市场调研中原始信息的收集和分析

在市场调研过程中对原始信息的统计和运用往往关系到整个市场调研的准确性和真实性,各类营销管理职能的选择依据都来源于准确、科学的前期调研,因此,对市场调研工作中市场一手数据和原始信息的统计和运用进行分析与整理、概述原始信息收集工作的要求和方法,是任何一个营销工作者所必须重视和学习的一项基本功.参4.     

Use of stochastic patch occupancy models in the California red-legged frog for Bayesian inference regarding past events and future persistence

Assessing causes of population decline is critically important to management of threatened species. Stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) are popular tools for examining spatial and temporal dynamics of populations when presence–absence data in multiple habitat patches are available. We developed a Bayesian Markov chain method that extends existing SPOMs by focusing on past environmental changes that may have altered occupancy patterns prior to the beginning of data collection. Using occupancy data from 3 creeks, we applied the method to assess 2 hypothesized causes of population decline—in situ die-off and residual impact of past source population loss—in the California red-legged frog. Despite having no data for the 20–30 years between the hypothetical event leading to population decline and the first data collected, we were able to discriminate among hypotheses, finding evidence that in situ die-off increased in 2 of the creeks. Although the creeks had comparable numbers of occupied segments, owing to different extinction–colonization dynamics, our model predicted an 8-fold difference in persistence probabilities of their populations to 2030. Adding a source population led to a greater predicted persistence probability than did decreasing the in situ die-off, emphasizing that reversing the deleterious impacts of a disturbance may not be the most efficient management strategy. We expect our method will be useful for studying dynamics and evaluating management strategies of many species.     

2001年6-9月国内环境事件数据

简要统计了2001年6-9月国内发生的各种环境事件,包括沙尘天气、污染事件、山体滑坡和泥石流、虫害、自然灾害以及其他环境事件。     

2种统计方法在一次实验室间比对中的应用比较

比较了稳健统计法和误差系数法在水中苯系物实验室间比对结果中的应用,分别采用两种方法对比对结果进行了分析,探讨了两种统计方法的差异和适用范围。结果显示,两种方法对此次比对结果的分析结论基本一致,在实际应用中应跟据实验室间比对的目的和样品特点选择合适的统计方法。     

Origin of polluted air masses in the Alps. An overview and first results for MONARPOP

The contribution of ZAMG to MONAROP consists of special weather forecasts to control the SOCs sampling procedure and of the analysis of the specific transport processes for SOCs, which is still in progress.In this paper, air pollutant transport into the Alps is demonstrated by examples of inorganic pollutants: Measurements of NO_x and ozone provide evidence for air pollutant transport by local wind systems (valley and slope winds), especially at low elevated sites of the Alps. In addition, trajectory analyses for the high elevation sites demonstrate the importance of large scale synoptic air pollutant transport. The effects of these transport processes with different spatial and temporal scales are governed by the physical and chemical properties of the particular pollutant.First results for the high alpine MONARPOP stations show that air masses from east Europe influence mostly Sonnblick (Austria), whereas the influence of the Po basin is strongest at Weissfluhjoch (Switzerland).     

The Impacts of Water Conservation Strategies on Water Use: Four Case Studies1

Tsai, Yushiou, Sara Cohen, and Richard M. Vogel, 2011. The Impacts of Water Conservation Strategies on Water Use: Four Case Studies. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):687‐701. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00534.x Abstract: We assessed impacts on water use achieved by implementation of controlled experiments relating to four water conservation strategies in four towns within the Ipswich watershed in Massachusetts. The strategies included (1) installation of weather‐sensitive irrigation controller switches (WSICS) in residences and municipal athletic fields; (2) installation of rainwater harvesting systems in residences; (3) two outreach programs: (a) free home indoor water use audits and water fixture retrofit kits and (b) rebates for low‐water‐demand toilets and washing machines; and (4) soil amendments to improve soil moisture retention at a municipal athletic field. The goals of this study are to summarize the effectiveness of the four water conservation strategies and to introduce nonparametric statistical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of these conservation strategies in reducing water use. It was found that (1) the municipal WSICS significantly reduced water use; (2) residences with high irrigation demand were more likely than low water users to experience a substantial demand decrease when equipped with the WSICS; (3) rainwater harvesting provided substantial rainwater use, but these volumes were small relative to total domestic water use and relative to the natural fluctuations in domestic water use; (4) both the audits/retrofit and rebate programs resulted in significant water savings; and (5) a modeling approach showed potential water savings from soil amendments in ball fields.     

