安全统计学的创建及其研究

基于安全科学、系统科学和统计学原理,提出安全统计学定义,并分析其内涵。从统计研究的侧重点、安全系统统计范围、典型行业安全统计、具体统计对象和统计指标等方面构建安全统计学的分支体系,并阐述各分支体系主要研究内容。通过对安全统计学的研究方法和分析方法的比较,得出不同方法的优缺点和适用性。最后,就行业安全统计学、伤亡事故统计学、自然灾害统计学、职业健康安全统计学、安全经济统计学和安全社会统计学进行实践研究,阐述安全统计学的研究内容及发展方向。     

The Regionalization of National‐Scale SPARROW Models for Stream Nutrients1

Schwarz, Gregory E., Richard B. Alexander, Richard A. Smith, and Stephen D. Preston, 2011. The Regionalization of National‐Scale SPARROW Models for Stream Nutrients. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1151‐1172. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00581.x Abstract: This analysis modifies the parsimonious specification of recently published total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) national‐scale SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes models to allow each model coefficient to vary geographically among three major river basins of the conterminous United States. Regionalization of the national models reduces the standard errors in the prediction of TN and TP loads, expressed as a percentage of the predicted load, by about 6 and 7%. We develop and apply a method for combining national‐scale and regional‐scale information to estimate a hybrid model that imposes cross‐region constraints that limit regional variation in model coefficients, effectively reducing the number of free model parameters as compared to a collection of independent regional models. The hybrid TN and TP regional models have improved model fit relative to the respective national models, reducing the standard error in the prediction of loads, expressed as a percentage of load, by about 5 and 4%. Only 19% of the TN hybrid model coefficients and just 2% of the TP hybrid model coefficients show evidence of substantial regional specificity (more than ±100% deviation from the national model estimate). The hybrid models have much greater precision in the estimated coefficients than do the unconstrained regional models, demonstrating the efficacy of pooling information across regions to improve regional models.     

Stationarity of Streamflow Records and Their Influence on Bankfull Regional Curves1

Haucke, Jessica and Katherine A. Clancy, 2011. Stationarity of Streamflow Records and Their Influence on Bankfull Regional Curves. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1338–1347. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00590.x Abstract: Bankfull regional curves, which are curves that establish relationships among channel morphology, discharge, drainage area, are used extensively for stream restoration. These curves are developed upon the assumption that streamflows maintain stationarity over the entire record. We examined this assumption in the Driftless Area of southwestern Wisconsin where agricultural soil retention practices have changed, and precipitation has increased since the 1970s. We developed a bankfull regional curve for this area using field surveys of bankfull channel performed during 2008‐2009 and annual series of peak streamflows for 10 rivers with streamflow records ranging from the 1930s to 2009. We found bankfull flows to correlate to a 1.1 return period. To evaluate gage data statistics, we used the sign test to compare our channel morphology to historic 1.5 return period discharge (Q_1.5) for five time periods: 1959‐1972, 1973‐1992, 1993‐2008, 1999‐2008, and the 1959‐2008 period of record. Analysis of the historic gage data indicated that there has been a more than 30% decline in Q_1.5 since 1959. Our research suggests that land conservation practices may have a larger impact on gaging station stationarity than annual precipitation changes do. Additionally, historic peak flow data from gages, which have records that span land conservation changes, may need to be truncated to represent current flow regimes.     

