Interrupting the balance: reconsidering the complexities of conflict in South Sudan

By the start of 2014, violent conflict had erupted across much of South Sudan following initial violence in Juba on 15 December 2013. The speed with which the fighting has spread raises questions regarding the impact of national‐level politics on violence at the local level. This article develops a framework in which violent conflict can be comprehended as a response to the interruption of the negotiation of the balance of power between groups; the negotiation is interrupted when that balance tips in favour of one group, such as through changes in the national political market or government reforms. The article provides two cases studies of attempts to strengthen the state that inadvertently interrupted local power relations between groups. In response, the groups engaged in violent conflict to reinstate a balance of power. Both examples involve conflict among Dinka groups from 2005 to 2008.     

基于SD-ABMS方法的航空应急医疗转运任务仿真系统

为解决我国航空应急医疗转运演练成本高昂及我国航空医疗转运任务执行机理相关研究不足的问题,依据真实的医疗转运场景,抽象出病患、飞行员、医护、机务、医院负责人、安保、环境等共16种Agent和详细的医疗转运流程;使用ABMS方法对各Agent的离散行为及Agent间的协同行为进行建模,使用SD方法对各Agent的连续行为进行建模, 从微观视角刻画并实现航空应急医疗转运任务仿真模型,并基于Anylogic实现航空应急医疗转运任务系统可视化原型。研究结果展示了航空应急医疗转运任务执行机理,可降低相关演练成本,也可为航空应急医疗转运实时任务评估提供支持。     

Greening up: the effects of environmental standards in EU and US trade agreements

Can environmental provisions in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) foster an environmental race to the top? The ways in which different enforcement mechanisms in North–South PTAs affect the implementation of environmental standards in developing countries are examined. It is argued that environmental provisions in European Union (EU) and United States (US) PTAs will be effective in instigating policy change in partner countries, although the timing of the effect will vary significantly. Fines and sanctions in US PTAs incentivize partner countries to reform during the negotiation process. Reform in EU PTA partners is predicted to occur during agreement implementation as a result of the EU’s policy dialogue approach. Illustrative evidence is provided and the hypotheses are tested using statistical estimations of EU and US PTAs with environmental provisions on developing countries’ environmental policy reform.     

Service quality evaluation in the context of a technology laboratory

The intent of this research is to investigate how the customers of a technological control laboratory for civil construction materials perceived the quality of the services delivered by the lab, specifically in regard to the service of concrete compression testing. The popular SERVQUAL scale, a multidimensional instrument used to capture customer expectations and perceptions, was used as a model for the application of a survey. Exploratory factor analyses were employed to evaluate customers’ perceptions and experiences of service quality in regard to the dimensions and accompanying attributes of the SERVQUAL scale. Twenty attributes, which were grouped within five dimensions (Reliability, Assurance, Tangibles, Responsiveness, and Empathy), were identified, explaining 80.417% of the variance between customer expectations and perceptions and characterizing these dimensions on a modified SERVQUAL scale. Analysis of the results allowed us to identify discrepancies in perceived service quality compared with customers’ expectations. Most of the identified gaps between expectations and perceptions resulted in negative values.     

考虑驾驶方式的车辆与航空器交叉冲突评估*

为量化不同驾驶方式下车辆与航空器行驶风险,提出车辆与航空器交叉运行冲突评估模型,该模型将特种车辆驾驶方式分为激进、稳定、保守3类,综合驾驶特性和管制规则定义车辆速度演化规律,结合运行场景、间隔配备等要素确定冲突条件,并基于航空器与车辆实时速度、位置变化构造冲突评估模型。研究结果表明:冲突评估模型能够计算车辆与航空器在十型交叉口的冲突概率;激进方式下车辆先于航空器通过交叉口,风险概率均值相对最大,为0.679;保守方式下航空器先于车辆通过交叉口,最大间隔是安全间隔的4.7倍;稳定驾驶方式可兼顾安全和效率。本文模型能再现十型道口车辆与航空器交叉运行冲突产生、发展及解脱过程,计算结果可用于场面实时冲突识别和预警,能够为机场危险源识别和风险管控提供依据。     

门框墙内力计算模型的比较分析

依照《人民防空地下室设计规范》对门框墙构件设计计算时,其内力采用悬臂梁结构计算模型,但是门框墙结构从结构受力特性上分析更接近于四边约束的板式结构。在相同受力条件下,分别按基于规范的悬臂梁解析模型、基于板结构的门框墙结构模型和悬臂板结构模型,计算了固定端的内力。采用有限单元方法,对门框墙结构模型和悬臂板结构模型进行了数值计算。计算结果表明,基于规范的悬臂梁模型解析计算结果与门框墙结构模型数值计算结果(实际受力)相比,计算值偏大,大约增大10%。     

民航机组人员个体与组织匹配对安全绩效的影响——基于MOA模型的定性比较分析

人为因素成为当今航空飞行安全的最大隐患,针对人的安全科学管理至关重要.为进一步探索民航机组人员安全行为路径,寻求可能的行为管理切入点,将民航机组人员作为研究对象,以MOA模型(动机-机会-能力)为理论框架,应用模糊集定性比较分析方法,探究民航机组人员个体与组织两个层面的5个条件对员工安全绩效差异的多重并发复杂机制和因果...     

对现行民用建筑防火技术体系的分析与探讨

以"处方式"为主要特征的《建筑设计防火规范》、《高层民用建筑设计防火规范》等技术规范构成了我国现行民用建筑防火技术体系,其分类标准和技术体系尚需细化,诸多防火设计与建筑功能设计的矛盾仍无法得到有效解决.由于专家论证、性能化防火设计等途径尚未完善,因此细化建筑分类标准,完善防火技术手段,加快规范体系更新,仍是促进民用建筑防火技术体系不断完善成熟的有效途径.     

中国与欧盟的航空安全信息分类法比较

为探讨中国和欧盟政府间进行航空安全信息交换的可行性,从中国和欧盟各自航空安全信息系统的信息结构和报告内容出发,对中国和欧盟的航空安全信息分类法进行比较。结果表明,两个分类法的信息结构是相同的,不同之处在于主题差异、部分差异和属性差异。笔者认为,虽然存在3种差异,但两个分类法都是基于国际民航组织航空安全信息分类法设计的,信息报告内容具有很大的相似性,因此,从信息内容上看,中欧进行航空安全信息交换是可行的。同时,对如何改进我国航空安全信息分类法提出了建议。     

民用机场空防安全的风险管理研究

主要通过对民用机场空防安全存在的风险从作业人员、设备和设施、环境、管理等4方面进行识别;以系统的观点为基础,结合相关法规,建立空防安全风险评价指标体系;运用AHP方法对民用机场的空防安全进行风险研究,并通过研究、分析计算数据,查找、预测民用机场空防系统中存在的一些不足和缺陷;针对机场保安、管理、规章制度等方面的不足,结合中国民航和民用机场的现状及实际情况提出相应的建议性措施,以期达到最低事故率、最少损失和最优的安全投资效益。