The Regionalization of National‐Scale SPARROW Models for Stream Nutrients1

Schwarz, Gregory E., Richard B. Alexander, Richard A. Smith, and Stephen D. Preston, 2011. The Regionalization of National‐Scale SPARROW Models for Stream Nutrients. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1151‐1172. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00581.x Abstract: This analysis modifies the parsimonious specification of recently published total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) national‐scale SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes models to allow each model coefficient to vary geographically among three major river basins of the conterminous United States. Regionalization of the national models reduces the standard errors in the prediction of TN and TP loads, expressed as a percentage of the predicted load, by about 6 and 7%. We develop and apply a method for combining national‐scale and regional‐scale information to estimate a hybrid model that imposes cross‐region constraints that limit regional variation in model coefficients, effectively reducing the number of free model parameters as compared to a collection of independent regional models. The hybrid TN and TP regional models have improved model fit relative to the respective national models, reducing the standard error in the prediction of loads, expressed as a percentage of load, by about 5 and 4%. Only 19% of the TN hybrid model coefficients and just 2% of the TP hybrid model coefficients show evidence of substantial regional specificity (more than ±100% deviation from the national model estimate). The hybrid models have much greater precision in the estimated coefficients than do the unconstrained regional models, demonstrating the efficacy of pooling information across regions to improve regional models.     

Stationarity of Streamflow Records and Their Influence on Bankfull Regional Curves1

Haucke, Jessica and Katherine A. Clancy, 2011. Stationarity of Streamflow Records and Their Influence on Bankfull Regional Curves. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1338–1347. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00590.x Abstract: Bankfull regional curves, which are curves that establish relationships among channel morphology, discharge, drainage area, are used extensively for stream restoration. These curves are developed upon the assumption that streamflows maintain stationarity over the entire record. We examined this assumption in the Driftless Area of southwestern Wisconsin where agricultural soil retention practices have changed, and precipitation has increased since the 1970s. We developed a bankfull regional curve for this area using field surveys of bankfull channel performed during 2008‐2009 and annual series of peak streamflows for 10 rivers with streamflow records ranging from the 1930s to 2009. We found bankfull flows to correlate to a 1.1 return period. To evaluate gage data statistics, we used the sign test to compare our channel morphology to historic 1.5 return period discharge (Q_1.5) for five time periods: 1959‐1972, 1973‐1992, 1993‐2008, 1999‐2008, and the 1959‐2008 period of record. Analysis of the historic gage data indicated that there has been a more than 30% decline in Q_1.5 since 1959. Our research suggests that land conservation practices may have a larger impact on gaging station stationarity than annual precipitation changes do. Additionally, historic peak flow data from gages, which have records that span land conservation changes, may need to be truncated to represent current flow regimes.     

Urban disaster recovery: a measurement framework and its application to the 1995 Kobe earthquake

This paper provides a framework for assessing empirical patterns of urban disaster recovery through the use of statistical indicators. Such a framework is needed to develop systematic knowledge on how cities recover from disasters. The proposed framework addresses such issues as defining recovery, filtering out exogenous influences unrelated to the disaster, and making comparisons across disparate areas or events. It is applied to document how Kobe City, Japan, recovered from the catastrophic 1995 earthquake. Findings indicate that while aggregate population regained pre‐disaster levels in ten years, population had shifted away from the older urban core. Economic recovery was characterised by a three to four year temporary boost in reconstruction activities, followed by settlement at a level some ten per cent below pre‐disaster levels. Other long‐term effects included substantial losses of port activity and sectoral shifts toward services and large businesses. These patterns of change and disparity generally accelerated pre‐disaster trends.     

国家重点监控水污染企业筛选方法辨析

简述了国家重点监控水污染企业筛选的方法。建议通过增加筛选因子,拓宽统计范围,采用分类筛选的方式改进国家重点监控企业筛选方法,并由环境监察、税务和工商等部门联合确定国家重点监控企业名单。