基于模糊聚类的国防工程电磁脉冲防护策略探讨

为实现对国防工程内部众多电气设备进行有效合理的防护,达到国防工程对电磁脉冲的整体防护要求;以人防工程为例,分析人防工程内部电气设备的功能特点,确定其评估指标体系,利用模糊聚类的方法,对人防工程内部的电气设备进行模糊聚类,通过对模糊聚类结果的分析,探讨对不同种类的电气设备的防护策略。通过模糊聚类模型而实现的分类防护,可以提高人防工程对电磁脉冲的整体防护效率。采用的方法也可以应用到其他国防工程的电磁脉冲分类防护中去。     

航空安全信息管理的问题与对策

航空安全信息是民航实施安全风险控制和事故预防的基础,对航空安全水平的提高有重要的作用。笔者总结了民航安全信息的基本构成和来源,及其在安全风险识别、管理决策方面的功用;结合中国民航安全管理状况及行业发展趋势,分析了当前中国民航安全信息管理方面存在的主要问题,指出当前民航安全信息存在着数量不足、质量不高、交流共享困难、分析利用不充分等问题,不利于基于数据驱动的安全管理机制的建立和向规章符合性基础上的绩效管理的转变。针对安全信息管理的这些问题,文章建议民航局通过改善安全信息管理政策、建立航空企业安全信息共享平台、建立国家航空安全信息分析中心、开发安全信息分析利用工具等措施来改善安全信息的收集、分析利用和共享,为提高行业安全管理水平服务。     

基于贝叶斯网络的航空器看错落错跑道事件研究

目前,航空器看错、落错跑道事件在国际上是一个相当突出的安全问题,这个问题在我国近年也突显出来。导致航空器看错落错跑道的原因十分复杂,且此类事件及易引发严重的后果,造成人、财、物等多方面的损失,本文特对此类问题开展了一系列的研究。为了预防航空器看错、落错跑道事故的发生,查找诱发该类事故的因素,针对航空器看错、落错跑道事故的形成特点,笔者运用贝叶斯网络探讨其各影响因素间的关系和相互作用,该网络强大的逻辑推理能力,克服了不完备样本空间带来的不足,揭示了人、机、环境与管理因素相互作用的内在规律。为改善机场安全管理的科学性、可靠性,进一步降低事故率,提供了可靠的技术支持。     

民机适航噪声横向衰减特性分析及飞行试验研究

目的 进行民机适航噪声横向衰减建模及特性研究。方法 对民机适航噪声横向衰减工程模型进行分析,建立其主要影响因素的计算模型,基于模型设计等效飞行试验方法,以及试验数据设计横向衰减分析流程,通过某型国产民机噪声飞行试验,对横向衰减特性及模型进行分析。结果 民机适航的横向噪声受声传播效应、地面散射效应和动力装置/机体噪声安装效应等影响较大,声传播效应和地面散射效应分别对高频和低频成分具有显著影响,动力装置/机体噪声安装效应导致的噪声指向性差异也是影响横向衰减的主要因素。对于民机适航噪声评价量,横向衰减模型能够得到与飞行试验结果趋势一致的结果,但工程应用中仍需通过飞行试验进行修正。结论 提出的民机适航噪声横向衰减影响因素的量化计算模型以及等效飞行试验方法,可用于国产民机低噪声设计、噪声适航审定和机场周围噪声污染计算,服务于国产民机设计及适航取证。     

光纤传感器FBG和BOTDR应用于结构监测的若干比较研究

对建筑结构进行健康监测,可以防止和避免灾害的发生。传感器的选择和使用是进行结构监测时首先要考虑的问题。光纤传感器是一种新型的传感器,因种类不同在性能方面也相差较大。FBG(FiberBraggGating,光纤Bragg光栅)和BOTDR(BrillouinOpticalTimeDomainReflectometry,布里渊光时域反射计)是近些年来发展比较快的光纤传感器,本文介绍了这两种光纤传感器,并着重从两者传感的基本原理、传感系统组成、温度补偿研究和性能优劣等方面进行了详细的比较,得出了各自作为结构监测传感器的优缺点,为今后的监测选用提供了依据,使应用两者时能够做到扬长避短。     

震后民用建筑重建质量监管机制研究

针对震后民用建筑重建质量监管缺失问题,从政府、社会、责任主体三维视角出发,构建了一套促进重建工程质量持续改进的监管机制,并分析该机制具有时空性、多维性、循环性三大特征。另外,为便于社会力量对震后民用建筑重建工程质量进行监督,构建了一套针对非专业人员的工程质量评价指标体系,并利用模糊综合评价法,通过实例验证了该指标体系的有效性。最后,提出了优化该质量监管机制的建议。     

