基于遥感与GIS的土地利用动态变化研究

土地是人类社会经济活动的载体；土地利用是指人类对作为生产生活资料的土地的利用方式和强度；而土地利用动态变化则反映了土地利用方式的发展变化趋势。土地利用动态变化在数量，方式，强度，结构和趋势等方面存在很大的差异。全面，客观地反映土地利用动态变化有利于正确认识当前土地利用中合理和不合理的利用方式，为制定长期，可持续发展的土地管理和土地规划提供依据。遥感技术提供巨大而丰富的信息源，GIS技术具有强大的数据处理，空间分析等功能，二者的结合有着传统方式无法比拟的优越性，具有周期短，效率高，费用低等特点，在土地利用变化监测中发挥着巨大的作用。制定详细的技术手段，对重庆市15年间的土地利用及其动态变化在时间序列和空间序列上加以分析，阐明这种变化的外在表象，即耕地，林地的减少和城镇用地的增加；同时分析这种变化的内在驱动力主要为自然环境（坡度，高程，土壤等）和人文要素（经济条件与人口压力等）。为国土资源的有效可持续利用提供决策依据。     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CHANGED CLIMATES ON HEAVY RAINFALL FREQUENCIES IN TIlE MIDWEST1

ABSTRACT: An important question posed by potential future shifts in climate relates to possible shifts in heavy rainfall events (intensity and/or frequency) used to design hydraulic structures. Heavy rain events were defined as those producing amounts having average recurrence intervals of two years or longer for a specific storm period at a given location. Estimates of such heavy rainfall shifts in the humid continental climate of the midwest were derived by using spatial and temporal analogs. Comparisons in areas of relatively warm, wet conditions were made with those having measurably cooler, drier average conditions. The spatial-temporal analogs provided comparative differences in precipitation and temperature similar to the magnitude of changes obtained from GCM estimates. Spatial analogs/analyses indicated 10 to 15 percent increases in the frequency distribution of rain events having recurrence intervals of 5 to 50 years. Two periods of notably drier and warmer conditions during the past 90 years revealed 5 to 15 percent decreases in the number of 2- to 10-year heavy rain events. The suppression percentages showed a strong tendency to increase with increasing recurrence interval from 2 to 10 years.     

Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship

Problem: Safety climate refers to the degree to which employees believe true priority is given to organizational safety performance, and its measurement is thought to provide an “early warning” of potential safety system failure(s). However, researchers have struggled over the last 25 years to find empirical evidence to demonstrate actual links between safety climate and safety performance.Method: A safety climate measure was distributed to manufacturing employees at the beginning of a behavioral safety initiative and redistributed one year later.Results: Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that perceptions of the importance of safety training were predictive of actual levels of safety behavior. The results also demonstrate that the magnitude of change in perceptual safety climate scores will not necessarily match actual changes (r=0.56, n.s.) in employee's safety behavior.Discussion: This study obtained empirical links between safety climate scores and actual safety behavior. Confirming and contradicting findings within the extant safety climate literature, the results strongly suggest that the hypothesized climate-behavior-accident path is not as clear cut as commonly assumed.Summary: A statistical link between safety climate perceptions and safety behavior will be obtained when sufficient behavioral data is collected.Impact on Industry: The study further supports the use of safety climate measures as useful diagnostic tools in ascertaining employee's perceptions of the way that safety is being operationalized.     

Effect of Grazing and Climatic Changes on Alpine Vegetation of Tungnath,Garhwal Himalaya,India

Effect of grazing and changing climate on vegetation composition of alpine pasture at Tungnath, Garhwal Himalaya was observed. Growth form pattern and phytosociological attributes were analyzed during 1988 under grazed (exposed to extensive grazing) and ungrazed (protected from grazing) conditions. These observations were repeated during 1998. It was observed that number of early growing species and long vegetative growth cycle species had increased at both sites in 1998 in comparison to 1988. Further, some species, viz., Poa alpina, Polygonum spp., Ranunculus hirtellus, Anemone spp., are predominantly found near the timberline-subalpine region. These species are less palatable and were present at both sites with higher dominance (TBC) and niche width in 1998 indicating wide distribution of the species along an altitudinal gradient. These observations indicated the migration of these species towards upper slopes of alpine. Species diversity was also higher after ten years. However, it is clear that climatic changes alone are not responsible for these vegetational shifts. In fact, human-induced changes are the main reason for habitat destruction and changes in vegetation composition of the alpine region of Garhwal Himalaya. Before final conclusions can be made, long-term studies on vegetation composition and changes are needed, especially in Himalayan region.     

