Refuge‐Effect Hypothesis and the Demise of the Dodo

The Dodo was last sighted on the inshore island of Ile d'Ambre in 1662, nearly 25 years after the previous sighting on the mainland of Mauritius. It has been suggested that its survival on the inshore island is representative of the refuge effect. Understanding what constitutes significant persistence is fundamental to conservation. I tested the refuge‐effect hypothesis for the persistence of the Dodo (Raphus cucullatus) on an inshore island beyond that of the mainland population. For a location to be considered a refuge, most current definitions suggest that both spatial and temporal isolation from the cause of disturbance are required. These results suggest the island was not a refuge for the Dodo because the sighting in 1662 was not temporally isolated from that of the mainland sightings. Furthermore, with only approximately 350 m separating Ile d'Ambre from the mainland of Mauritius, it is unlikely this population of Dodos was spatially isolated. Hipótesis del Efecto Refugio y la Desaparición del Dodo     

Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a coral reef model using Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Coral reefs are threatened ecosystems, so it is important to have predictive models of their dynamics. Most current models of coral reefs fall into two categories. The first is simple heuristic models which provide an abstract understanding of the possible behaviour of reefs in general, but do not describe real reefs. The second is complex simulations whose parameters are obtained from a range of sources such as literature estimates. We cannot estimate the parameters of these models from a single data set, and we have little idea of the uncertainty in their predictions.We have developed a compromise between these two extremes, which is complex enough to describe real reef data, but simple enough that we can estimate parameters for a specific reef from a time series. In previous work, we fitted this model to a long-term data set from Heron Island, Australia, using maximum likelihood methods. To evaluate predictions from this model, we need estimates of the uncertainty in our parameters. Here, we obtain such estimates using Bayesian Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We do this for versions of the model in which corals are aggregated into a single state variable (the three-state model), and in which corals are separated into four state variables (the six-state model), in order to determine the appropriate level of aggregation. We also estimate the posterior distribution of predicted trajectories in each case.In both cases, the fitted trajectories were close to the observed data, but we had doubts about the biological plausibility of some parameter estimates. We suggest that informative prior distributions incorporating expert knowledge may resolve this problem. In the six-state model, the posterior distribution of state frequencies after 40 years contained two divergent community types, one dominated by free space and soft corals, and one dominated by acroporid, pocilloporid, and massive corals. The three-state model predicts only a single community type. We conclude that the three-state model hides too much biological heterogeneity, but we need more data if we are to obtain reliable predictions from the six-state model. It is likely that there will be similarly large, but currently unevaluated, uncertainty in the predictions of other coral reef models, many of which are much more complex and harder to fit to real data.     

浑太河流域氮磷空间异质性及其对土地利用结构的响应

利用2009年8月和2010年6月浑太河流域河流水体采样数据,结合GIS技术和地统计学方法,分析了汛期TN(总氮)、NH₄+-N(氨氮)、NO₃--N(硝酸盐氮)、TP(总磷)和PO₄3-(磷酸盐)在地表水体中的空间变异特征,并探讨了流域尺度上土地利用对氮磷营养物质的影响. 结果表明:NH₄+-N、PO₄3-和TN均受到结构性因素的影响,表现出一定空间相关性变异特征;NO₃--N和TP主要受到随机性因素的影响,表现出极弱的空间相关性变异特征. 汛期流域林地、农田和居民用地比例与氮素呈显著相关,农田和草地用地比例与氮磷均呈显著相关.可以初步推测,林地、农田和居民用地是控制氮素空间分异特征的结构性因素,农田和草地是控制磷素空间分异特征的结构性因素.      

降雨资料时间序列长度对降雨侵蚀力平均值置信度的影响

降雨资料时间序列长度是计算多年平均降雨侵蚀力过程中的重要不确定性因素.论文以中国601个气象站1980-2009年逐月降雨资料为数据源,利用Wischmeier经验公式计算了各气象站逐年降雨侵蚀力(R因子),用简单随机抽样方法抽取样本容量分别为30 a、 20 a、 10 a和5 a 四种不同的R值样本,计算了R平均值相对允许误差10%和25%条件下抽样估计的置信度.结果表明:降雨资料的时间序列长度对R平均值的估计置信度有显著影响;R平均值置信度存在明显的地域差异,长江以南、 青藏高原东部以及河西走廊南部的祁连山地区置信度较高;在降雨资料有限的情况下,必须根据土壤侵蚀研究的精度要求分析R平均值的抽样误差及其置信度,以保证土壤侵蚀定量预报的客观性与准确性.     

