面向防洪救灾的人口统计数据空间化研究——以扶余县为例

人口是重要的受灾体,准确的人口空间分布信息是防洪救灾工作的重要依据。将人口统计数据与遥感数据相结合,借助GIS手段来空间化人口统计数据,模拟人口空间分布。着力分析两个问题：①居民点类型、面积、位置的精确获取;②居民点类型、面积与人口数量间的关系。研究中,首先根据地理意义和数学意义,对经典的城市人口-面积异速生长模型进行扩展,推导出城乡人口-面积统一模型。进而以扶余县为例,以15万地形图为辅助数据,建立居民点分类体系,利用ETM影像提取居民点信息,在以上模型的基础上建立人口分布的反演模型,得到基于居民点的人口分布矢量数据。     

上海市民用建筑能耗的估算与分析

建筑能耗是重要的社会能源消耗主体。采用宏观能源统计方法,利用综合能源平衡表估算上海市1999-2009年住宅能耗和公共建筑运行能耗的变化及其特征。结果表明,上海市民用建筑总能耗由1999年的687.82万tce增加到2009年的1 774.91万tce,平均年增长率为4.68%;住宅建筑能耗呈上升趋势,而单位面积能耗逐年下降,单位面积住宅建筑能耗均值比公共建筑低35.30 kgce/(m2.a);公共建筑单位建筑面积能耗变化呈略增态势,2009年单位建筑能耗比1999年高9.64 kgce/(m2.a)。研究结果可为建筑节能减排政策的制定提供决策参考和数据支持。     

我国大学生旅游者环境意识与行为特征研究

作为潜在的生态旅游者群体,大学生对环境问题的认识、态度及其行为倾向对于旅游地生态环境的可持续发展至关重要。文章以南京林业大学为研究对象,通过问卷调查,以配额抽样法探讨大学生旅游者学科专业、性别因素对环境意识的影响,了解环境心理与行为特征,并与国内生态旅游景区旅游者进行对比,研究发现当代大学生旅游者表现出较好的环境态度和倾向,行为意愿上显示出"绿色"的特征,同时专业课程学习以及实践经历能够增强环境认知和情感,对旅游环境与生态知识的渴求和认知程度对整体环境意识水平有较大影响,然而大学生旅游者的环境意识多来源于理论,存在着知行脱节,环境行为滞后于环境情感、意志。应将旅游环境教育与各学科教学结合起来,开展培养环境责任和环保能力的旅游实践活动,加强大学校园环境及文化建设,积极培育大学生旅游环境意识及管理旅游环境行为。     

Optimal Foraging, Institutions and Forest Change: A Case from Nepal

The forest composition we witness today is a productof temporal anthropogenic and nonanthropogenicdisturbances. Scholars from geography, anthropology,and other disciplines have long been aware of theinforming nature of spatial relationships: humanactions in a previous time often leave imprints intoday's landscape. Traditional empirical studies offorest condition typically ignore this type ofinformation and rely on aggregated forest-levelindicators developed from aspatial plot-levelanalyses. This paper conducts a spatial analysis ofone important forest product species, Shorearobusta, in a foraging setting in southern Nepal. Forest plot locations were located using DifferentialGlobal Positioning Systems (DGPS) and were processedusing a Geographic Information System. Three rivalhypotheses of the geographic distribution of Shorea robusta are presented: (1) a pattern of nohuman disturbance, (2) a pattern of open access andoptimal foraging, and (3) a pattern of optimalforaging altered by the geographic configuration ofenforced institutions. Multivariate regression modelsare estimated and optimal foraging patterns areidentified. Statistical tests lend support to thethird hypothesis. Methods such as the ones presentedhere are important if we are to better understand thegeographic implications of institutional design onhuman behavior and the environmental outcomes that result.     

CONTINENTAL SCALE SIMULATION OF THE HYDROLOGIC BALANCE1

This paper describes the application of a continuous daily water balance model called SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for the conterminous U.S. The local water balance is represented by four control volumes; (1) snow, (2) soil profile, (3) shallow aquifer, and (4) deep aquifer. The components of the water balance are simulated using “storage” models and readily available input parameters. All the required databases (soils, landuse, and topography) were assembled for the conterminous U.S. at 1:250,000 scale. A GIS interface was utilized to automate the assembly of the model input files from map layers and relational databases. The hydrologic balance for each soil association polygon (78,863 nationwide) was simulated without calibration for 20 years using dominant soil and land use properties. The model was validated by comparing simulated average annual runoff with long term average annual runoff from USGS stream gage records. Results indicate over 45 percent of the modeled U.S. are within 50 mm of measured, and 18 percent are within 10 mm without calibration. The model tended to under predict runoff in mountain areas due to lack of climate stations at high elevations. Given the limitations of the study, (i.e., spatial resolution of the data bases and model simplicity), the results show that the large scale hydrologic balance can be realistically simulated using a continuous water balance model.     

