基于Logistic回归模型的大兴安岭地区林火发生概率预测研究*

为实现对大兴安岭地区林火发生概率的基本预测,根据该地区历史火灾资料、地形因子、气象因子和人为因子,基于Logistic回归模型建立该地区林火发生概率预测模型。研究结果表明:坡度、海拔、平均气压、平均气温、平均相对湿度、最小相对湿度是该地区林火发生的主要驱动因子;坡度、海拔、平均气压、平均气温与林火发生概率呈正相关,平均相对湿度和最小相对湿度与林火发生概率呈负相关;ROC曲线下面积值（AUC）为0.91,最佳临界值为0.425;建立的大兴安岭地区林火发生概率预测模型,建模样本总体准确率为82.4%,验证样本总体准确率为80.5%;该地区夏季林火发生概率明显高于春、秋季;林火发生概率较高的Ⅳ级和Ⅴ级火险区主要集中在夏季该地区东南部、西部以及春、秋季该地区东南部。研究结果可为该地区林火预测提供1种参考方法。     

Simplification of Pine Forests Due to Utilization by Tibetan Villages in Southwest China

In China, many rural communities depend upon forests to provide wood, fuel, fertilizer, animal bedding, and valuable non-timber forest products (NTFP). However, the degree to which forest resource extraction is compatible with new conservation aims is unclear because there is little information on the specific ecological effects of traditional forest collecting practices. Therefore, we compared the structure and floristics of Pinus densata forests exposed to three levels of resource extraction by Tibetan villages in northwest Yunnan: (1) a forest site protected from wood and timber removal, (2) moderately utilized forest sites exposed to traditional collecting practices, and (3) patches of highly utilized forest from which timber extraction is high in response to recent development pressures. The results show that understorey and cryptogamic species are reduced in all the utilized forest sites by comparison with the protected forest. However, the moderately utilized pine forests still provide good NTFP habitats by maintaining relatively high canopy covers, litter covers, and understorey structural complexity; this suggests that traditional forest resource use, while simplifying the forest, does not pose an increasing threat to pine forest integrity. By comparison, the highly utilized forests are transformed into open, herb-rich environments in which canopy covers and understorey complexity are depleted, and NTFP habitats are degraded. In the future it may be practical to enhance biodiversity by proscribing forest resource collection, but the immediate priority is to monitor the sustainability of forest utilization using indicators such as understorey development, litter cover, and cryptogamic richness.     

Retrieving leaf area index for coniferous forest in Xingguo County, China with Landsat ETM+ images

Spatial distributions of the leaf area index (LAI) needed for carbon cycle modeling in Xingguo County, China were estimated based on correlations between the field-measurements and vegetation indices (VIs). After making geometric and atmospheric corrections to two Landsat ETM+ images, one in January 2000 and the other in May 2003, three VIs (SR, NDVI, and RSR) were derived, and their separate correlations with ground LAI measurements were established. The correlation with RSR was the highest among the three VIs. The retrieved LAI values for January 2000 were lower than those for May 2003 because of a small seasonal variation in the coniferous forests (predominantly masson pine) and the decrease in the understorey vegetation during winter.     

Multi-scales Analysis of Driving Forces on Land Use/Cover Change in China： Taking Farmland Returning to Forest or Grassland as a Case

Increasing populations are causing an increase in food demands, and the area of cultivated land expands every year. Inappropriate land transition from ecology to production results in the constant decline of the ecological security level and influences the regional sustainable development. Adjusting unreasonable land use mode and reconstructing natural land cover are important ways to maintain and improve the ecological environment. Also reclaiming farmland as areas for forests and grasslands （FRFG） is another way. Successful implementation of FRFG in China is the result of comprehensive effect of the multi-scales driving forces. This paper analyses the driving forces of FRFG in China on a national （country） -regional （province） - local （county） - household （farmer） level scale, and the results are： driving forces at the national scale include ecological and food security and the western development of China; at the regional scale, ecological and economic benefits become the main factors to influence the dimension of FRFG under the same policy. The driving forces can be divided into 6 types： industrial structure adjustment, water source protection, flood prevention, the Three-Gorge Project protection, reduction of the amount of sediment flowing into the Yellow River and wind erosion desertification prevention. The driving forces at the local scale can be divided into 12 types with developing leading industries, increasing farmers＇ income and improving agricultural production conditions as the main types; at the household scale, the national policy meeting farmers＇ demands and the optimization of individual interests are all driving forces.     

