对改进我国生产安全事故统计工作的思考

做好生产安全事故统计工作,是国家制定相应的安全生产法规、政策和科学发展规划的重要依据,也是指导和加强安全生产管理、监督和监察工作的基础。本文简要回顾了我国生产安全事故统计工作发展情况;指出了当前事故统计工作中存在的问题;针对这些问题,作者就改进我国生产安全事故统计工作、进一步完善生产安全事故统计指标体系以及如何向国际劳工组织提供我国职业伤害统计数据等提出了自己的建议。     

物流量统计量纲研究

物流量量纲的统一标准化是物流量研究的基础,影响到物流规划实施的准确性.针对目前物流量统计量纲没有统一标准的问题,提出了物流标准当量这一物流量单位,统一了物流量统计口径,丰富了物流研究的相关于物流量的统计理论,使不同物流实现可加性,并可与市场容量挂钩,为更科学分析、研究和规划物流业打下基础.     

A Multi‐Agency Nutrient Dataset Used to Estimate Loads,Improve Monitoring Design,and Calibrate Regional Nutrient SPARROW Models1

Saad, David A., Gregory E. Schwarz, Dale M. Robertson, and Nathaniel L. Booth, 2011. A Multi‐Agency Nutrient Dataset Used to Estimate Loads, Improve Monitoring Design, and Calibrate Regional Nutrient SPARROW Models. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):933‐949. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688. 2011.00575.x Abstract: Stream‐loading information was compiled from federal, state, and local agencies, and selected universities as part of an effort to develop regional SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models to help describe the distribution, sources, and transport of nutrients in streams throughout much of the United States. After screening, 2,739 sites, sampled by 73 agencies, were identified as having suitable data for calculating long‐term mean annual nutrient loads required for SPARROW model calibration. These sites had a wide range in nutrient concentrations, loads, and yields, and environmental characteristics in their basins. An analysis of the accuracy in load estimates relative to site attributes indicated that accuracy in loads improve with increases in the number of observations, the proportion of uncensored data, and the variability in flow on observation days, whereas accuracy declines with increases in the root mean square error of the water‐quality model, the flow‐bias ratio, the number of days between samples, the variability in daily streamflow for the prediction period, and if the load estimate has been detrended. Based on compiled data, all areas of the country had recent declines in the number of sites with sufficient water‐quality data to compute accurate annual loads and support regional modeling analyses. These declines were caused by decreases in the number of sites being sampled and data not being entered in readily accessible databases.     

Examining Flood Frequency Distributions in the Midwest U.S.1

Villarini, Gabriele, James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, and Witold F. Krajewski, 2011. Examining Flood Frequency Distributions in the Midwest U.S. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):447‐463. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00540.x Abstract: Annual maximum peak discharge time series from 196 stream gage stations with a record of at least 75 years from the Midwest United States is examined to study flood peak distributions from a regional point of view. The focus of this study is to evaluate: (1) “mixtures” of flood peak distributions, (2) upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions, and (3) presence of temporal nonstationarities in the flood peak records. Warm season convective systems are responsible for some of the largest floods in the area, in particular in Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa. Spring events associated with snowmelt and rain‐on‐snow are common in the northern part of the study domain. Nonparametric tests are used to investigate the presence of abrupt and slowly varying changes. Change‐points rather than monotonic trends are responsible for most violations of the stationarity assumption. The abrupt changes in flood peaks can be associated with anthropogenic changes, such as changes in land use/land cover, agricultural practice, and construction of dams. The trend analyses do not suggest an increase in the flood peak distribution due to anthropogenic climate change. Examination of the upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions are examined by means of the location, scale, and shape parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution.     

雨凇环境影响因子研究与应用——以湖南省为例

运用概率论和数理统计方法,基于湖南气象观测资料、NCEP资料及地理信息资料,分析了气象因子、地理因子对雨凇天气形成的影响,揭示了各影响因子的临界影响点。进而分析了主要影响因子位于不同影响点时其它因子对雨淞天气形成的作用,在此基础上,研制了基于气象要素因子、地理因子的雨凇日数学模型。选取平均连续雨凇日数、年平均雨凇日数、雨凇最长持续时间等3项与雨凇日数有关的气候指标对模型模拟结果进行了检验,结果表明模型模拟结果与实际观测结果相关性高,均值差异小。雨凇日模型已被用于精细化的雨凇气候区划。     