Weighted Regressions on Time,Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), with an Application to Chesapeake Bay River Inputs1

Hirsch, Robert M., Douglas L. Moyer, and Stacey A. Archfield, 2010. Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), With an Application to Chesapeake Bay River Inputs. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):857-880. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00482.x Abstract: A new approach to the analysis of long-term surface water-quality data is proposed and implemented. The goal of this approach is to increase the amount of information that is extracted from the types of rich water-quality datasets that now exist. The method is formulated to allow for maximum flexibility in representations of the long-term trend, seasonal components, and discharge-related components of the behavior of the water-quality variable of interest. It is designed to provide internally consistent estimates of the actual history of concentrations and fluxes as well as histories that eliminate the influence of year-to-year variations in streamflow. The method employs the use of weighted regressions of concentrations on time, discharge, and season. Finally, the method is designed to be useful as a diagnostic tool regarding the kinds of changes that are taking place in the watershed related to point sources, groundwater sources, and surface-water nonpoint sources. The method is applied to datasets for the nine large tributaries of Chesapeake Bay from 1978 to 2008. The results show a wide range of patterns of change in total phosphorus and in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite. These results should prove useful in further examination of the causes of changes, or lack of changes, and may help inform decisions about future actions to reduce nutrient enrichment in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed.     

APPLICABILITY OF THE t-TEST FOR DETECTING TRENDS IN WATER QUALITY VARIABLES1

ABSTRACT: A major concern in managing water resources is whether or not water quality variables have changed over time or space. The two-sample Student's t-test is probably the most commonly used statistical test for this purpose. Given that the underlying assumptions of the test may often be violated by water quality variables, a major concern regarding applicability of the test arises. This paper reviews and synthesizes available information in order to examine the effects of non-normality, unequal variances, serial dependence, and seasonality on the performance of the two-sample t-test. The results suggest the t-test is robust for non-normal distributions if the distributions have the same shape (either symmetric or skewed) and sample sizes are equal. The t-test is also robust for unequal variances if the sample sizes are equal. The t-test appears not to be robust when: 1) samples come from two distributions of different shape, 2) samples have unequal variances and unequal sample sizes, 3) serial dependence in observations is present, or 4) seasonal changes, in concentration are present and not removed.     

流域景观格局对土壤保持服务的影响

以子流域为空间单元,应用生态系统服务和交易的综合评估模型（InVEST）进行土壤保持服务评估,并借助景观指数计算软件（FRAGSTATS）表征景观格局特征,综合运用空间自相关探讨土壤保持量与景观格局指数的空间关联关系,同时从景观格局角度出发,开展土壤保持量与景观格局指数的空间回归分析.结果表明：2014年土壤保持服务较高的子流域具有景观类型组成相对单一、景观各类型间非均匀分布、存在优势斑块、景观分离度低的格局特征; 2014年甘肃白龙江14个子流域表现出土壤保持服务与景观格局显著的空间相关关系,占子流域总数量的37.84%;模型对比方面,空间滞后模型（SLM）优于非空间线性模型（OLS）,表明甘肃白龙江各子流域的土壤保持量在空间上具有实质性的空间依赖.景观类型多样性及其均匀程度是影响甘肃白龙江子流域土壤保持量的重要景观指标.     

黄河源植被时空变化及其对地形和气候的响应

基于2000~2019年MODIS归一化植被指数（NDVI）遥感数据,辅以同期气温、降水和地形数据,通过最大值合成、趋势分析及相关分析法,分析了黄河源区植被的时空变化特征及其对地形和气候变化的响应.结果表明：黄河源区植被NDVI整体处于中高水平,但空间差异显著,呈现由东南向西北递减的空间分布格局;近20a来,植被总体上呈现出变好的趋势.植被对高程和坡度响应明显,随着高程的增加,植被NDVI呈现先增加后减少的趋势,但在3500~4100m区间植被NDVI变化不显著;此外,植被NDVI随着坡度的增大呈现出先增大后减小的变化趋势,且在24~26°坡度带植被NDVI达到最大值.黄河源区植被受气温和降水的共同影响,与降水相比,气温对黄河源区植被变化的影响更为显著.     

Electric Accidents in the Production,Transmission, and Distribution of Electric Energy: A Review of the Literature

Many work related electric accidents occurred in electric energy industries and they were very often fatal. The situation of electric accidents in electric companies worldwide is investigated by reviewing the scientific literature, to offer perspectives on the types and kinds of statistics available, the factors regarded as influencing their occurrence, their consequences, and also methodological shortcomings.

Worldwide, reliable comparable data exist and indicate a downward trend in fatal electric accidents. Difficulties were encountered in compiling international statistics because of differences in how accident data were defined and recorded, variations in mandatory practices, lack of suitable data and indices, accident insurance systems, and lack of correlation between technical, financial, and medical aspects.