How does the spatial structure of habitat loss affect the eco-epidemic dynamics?

Habitat loss is considered as one of the primary causes of species extinction, especially for a species that also suffers from an epidemic disease. Little attention has been paid to the combined effect of habitat loss and epidemic transmission on the species spatiotemporal dynamics. Here, a spatial model of the parasite–host/prey–predator eco-epidemiological system with habitat loss was studied. Habitat patches in the model, instead of undergoing a random loss, were spatially clustered by different degrees. Not only the quantity of habitat loss but also its clustering degree was shown to affect the equilibrium of the system. The infection rate and the probability of successful predation were keys to determine the spatial patterns of species. The epidemic disease is more likely to break out if only a small amount of suitable patches were lost. Counter-intuitively, infected preys are more sensitive to habitat loss than predators if the lost patches are highly clustered. This result is new to eco-epidemiology and implies a possibility of using spatial arrangement of suitable (or unsuitable) patches to control the spread of epidemics in the ecological system.     

A derivation of the statistical characteristics of forest fires

The analysis of large data sets concerning fires in various forested areas of the world has pointed out that burned areas can often be described by different power-law distributions for small, medium and large fires and that a scaling law for the time intervals separating successive fires is fulfilled. The attempts of deriving such statistical laws from purely theoretical arguments have not been fully successful so far, most likely because important physical and/or biological factors controlling forest fires were not taken into account. By contrast, the two-layer spatially extended forest model we propose in this paper encapsulates the main characteristics of vegetational growth and fire ignition and propagation, and supports the empirically discovered statistical laws. Since the model is fully deterministic and spatially homogeneous, the emergence of the power and scaling laws does not seem to necessarily require meteorological randomness and geophysical heterogeneity, although these factors certainly amplify the chaoticity of the fires. Moreover, the analysis suggests that the existence of different power-laws for fires of various scale might be due to the two-layer structure of the forest which allows the formation of different kinds of fires, i.e. surface, crown, and mixed fires.     

Outlier detection in phosphorus dry deposition rates measured in South Florida

Dry atmospheric deposition contributes a significant amount of phosphorus to the Everglades of South Florida. Measurement of this deposition is problematic, because samples often are contaminated to varying degrees by bird droppings and other foreign materials. This study attempted to detect and remove the outliers in phosphorus (P) flux rates measured from dry deposition samples. Visual inspection of the samples, recorded in field notes, found that 30.1% of the samples contained animal droppings and frogs. Some of the samples with droppings and frogs (2.3%) had P values greater than 884 μg P m⁻² d⁻¹ (a value twice the standard deviation of the raw data mean), and were removed from further analysis. Outlier detection statistics based on a linear regression were then used for additional data screening. Eight stations in the network of 19 were removed because high contamination precluded the use of the regression model. Of the remaining samples, 15.7% were identified through the regression procedure as contaminated and were removed. The 11 station mean for P dry deposition was 85.8±79.0 μg P m⁻² d⁻¹, prior to the regression analysis, and 74.8±75.1 μg P m⁻² d⁻¹ after removal.     

一级动力学反应方程参数估计中若干问题的讨论

在农药的环境行为研究中,常用一级动力学反应方程来模拟农药的降解或残留。本文论述了用线性回归分析法估计一级化学动力学方程参数时存在的初始浓度飘移和非本义最优化问题,讨论了与此相关联的试验设置、安全间隔期、分段模拟和试验数据处理等问题,提出了解决问题的初步设想。     

2009年9-10月国内环境事件

简要统计了2009年9-10月国内发生的各种环境事件94起,包括沙尘天气5起,污染事件13起,地震47起,山体滑坡和泥石流15起,旱灾3起以及其他自然灾害11起.     