The Impacts of Water Conservation Strategies on Water Use: Four Case Studies1

Tsai, Yushiou, Sara Cohen, and Richard M. Vogel, 2011. The Impacts of Water Conservation Strategies on Water Use: Four Case Studies. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):687‐701. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00534.x Abstract: We assessed impacts on water use achieved by implementation of controlled experiments relating to four water conservation strategies in four towns within the Ipswich watershed in Massachusetts. The strategies included (1) installation of weather‐sensitive irrigation controller switches (WSICS) in residences and municipal athletic fields; (2) installation of rainwater harvesting systems in residences; (3) two outreach programs: (a) free home indoor water use audits and water fixture retrofit kits and (b) rebates for low‐water‐demand toilets and washing machines; and (4) soil amendments to improve soil moisture retention at a municipal athletic field. The goals of this study are to summarize the effectiveness of the four water conservation strategies and to introduce nonparametric statistical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of these conservation strategies in reducing water use. It was found that (1) the municipal WSICS significantly reduced water use; (2) residences with high irrigation demand were more likely than low water users to experience a substantial demand decrease when equipped with the WSICS; (3) rainwater harvesting provided substantial rainwater use, but these volumes were small relative to total domestic water use and relative to the natural fluctuations in domestic water use; (4) both the audits/retrofit and rebate programs resulted in significant water savings; and (5) a modeling approach showed potential water savings from soil amendments in ball fields.     

近十年我国安全系统工程学发展研究综述

安全系统工程学是近几年发展起来的新兴学科,作为我国安全工程专业专业课设置中的一个重要内容,其地位显得越来越重要。为了了解和掌握近年我国安全系统工程学的研究进展,用文献统计的方法对近十年（2000-2009年）中国期刊全文数据库、中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库、中国博士学位论文全文数据库等收录的关于安全系统工程学方面的论文进行检索;分析、比较统计的结果后发现,近十年我国安全系统工程学发展迅速并有逐年上升趋势,期间安全系统工程学自身内容也逐步发展完善,其研究领域广泛分布于其他各领域学科中,该阶段安全系统工程学的研究内容主要集中于系统安全分析和安全评价上。根据统计结果以及现阶段我国安全系统工程学的发展现状,结合安全科学和系统工程的知识对今后学科发展提出建议。     

数字水印技术在古典家具数字博物馆版权保护中的研究

近年来,古典家具越来越受到人们的青睐。但是目前还未见有关针对古典文物家具数字博物馆的相关研究报道。本文首先介绍了数字博物馆的特点以及所构建的明清古典文物家具数字博物馆,然后运用基于混沌理论的Logistic映射置乱方法对水印图像进行加密,以及变换域算法中基于DCT域的数字水印方法对数字博物馆的数字图像进行了版权保护,并利用Matlab软件进行水印图像的嵌入、提取和检测实验,取得了较好的效果,说明数字水印技术在文物家具图像版权保护方面具有很好的作用。     

应急管理综合统计指标体系设计与构建——基于北京市应急管理实践探索

为解决我国近些年应急管理体制改革背景下出现的现行统计指标与现行应急管理职责职能不匹配、业务需求不协调的问题,更好地适应我国应急管理新形势新任务新要求,在梳理北京市应急管理综合统计指标体系演化脉络的基础上,从应急管理业务职能入手,构建包含3个层级、11大类、523项统计指标的应急管理综合统计指标体系及相关工作机制,且经过北京多年的实践应用和持续改进表明,该综合统计指标体系具有较好的科学性和适用性,对其他同类应急管理主体单位的综合统计指标体系建立具有一定的启示和借鉴作用。     

论中国山水画与古典园林的关系

中国山水画与古典园林相互之间关系密切.在历史上几乎都是相互制约、相互推进.在现代园林启蒙完成之时,重新研讨中国山水画与古典园林,取其精华,去其糟粕,对园林的现代化具有特别的意义.     

辽宁老秃顶子国家级自然保护区植物区系调查研究

植物区系是在特有的历史条件下发展产生而形成的某一特定地区生长的全部植物类型的总和,是植物科、属、种的自然综合体。它多数是以种群方式存在的,对应组成该地区植被的主体,也是大自然地理生态环境中的集中反映和自然保护区生态环境变化的依据。研究老秃顶子国家级自然保护区的植物区系的组成和地理组成部分等相关资料,对于分析研究植物区系与自然地理要素之间的关系意义重大。     

2007年7-8月国内环境事件

简要统计了2007年7-8月国内发生的各种环境事件148起,包括沙尘天气1起,污染事件24起,地震14起,山体滑坡和泥石流29起,旱灾5起,以及其他自然灾害75起.对自然灾害进行了讨论.