基于稳健统计的土壤环境背景值研究及应用

使用稳健统计方法中的位置估计量和尺度估计量对我国某受到人为干扰的地下水水源地C层土壤重金属的背景值进行了研究.结果表明,稳健统计方法对样本中的异常值有较高的耐抗性,计算结果与常规方法相近,因而适用于某些人为干扰地区的土壤环境背景值研究.对该水源地背景值的计算表明,该地区C层土壤Cu,Pb,Cd,Cr,As和Hg的背景值中心分别为21.2,32.5,0.103,60.3,11.0和0.012 mg/kg,其中w(Pb),w(Cd)和w(As)高于山东省平均值. 6种重金属的阈值分别为29.0,43.7,0.143,93.5,21.0和0.080 mg/kg,均小于全国平均上限值,但其中Pb,Cr,As的阈值高于土壤环境质量一级标准. 基于该地区背景值的污染累积指数评价表明,该地区主要重金属污染物为Pb和Hg,主要污染区为污水沟渠周边,污染深度为1～3 m.      

AN EMPIRICALLY‐BASED SEQUENTIAL GROUND WATER MONITORING NETWORK DESIGN PROCEDURE1

ABSTRACT: A procedure using a simple, empirically‐based model that makes efficient use of available information has been developed for designing a ground water monitoring well network. A moving plume is described by siting wells in a sequential manner, relying upon two‐dimensional concentration data obtained from previously installed wells to determine the locations of future wells. Data sets from two well known, densely monitored natural gradient tracer studies were used to test the procedure. Plumes defined by all information in the original networks were compared to those defined by reduced networks designed by the new procedure. The new procedure tracked the plumes using only a portion of that information. The new procedure could have reduced the number of wells in the original tests by about 50 percent without appreciable loss of plume information as measured by plume location and extent and by tracer mass.     

RESOLUTION OF ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT ISSUES IN PERMITTING TILE PLATEAU CREEK PIPELINE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes how a hydrologic model proved to be a valuable tool to help interested parties understand impacts to four threatened and endangered fish species in the Upper Colorado River. In 1994, the Ute Water Conservancy District initiated permitting and design of the Plateau Creek pipeline replacement. The project was considered a major Federal action and therefore subject to the National Environmental Policy Act. Under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) entered the process to develop a Biological Opinion (BO) and determined that the project could potentially impact the endangered fish in the 15‐mile reach of the Colorado River. The Section 7 consultation was directed by a Core Committee comprised of stakeholders in the Upper Colorado River watershed. Hydrologic modeling became the evaluation tool for comparing flow reductions to USFWS target recovery flows and defining make‐up flow requirements to meet those targets. The Colorado River Recovery Implementation Program was designated to provide the make‐up flows. The USFWS released a final BO in December 1997, approving diversions through 2015. An Environmental Impact Statement for the project was completed and the Record of Decision was issued by the Bureau of Land Management in early 1998.     

Occupational Safety and Health in Finland

In Finland, occupational safety is the responsibility of the employer, while the occupational safety and health laws are enforced by the Labour Inspection Service, an organization of the state. The Labour Inspection is divided in 11 administrative districts, and it employs 360 professionals. They are mandated to carry out site visits without prearranged appointments to inspect safe work situations, working hours, construction safety, or any aspect of accident risks. The inspectors are also mandated to verify the existence of sufficient occupational health services as prescribed by the Occupational Health Services Act for all employees. The occupational health services are typically provided by enterprise-owned medical departments, by mutually owned health care centers, by private practitioners, or by municipal health care centers. The latter are required by law to provide all services as prescribed by the legislation to anyone who comes to the facility. This situation is prevalent in the countryside, where there are very few private caregiving centers. Declaring occupational accidents and disease cases is mandatory, and the Inspection districts examine all accidents to establish causes and consequences, and to initiate prosecution in case of criminal negligence. Labour Inspection Districts are also notified of the new occupational disease cases as they are declared to insurance companies. Insurance for occupational disease, accidents, and death is an obligation of the employer, although they can choose the insurance company. The medical confidentiality between the workers and their occupational health care providers is very strict. Official statistics are maintained by the state Statistics Finland organization, and they may be used, for example, for research purposes by scientific institutes like the Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. Construction industry accounts for 25% of all fatal accidents (120 cases per 1 million working hours), followed by mechanical, wood, metal, machinery, and pulp and paper industry (10% each of fatal accidents) with rates ranging from 100–160 cases per 1 million working hours. There are some 5,000 occupational disease cases per year (rate 22/10,000 employed). The major disease categories include repetitive strain injuries (1,300 cases), respiratory allergies (600 cases), occupational skin diseases (1,000 cases), and 900 cases of noise-caused hearing loss. In 1998, 589 cases of asbestos-related diseases were reported.     

Spatial sampling and the environment: some issues and directions

In this paper we summarize research issues for spatial environmental sampling stemming from a NISS/USEPA workshop held on 21-22 September 1994 at Chapel Hill, NC.