黑龙江省森林火灾灾情年际变化与地球自转异常的遥联关系

根据天地生相互作用原理，针对地球自转因子的多年变化情况以及与在此期间森林火为灾情的关系的研究，揭示了森林火灾和地球自转有密切的联系，为林火预测提供了新的思路。     

Recruitment of Hornbill-Dispersed Trees in Hunted and Logged Forests of the Indian Eastern Himalaya

Abstract:  Hunting of hornbills by tribal communities is widespread in logged foothill forests of the Indian Eastern Himalaya. We investigated whether the decline of hornbills has affected the dispersal and recruitment of 3 large-seeded tree species. We hypothesized that 2 low-fecundity tree species , Chisocheton paniculatus and Dysoxylum binectariferum (Meliaceae) bearing arillate fruits, are more dispersal limited than a prolifically fruiting drupaceous tree Polyalthia simiarum (Annonaceae), which has potential dispersers other than hornbills. We estimated the abundance of large avian frugivores during the fruiting season along transects in 2 protected and 2 disturbed forests. We compared recruitment of the tree species near (<10 m) and far (10–40 m) from parent trees at protected and disturbed sites. Median abundance of Great ( Buceros bicornis ), Wreathed ( Aceros undulatus ), and Oriental Pied Hornbills ( Anthracoceros albirostris ) were significantly lower in disturbed forests, but sites did not differ in abundances of the Mountain Imperial Pigeon ( Ducula badia ). Overall, tree species showed more severely depressed recruitment of seedlings (77% fewer) and juveniles (69% fewer) in disturbed than in protected forests. In disturbed forests, 93% fewer seedlings of C. paniculatus were beyond parental crowns, and a high number of all seedlings (42%) accumulated directly under reproductive adults. In contrast , D. binectariferum and P. simiarum were recruitment rather than dispersal limited, with fewer dispersed seedlings surviving in disturbed than in protected forests. Results are consistent with the idea that disturbance disrupts mutualisms between hornbills and some large-seeded food plants, with the caveat that role redundancy within even small and specialized disperser assemblages renders other tree species less vulnerable to loss of regular dispersal agents.     

Hunting for Sustainability in Tropical Secondary Forests

Abstract:  The interaction between land-use change and the sustainability of hunting is poorly understood but is critical for sustaining hunted vertebrate populations and a protein supply for the rural poor. We investigated sustainability of hunting in an Amazonian landscape mosaic, where a small human population had access to large areas of both primary and secondary forest. Harvestable production of mammals and birds was calculated from density estimates. We compared production with offtake from three villages and used catch-per-unit-effort as an independent measure of prey abundance. Most species were hunted unsustainably in primary forest, leading to local depletion of the largest primates and birds. The estimated sustainable supply of wild meat was higher for primary (39 kg · km⁻²· yr⁻¹) than secondary forest (22 kg · km⁻²· yr⁻¹) because four species were absent and three species at low abundance in secondary forests. Production of three disturbance-tolerant mammal species was 3 times higher in secondary than in primary forest, but hunting led to overexploitation of one species. Our data suggest that an average Amazonian smallholder would require ≥3.1 km² of secondary regrowth to ensure a sustainable harvest of forest vertebrates. We conclude that secondary forests can sustainably provide only 2% of the required protein intake of Amazonian smallholders and are unlikely to be sufficient for sustainable hunting in other tropical forest regions.     

Using Citizen Science Programs to Identify Host Resistance in Pest‐Invaded Forests

Abstract: Threats to native forests from non‐native insects and pathogens (pests) are generally addressed with methods such as quarantine, eradication, biological control, and development of resistant stock through hybridization and breeding. In conjunction with such efforts, it may be useful to have citizen scientists locate rare surviving trees that may be naturally pest resistant or tolerant. The degree of resistance of individual trees identified in this way can be tested under controlled conditions, and the most resistant individuals can be integrated into plant breeding programs aimed at developing pest‐resistant native stock. Involving citizen scientists in programs aimed at identifying rare trees that survive colonization by pests provides a low‐cost means of maximizing search efforts across wide geographic regions and may provide an effective supplement to existing management approaches.     

Impacts of daily weather variability on simulations of the Canadian boreal forest

This study examines the importance of climate variability when simulating forest succession using a process-based model of stand development. The FORSKA-2V forest gap model, originally developed for forcing with monthly mean climate data, was modified to accept daily weather data. The model's performance was compared using different temporal resolutions of forcing along a bioclimatic transect crossing the boreal region of central Canada, including the aspen-parkland and forest-tundra ecotones. Forcing the model with daily weather data improved the simulation of key attributes of present-day forest along the transect, particularly at the ecotones, compared to forcing with monthly data or long term averages. The results support the hypothesis that climatic variability at daily time-scales is an important determinant of present-day boreal forest composition and productivity. To simulate boreal forest response to climatic change it will be necessary to create climatic scenarios that include plausible projections of future daily scale variability.     

上海城市森林综合评价研究

近年来,许多国家把发展城市森林作为实施城市可持续发展战略的一项重要内容。城市森林的综合评价在城市森林的理论研究、规划、设计和管理中具有重要的实践意义。根据城市森林评价的特点和实际，依据信息系统建设的原则和方法，以VB为开发平台，采用ESRI公司的Areobjects组件技术，设计开发了上海城市森林综合评价信息支持系统，探讨了在系统开发过程中的主要技术问题。包括系统分析与设计的原则、方法。以及系统的结构、功能设计和系统的实现等。并利用该系统对上海城市森林进行了尝试性评价。认为：上海城市森林的协调性相对较好，而城市森林生态结构有待进一步提高。