A critique of the official report on the evacuation of the World Trade Center: continued doubts

This paper criticises the conclusions and the unanswered questions in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)'s official report on the evacuation of the World Trade Center in New York City, United States, on 11 September 2001. It reviews the extent to which the report disregards several conventional statistical methods and comments on the NIST's refusal to share the machine‐readable data file with the scientific community for replication and further analysis. Problems lie in the sampling methods employed, the treatment of missing data, the use of ordinary least squares (OLS) with binary dependent variables, the failure to document the scalability of the scales used, the lack of tests to check for constant error variance, and the absence of overall fit tests of the model. There are also conceptual and theoretical issues, such as the absence in the report of considerations of the influence of group‐level processes and their impact on the collective behaviour of evacuating collectivities.     

钻井井喷爆炸事故分析及对策

针对井喷爆炸事故造成的巨大经济和环境问题,从消除井场点火源出发,讨论了井喷发生后防止爆炸的问题。基于井喷爆炸事故统计信息,利用事故树法,分析了井场可能存在的点火源,在此基础上提出井场防止井喷爆炸的措施。分析发现井喷爆炸主要分布在井喷后小于5分钟和井喷后大于1小时时间段,点火源主要为井场存在的点火源和后续抢救工作时带入的点火源;井场点火源主要分为明火、电火花、撞击火花和静电火花,通过井喷爆炸事故统计分析,电火花和撞击火花同样应该引起重视。     

Performance and kinetics of iron-based oxygen carriers reduced by carbon monoxide for chemical looping combustion

Chemical looping combustion is a promising technology for energy conversion due to its low-carbon, high-efficiency, and environmental-friendly feature. A vital issue for CLC process is the development of oxygen carrier, since it must have sufficient reactivity. The mechanism and kinetics of CO reduction on iron-based oxygen carriers namely pure Fe₂O₃ and Fe₂O₃ supported by alumina (Fe₂O₃/Al₂O₃) were investigated using thermo-gravimetric analysis. Fe₂O₃/Al₂O₃ showed better reactivity over bare Fe₂O₃ toward CO reduction. This was well supported by the observed higher rate constant for Fe₂O₃/Al₂O₃ over pure Fe₂O₃ with respective activation energy of 41.1±2.0 and 33.3±0.8 kJ·mol⁻¹. The proposed models were compared via statistical approach comprising Akaike information criterion with correction coupled with F-test. The phase-boundary reaction and diffusion control models approximated to 95% confidence level along with scanning electron microscopy results; revealed the promising reduction reactions of pure Fe₂O₃ and Fe₂O₃/Al₂O₃. The boosting recital of iron-based oxygen carrier support toward efficient chemical looping combustion could be explained accurately through the present study.     