SBR工艺数学模型研究进展及其应用

SBR法具有操作简单、运行方式灵活、占地面积小等优点,用于处理间歇排放的工业废水及中小城镇污水取得了巨大成功,并在全世界范围内迅速得到发展和推广应用。随着自控技术的飞速发展和对SBR工艺机理的深入认识,围绕SBR工艺数学模型的研究引起各国学者的重视。回顾了目前SBR法数学模型的研究进展和应用现状,并总结和比较了各种数学模型的优势和不足,特别是对机理模型（白箱模型）和统计模型（黑箱模型）进行了分类、归纳和分析。所有这些数学模型建模与仿真的目的都是为了实现SBR工艺优化控制,为实际SBR污水处理厂的运行提供依据和技术支持。虽然以前的研究有力地推动了数学模型在SBR工艺中的应用,但是在实际应用中还存在很多值得深入研究的问题。最后对SBR工艺数学模型尚待解决的问题进行了总结,并指出今后SBR数学模型的发展方向。     

湖南省环境统计数据综合分析现状及改善建议

环境统计是环境保护工作的基础,环境统计数据的综合分析是环境形势判断和决策的一个重要前提条件。随着环境管理和经济管理工作的深入发展,环境统计指标和统计范围不断扩大,做好环境统计年报工作和污染物排放的综合分析评价工作,对完成好各项环境保护目标,对污染减排核查核算提供基础数据支持具有重要意义。     

金属材料高温疲劳-蠕变寿命预测方法研究进展

从线性累积损伤、应力参量控制模式、应变参量控制模式、损伤力学、断裂力学、多元统计以及神经网络等7个方面研讨了国内外金属材料在高温条件下疲劳-蠕变寿命预测方法的主要研究进展与成果。其中,线性累积损伤主要应用于高温蠕变——低周疲劳的寿命预测;应变控制模式的预测方法成功地把蠕变因素引入到疲劳寿命预测模型中;多元统计以及神经网络是金属材料进行寿命预测的新方法。     

Elemental levels in tree-bark and epiphytic-lichen transplants at a mixed environment in mainland Portugal, and comparisons with an in situ lichen

Samples of Platanus hybrida Brot. bark and Flavoparmelia caperata (L.) Hale thalli, from a clean area in northern Portugal (Bai?o), were transplanted into an exposure location at the south-western Atlantic coast, impacted by urban-industrial emissions (Sines), for a 10-month long experiment. Bark pieces were confined into nylon bags (2-mm mesh), and lichen thalli kept with their bark substrate (Pinus pinaster (Ait.) Sol.). Every two months, a double set of transplants (one for bark, one for lichens) was brought back into the laboratory, together with native samples of Evernia prunastri (L.) Ach. Following suitable cleansing and preparation procedures, field samples were put through INAA for elemental assessment. The results indicate that, regardless of signal magnitude, (1) concentrations in bark and lichen transplants are significantly correlated with atmospheric deposition for an appreciable number of elements; (2) there are a number of significant correlations between transplanted and native samples, and again between the latter and the deposition; and (3) the elements with biological patterns that follow the deposition in either transplanted or native samples (Co, V) are the very ones whose bioaccumulation seems to benefit from an alternation of wet-dry periods, which fits the precipitation record of the test site during the exposure term.     

Long-term trends and short-term variability of water quality in Skive Fjord, Denmark – nutrient load and mussels are the primary pressures and drivers that influence water quality

Nineteen years of monitoring data from the eutrophic Skive Fjord, Denmark were examined for linkages to external pressures and drivers, including nutrient inputs, meteorology and stocks of blue mussels. Linkages were examined by: 1) time-series analysis to document effects of nutrient reduction programs, 2) Pearson Rank correlations, 3) multivariate statistical analysis (PLS) to identify water quality variables with high predictability and their linkages to pressures, and 4) regression analysis to quantify relationships between pressures and water quality. Freshwater input, nitrogen load and phosphorus load showed decreasing trends through the period 1984–2002. The load reductions were only partially translated into trends in water quality: phosphorus decreased in most seasons, while total nitrogen decreased during winter and spring only. Phosphorus concentration had the highest predictability (explained by seasonal temperature variation) followed by transparency, silicate, tot-N, chlorophyll-a, primary productivity, phytoplankton diversity and phytoplankton turnover. The variation in pressures other than nutrient input confounded the relations between loads and water quality. High biomass of mussels led to reduced chlorophyll-a and increased transparency, while short-term variability in water column mixing led to changes in chlorophyll-a due to nutrient entrainment and coupling to benthic mussels.