for program administrators to balance social priorities in the presence of trade‐offs and to improve conservation targeting. We used the case of Mexico's federal Payments for Hydrological Services program (PSAH) to illustrate the importance of adaptive management for improving program targeting. We documented adaptive elements of PSAH and corresponding changes in program eligibility and selection criteria. To evaluate whether these changes resulted in enrollment of lands of high environmental and social priority, we compared the environmental and social characteristics of the areas enrolled in the program with the characteristics of all forested areas in Mexico, all areas eligible for the program, and all areas submitted for application to the program. The program successfully enrolled areas of both high ecological and social priority, and over time, adaptive changes in the program's criteria for eligibility and selection led to increased enrollment of land scoring high on both dimensions. Three factors facilitated adaptive management in Mexico and are likely to be generally important for conservation managers: a supportive political environment, including financial backing and encouragement to experiment from the federal government; availability of relatively good social and environmental data; and active participation in the review process by stakeholders and outside evaluators. Mejorando los Objetivos Ambiental y Social Mediante el Manejo Adaptativo en el Programa de Pagos por Servicios Hidrológicos en México     

Thermal Physiology,Disease, and Amphibian Declines on the Eastern Slopes of the Andes

Rising temperatures, a widespread consequence of climate change, have been implicated in enigmatic amphibian declines from habitats with little apparent human impact. The pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), now widespread in Neotropical mountains, may act in synergy with climate change causing collapse in thermally stressed hosts. We measured the thermal tolerance of frogs along a wide elevational gradient in the Tropical Andes, where frog populations have collapsed. We used the difference between critical thermal maximum and the temperature a frog experiences in nature as a measure of tolerance to high temperatures. Temperature tolerance increased as elevation increased, suggesting that frogs at higher elevations may be less sensitive to rising temperatures. We tested the alternative pathogen optimal growth hypothesis that prevalence of the pathogen should decrease as temperatures fall outside the optimal range of pathogen growth. Our infection‐prevalence data supported the pathogen optimal growth hypothesis because we found that prevalence of Bd increased when host temperatures matched its optimal growth range. These findings suggest that rising temperatures may not be the driver of amphibian declines in the eastern slopes of the Andes. Zoonotic outbreaks of Bd are the most parsimonious hypothesis to explain the collapse of montane amphibian faunas; but our results also reveal that lowland tropical amphibians, despite being shielded from Bd by higher temperatures, are vulnerable to climate‐warming stress. Fisiología Termal, Enfermedades y Disminuciones de Anfibios en las Laderas Orientales de los Andes     

EVALUATION OF BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES FOR CONTROLLING NONPOINT POLLUTION FROM SILVICULTURAL OPERATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Fifteen years of streamflow and water quality data were evaluated to determine the effectiveness of Best Management Practices (BMP's) in controlling nonpoint source pollution from an 110. acre commercial clearcut located in the Ridge and Valley Province of central Pennsylvania. The analyses addressed both short- and long-term changes in the physical and chemical properties and the hydro-logic regime of the stream draining this 257-acre watershed. Overall, the BMP's employed on this commercial clearcut were very effective in preventing serious deterioration of stream quality as a result of forest harvesting. Although statistically significant increases in nitrate and potassium concentrations and temperature and turbidity levels were measured the first two years following harvesting, the increases were relatively small and, with the exception of turbidity, within drinking water standards. Nevertheless, such increases may violate EPA's anti-degradation policy. Nitrate and potassium concentrations and turbidity levels remained above pre-harvesting levels for as long as nine years following harvesting. Clearcutting also significantly increased water yield, which in turn initially lowered the concentrations of most solutes because of dilution. Increased water yields returned to pro-harvesting levels within four years as a result of rapid regrowth. The export of some ions increased; however, the increased export appeared to be insufficient to affect site fertility. Implementation of periodic post-harvest inspections of harvested areas, increasing the width of the buffer zone, and utilizing buffer zones on all perennial and intermittent channels would reduce further impacts of silvi-cultural activities on water quality.     

Bird Extinctions in Atlantic Forest Fragments of the Viçosa Region, Southeastern Brazil

Abstract:   We studied the conservation status of Atlantic forest birds in 43 forest fragments ranging in size from 1 to 384 ha in the Viçosa region of southeastern Brazil. We compared data from 15 years of field work with historical records from the region, mainly originating from specimens collected by João Moojen during the 1930s. We used published studies associated with museum data and current field work to assess the decline of forest birds during the last 70 years and to relate their disappearance to forest fragmentation and destruction. At least 28 bird species have become locally extinct, 43 are critically endangered, and 25 are vulnerable, representing 60.7% of the original forest bird community known to exist in the region. Vulnerability to fragmentation differed among guilds, forest strata, and endemicity status. Birds that feed on fruit and seeds, and those that feed on insects, were more threatened than omnivores and carnivores. Nectarivorous species were less threatened than other guilds. Moreover, terrestrial and understory birds or birds using only one forest stratum also were more likely to have been threatened. Finally, Atlantic forest endemics were more likely to have become extinct than nonendemic species. In general, sensitivity to environmental disturbance at the local level was similar to the predicted vulnerability to regional disturbance derived from the literature. Our results indicate that a serious decline of Atlantic forest birds is underway and that many other species of birds, not previously recognized as threatened, are of conservation concern .