PRESENCE AND DISTRIBUTION OF CHLORINATED ORGANIC COMPOUNDS IN STREAMBED SEDIMENTS,NEW JERSEY1

ABSTRACT: Concentrations of 18 hydrophobic chlorinated organic compounds in streambed sediments from 100 sites throughout New Jersey were examined to determine (1) which compounds were detected most frequently, (2) whether detection frequencies differed among selected drainage basins, and (3) whether concentrations differed significantly among selected drainage basins. Twelve drainage basins across New Jersey that contain a range of land-use patterns and population densities were selected to represent various types and degrees of development. To ensure an adequate number of samples for statistical comparison among drainage basins, the 12 selected basins were consolidated into seven drainage areas on the basis of similarities in land-use patterns and population densities. Additionally, data for three classes of chlorinated organic compounds in streambed sediments from 255 sites throughout New Jersey were examined to determine whether the presence of these compounds in streambed sediments is related to the type and degree of development within the drainage area of each sampling site. Chlorinated organic compounds detected most frequently within the seven representative drainage areas were DDT, DDE, DDD, chlordane, dieldrin, and PCBs. DDT, DDE, and DDD, which were the most widely distributed organic compounds, were detected in about 60 to 100 percent of the samples from all drainage areas but one (where the detection rate for these compounds was about 20 to 40 percent). Chiordane and dieldrin were detected in about 80 to 100 percent of samples from highly urbanized and populated drainage areas; detection frequencies for these compounds tended to be smaller in less developed and populated areas. PCBs were detected in about 40 to 85 percent of samples from all drainage areas; detection frequencies were highest in the most heavily developed and populated areas. Analysis of variance on rank-transformed organic compound concentrations normalized to sediment organic carbon content was used to evaluate differences in concentrations among the seven representative drainage areas. Chlordane and PCBs were the chlorinated organic compounds with the most highly elevated concentrations in streambed sediments across the State. Median normalized concentrations of all six of the most frequently detected chlorinated organic compounds were highest in the most heavily urbanized and populated drainage area and lowest in the less populated, predominantly agricultural or forested areas. Concentrations of DDT and DDE, however, did not differ significantly among most of the drainage areas. Concentrations of DDD, chlordane, dieldrin, and PCBs differed significantly among drainage areas. The highest median normalized concentrations were found in samples from the most heavily urbanized and populated areas, and the lowest were in samples from the least developed, most heavily forested area. Logistic regression was used to examine relations between the presence of hydrophobic chlorinated organic compounds in streambed sediments at specified concentrations and variables that characterize the type and degree of development within the drainage areas of 255 sites across New Jersey. The explanatory variables found most useful for predicting the presence of chlorinated organic compounds in streambed sediments include total population and amounts (in square kilometers) of various land-use categories. Logistic regression equations were developed to identify significant relations between population and amounts of specific land-use categories within drainage areas and the probability of detecting chlorinated organic contaminants in streambed sediments. These relations can be used to assist in the identification of geographic regions of primary concern for contamination of bed sediments by chlorinated organic compounds across the State.     

EFFECTS OF BASIN-SCALE TIMBER HARVEST ON WATER YIELD AND PEAK STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: Streamflow changes resulting from clearcut harvest of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) on a 2145 hectare drainage basin are evaluated by the paired watershed technique. Thirty years of continuous daily streamflow records were used in the analysis, including 10 pre-harvest and 20 post-harvest years of data. Regression analysis was used to estimate the effects of timber harvest on annual water yield and annual peak discharge. Removal of 14 million board feet of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) from about 526 hectares (25 percent of the basin) produced an average of 14.7 cm additional water yield per year, or an increase of 52 percent. Mean annual daily maximum discharge also increased by 1.6 cubic meters per second or 66 percent. Increases occurred primarily during the period of May through August with little or no change in wintertime streamflows. Results suggest that clearcutting conifers in relatively large watersheds (> 2000 ha) may produce significant increases in water yield and flooding. Implications of altered streamflow regimes are important for assessing the future ecological integrity of stream ecosystems subject to large-scale timber harvest and other disturbances that remove a substantial proportion of the forest cover.     

INDEXED SEQUENTIAL HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR HYDROPOWER CAPACITY ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: The indexed sequential hydrologic modeling (ISM) methodology is utilized by the Western Area Power Administration as the basis for risk-based estimation of project-dependable hydropower capacity for several federally owned/operated projects. ISM is a technique based on synthetic generation of a series of overlapping short-term inflow sequences obtained directly from the historical record. The validity of ISM is assessed through application to the complex multireservoir hydropower system of the Colorado River basin for providing risk estimates associated with determination of reliable hydrogeneration capacity. Performance of ISM is compared with results from stochastically generated streamflow input data to the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS). Statistical analysis and comparison of results are based on monthly power capacity, energy generation, and downstream water deliveries. Results indicate that outputs generated from ISM synthetically generated sequences display an acceptable correspondence with those obtained from stochastically generated hydrologic data for the Colorado River Basin.