Industrial ecology flows of agriculture and food industry in Finland: utilizing by-products and wastes

Although half of the administrative units in China are said to have implemented their local Agenda 21, the promotion of sustainable communities is not pervasive. In this paper, we adopted a relatively untried mode of analysis and a socio-economic context to illustrate the potentials and failures of China's grassroots local government bodies in achieving sustainable waste management. Our study shows that, among the three main functions of sustainable waste management (ensuring environmental hygiene, provision of recycling logistics and changing the consumption pattern of the local community) for local governments, grassroots local government bodies in mainland China are only able to do the minimum, i.e. ensuring environmental hygiene and handling complaints. One of the reasons for the failure is that, despite the emphasis on capacity building in China's Agenda 21, the reality is that no action is taken to empower grassroots local government. Despite the high profile accorded by the Chinese central government to motivating local governments to formulate their own Agenda 21, local sustainability and waste management performance have little relevance to the appraisal systems of these government agents.     

Build it,but will they come? Evidence from consumer choice between gasoline and sugarcane ethanol

How consumers might switch from gasoline and diesel to alternative energy sources is not known, since the availability of alternatives is currently very limited. To bridge this gap, we exploit exogenous variation in ethanol prices at Brazil's pumps and uncover substantial consumer heterogeneity in the choice between long-established gasoline and an alternative that is similarly available and usable: sugarcane ethanol. We observe roughly 20% of flexible-fuel motorists choosing gasoline when gasoline is priced 20% above ethanol in energy-adjusted terms ($/mile) and, similarly, 20% of motorists choosing ethanol when ethanol is priced 20% above gasoline. We use transaction-level data to explore “non-price” characteristics which differentiate the two goods in the minds of different groups of consumers. Our findings suggest—and a counterfactual illustrates—that switching away from gasoline en masse, should this be desired, would require considerable price discounts to boost voluntary adoption, in the US and elsewhere.     

Providing health services during a civil war: the experience of a garrison town in South Sudan

The impact of conflict, particularly conflict arising during civil wars, on the provision of healthcare is a subject that has not been widely considered in conflict‐related research. Combatants often target health services to weaken or to defeat the enemy, while attempts to maintain or improve health systems also can comprise part of counter‐insurgency ‘hearts‐and‐minds’ strategies. This paper describes the dynamics associated with the provision of health services in Malakal, an important garrison town in South Sudan, during the second Sudanese civil war (1983–2005). Drawing on the concepts of opportunity hoarding and exploitation, it explores the social and political dynamics of service provision in and around the town during the war. These concepts provide a useful lens with which to understand better how health services are affected by conflict, while the empirical case study presented in the paper illustrates dynamics that may be repeated in other contexts. The concepts and case study set out in this paper should prove useful to healthcare providers working in conflict zones, including humanitarian aid agencies and their employees, increasing their understanding of the social and political dynamics that they are likely to face during future conflict‐related complex emergencies.     

汽油车技术发展对尾气排放影响研究进展

近年来,汽油车尾气排放已成为城市大气污染的主要来源之一.为减少油耗、温室气体和大气污染物的排放,汽油直喷技术(GDI)、醇类燃料替代以及混合动力系统等新兴技术被应用到汽车产品中,该研究对GDI发动机汽车、醇类燃料车和混合动力车的颗粒物(PM)、氮氧化物(NO_x)、总碳氢化合物(THC)的排放研究进行梳理和总结,综合评估先进动力技术和醇类燃料的环境影响.结果表明:GDI汽油车的PM排放因子为进气道喷射(PFI)汽油车的1.2~5倍,加装汽油颗粒物捕集器(GPF)后GDI汽油车的PM排放大幅下降,同时具备催化能力的GPF可减少NO_x和THC排放.与汽油车相比,乙醇燃料车PM排放量减少了35%~56%,尾气THC排放减少了10%~44%,但挥发性有机物(VOCs)蒸发排放增加了20%~41%,其主要来自于日呼吸损失.各类型车辆的NO_x排放差异较小,比较结果存在一定的不确定性.混合动力车相比传统内燃机汽车污染物减排优势明显,可积极推广其在公共交通和私家车队中的应用.建议今后研究应着重关注以下几个方面:①GDI和混合动力车在实际条件下排放污染物的环境影响;②醇类燃料车VOCs蒸发排放控制技术及相关法规标准的完善;③新兴技术汽油车排放污染物的生成机理及其影响因素.