民航安全信息个体自愿报告意愿的影响因素研究

在前人研究成果的基础上,选择认知水平、同事顾虑、上级领导抵触、利己考虑、集体考虑、系统本身、安全文化7个影响因素,并依据SCASS分类标准,将上报意愿分为6个维度(报告提交经验、航空器不良运行或设备缺陷报告提交意愿、自身违规差错报告提交意愿、空防安全事件或隐患报告提交意愿、执行标准或飞行程序困难事件报告提交意愿、同事发生此类事件报告提交意愿),构建并验证个体自愿上报意愿的影响因素模型。研究发现,各类事件上报意愿分别受到不同的因素影响,其中,认知水平和安全文化对上报意愿起到正向影响,其他影响因素起到负向影响。本研究为民航单位针对性提高员工上报意愿提供理论指导。     

Effect of initial temperature on the explosion pressure of various liquid fuels and their blends

In this work, the effect of initial temperature on the explosion pressure, P_ex, of various liquid fuels (isooctane, toluene and methanol) and their blends (isooctane-toluene and methanol-toluene, with three different fuel-fuel ratios) was investigated by performing experiments in a 20-l sphere at different concentrations of vaporized fuel in air. The initial temperature was varied from 333 K to 413 K.Results show that, as the fuel-air equivalence ratio, Φ, is increased, a transition occurs from a “thermodynamics-driven” explosion regime to a “radiant heat losses-driven” explosion regime. The maximum pressure, P_max, is found in the former regime (Φ < 3), which is characterized by a trend of decreasing P_ex with increasing initial temperature. This trend has been explained by thermodynamics. In the latter regime (Φ > 3), P_ex increases with increasing initial temperature. This trend has been addressed to the decrease in emissivity (and, thus, radiant heat losses) with the increase in temperature.     

民用飞机机载设备振动试验要求和应用分析(一) DO 160F/G民用固定翼飞机机载设备振动试验要求

阐述了民用飞机机载设备振动环境的特点和振动试验分类,归纳和汇总了DO 160F/G中的各类民用飞机机载设备的振动试验要求,包括振动谱、振动量值和试验持续时间等,并进行了分析和说明,以便于查阅和使用。最后对民用飞机机载设备振动试验方法的应用进行了概括,介绍了民用固定翼飞机的机载设备振动试验要求,按设备在机上的区域不同进行分类,详细地对比说明各个位置上设备的振动试验要求;介绍了民用直升机的机载设备振动试验要求。     

民用飞机机载设备振动试验要求和应用分析（二）

阐述了民用飞机机载设备振动环境的特点和振动试验分类,归纳和汇总了DO 160 F/G中的各类民用飞机机载设备的振动试验要求,包括振动谱、振动量值和试验持续时间等,并进行了分析和说明,以便于查阅和使用。最后对民用飞机机载设备振动试验方法的应用进行了概括,介绍了民用固定翼飞机的机载设备振动试验要求,按设备在机上的区域不同进行分类,详细地对比说明各个位置上设备的振动试验要求;介绍了民用直升机的机载设备振动试验要求。     

The Impending Peak and Decline of Petroleum Production: an Underestimated Challenge for Conservation of Ecological Integrity

Abstract: In the last few decades petroleum has been consumed at a much faster pace than new reserves have been discovered. The point at which global oil extraction will attain a peak (“peak oil”) and begin a period of unavoidable decline is approaching. This eventuality will drive fundamental changes in the quantity and nature of energy flows through the human economic system, which probably will be accompanied by economic turmoil, political conflicts, and a high level of social tension. Besides being a geological and economic issue, peak oil is also a fundamental concern as it pertains to ecological systems and conservation because economics is a subsystem of the global ecosystem and changes in human energy‐related behaviors can lead to a broad range of effects on natural ecosystems, ranging from overuse to abandonment. As it becomes more difficult to meet energy demands, environmental considerations may be easily superseded. Given the vital importance of ecosystems and ecosystem services in a postpetroleum era, it is crucially important to wisely manage our ecosystems during the transition period to an economy based on little or no use of fossil fuels. Good policies can be formulated through awareness and understanding gained from scenario‐based assessments. Presently, most widely used global scenarios of environmental change do not incorporate resource limitation, including those of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Considering the potential magnitude of the effects of peak oil on society and nature, the development of resource‐constrained scenarios should be addressed immediately. Ecologists and conservation biologists are in an important position to analyze the situation and provide guidance, yet the topic is noticeably absent from ecological discussions. We urge politicians, corporate chief executives, thought leaders, and citizens to consider this problem seriously because it is likely to develop into one of the key environmental issues of the 21st century.     

民航不安全事件报告危险源识别模型

为了识别民航不安全事件的发生原因,从民航不安全事件报告出发,提出了一种基于LDA主题模型和Word2Vec模型的民航不安全事件报告危险源识别模型。首先,构建危险源标签分类表,选取民航不安全事件报告与Wiki中文数据库作为数据源,然后利用LDA主题模型得出民航不安全事件报告的主题概率分布与词概率分布,最后利用Wiki中文数据库训练Word2Vec模型得到词向量,进而计算文档主题与不同危险源标签之间的相似度,得出民航不安全事件报告的危险源分类。结果表明,该模型的精准率为77.7%、召回率为86.8%、F为82.0%,能够有效识别各民航不安全事件报告的危险源。     

一种新的飞行事故征候率监视与控制方法

为了改进民用航空飞行安全的监控手段,探讨了一种飞行事故征候率的监视和控制方法。通过采用W检验法,对中国民航2008年各月飞行事故征候率统计数据进行正态分布拟合优度检验。结果表明:在10%的显著水平下,飞行事故征候率总体服从正态分布。假设正常情况下,飞行事故征候率超过警戒值的概率仅为0.1%,选择该概率为确定警戒值的标准。根据前一年12个月的飞行事故征候率统计数据和确定警戒值的标准,以子样均值作为母体均值估计量,子样无偏方差的平方根作为母体标准差的估计量,可计算出当年飞行事故征候率警戒值;此外,还提出了控制民用航空安全水平的准则。     

不同规模民用机场项目主要环境影响对比分析

按照在民航运输系统中所起的作用划分，我国民用机场可分为枢纽机场、干线机场和支线机场。由于建设规模、航空业务量不同，各类机场环境影响的范围、程度和特点也不尽相同。通过对国内机场建设项目环境影响的案例和相关研究成果进行总结，从声环境、环境空气、生态、水环境、固体废物等方面对比分析了不同规模机场的环境影响的特点，为机场选址、设计、规划等提供参考。     

基于系统动力学(SD)的民航可持续安全发展决策研究

为了解决民航行业保障能力与发展需求之间的矛盾所带来的安全问题,在对民航行业进行系统分析的基础上,利用系统动力学方法建立了民航可持续安全发展决策流图。通过专家访谈和文献分析法构建了3种政策场景。利用Vensim软件对模型进行了仿真,结果表明:在保障能力不变的条件下,2015年将航班审批率降低0.3,可实现行业的安全目标,但航班量在2015—2025年发展十分缓慢;在发展水平不变的条件下,2015年将保障能力提高0.3,可在2021年实现行业的安全目标;在可持续发展的策略下,在2015—2018年将航班审批率降低0.3、2018年之后将航班审批率提高0.4,在2015年将保障能力提高0.2,可实现我国民航行业的可持续安全发展。     

土木建筑施工安全生产聚集性活动的安全专项管理

土木建筑安全生产形势严峻,重特大事故时有发生,因此控制工程建设过程的安全生产事故意义重大。基于作业条件危险性评价原理和安全生产责任与事故管理机制,提出土木建筑施工作业活动聚集性安全生产专项管理创新方法。基于国内相关研究成果,建议了土木建筑施工活动聚集性程度的分类标准、分级管理模式,以及聚集性活动安全专项管理计划。