Environmental implications of changes in the levels of lakes in the Ethiopian Rift since 1970

The Ethiopian rift is characterized by a chain of lakes of various sizes and hydrological and hydrogeological settings. The rift lakes and feeder rivers are used for irrigation, soda extraction, commercial fish farming, and recreation, and they support a wide variety of endemic birds and wild animals. The levels of some of these lakes have changed dramatically over the last three decades. Lakes that are relatively uninfluenced by human activities (Langano and Abaya) remain stable except for the usual inter-annual variations, strongly influenced by rainfall. Some lakes have shrunk due to excessive abstraction of water; others have expanded due to increases in surface runoff and groundwater flux from percolated irrigation water. Lakes Abiyata and Beseka, both heavily impacted by human activities, show contrasting lake level trends: the level of Abiayata has dropped by about 5 m over three decades because of the extraction of water for soda and an upstream diversion for irrigation. Beseka has expanded from an area of 2.5 to 40 km² over the last three decades because of increased groundwater inputs from percolated irrigation water. Lake Awassa has risen slightly due to land use changes resulting in increased runoff in its catchment. This paper addresses these lake level changes and their environmental repercussions, based on evidence from hydrometeorological records, hydrogeological field mapping supported by aerial photography and satellite imagery interpretations, water balance estimation, and hydrological modeling. A converging evidence approach is used to reconstruct the temporal and spatial variations of lake levels. The results reveal that the major changes in the rift valley are mainly related to anthropogenic factors. These changes appear to have grave environmental consequences for the fragile rift ecosystem. These consequences demand the very urgent implementation of integrated basin wide water management practice.     

Sustainable Development in Small Island Developing States

This paper explores the status of sustainable development in small island developing states (SIDS), through the presentation of a case study on the Maldives, which is a typical small island developing state in the Central Indian Ocean. At the outset, a brief history of sustainable development as related to SIDS on the international agenda is outlined, starting from Rio to Barbados to Johannesburg. SIDS are expected to face many challenges and constraints in pursuing sustainable development due to their ecological fragility and economic vulnerability. It is the position of this paper that issues related to environmental vulnerability are of the greatest concern. A healthy environment is the basis of all life-support systems, including that of human well-being and socio-economic development. Priority environmental problems are: climate change and sea-level rise, threats to biodiversity, threats to freshwater resources, degradation of coastal environments, pollution, energy and tourism. Among these, climate change and its associated impacts are expected to pose the greatest threat to the environment and therefore to sustainable development. For small islands dependent on fragile marine ecosystems, in particular on coral reefs, for their livelihoods and living space, adverse effects of climate change such as increased frequency of extreme weather events and sea-level rise will exacerbate the challenges they already face. It is concluded that the paper path from Rio to Barbados to Johannesburg has made significant progress. However, much remains to be done at the practical level, particularly by the developed countries in terms of new and additional efforts at financial and technical assistance, to make sustainable development a reality for SIDS.     

Environmental Impacts of the Akosombo Dam and Effects of Climate Change on the Lake Levels

The Akosombo dam was constructed on the Volta river primarily for the generation of hydropower. The resultant Volta lake which was formed between 1962 and 1966 in Ghana will probably long be one of the greatest man-made lakes. It produces 912MW of electricity at its maximum operating capacity. The Akosombo hydroelectric project (HEP) was meant among others to open up Ghana to rapid industrialization and hence modern development. Other positive impacts of the HEP include fishing, farming, transportation and tourism. However, there are equally negative impacts, some of which the project did not envisage and these are felt on the physical, biological and human subsystems within the immediate project environments and places much more distant from them. Recently, there have been declines in the lake levels resulting most probably from inadequate rainfall and/or runoff from the river catchments that feed the lake, and also from the observed rising temperatures. Comparisons of the runoff from two most important tributaries of the Volta (White Volta and Oti) for two time periods of 1951–1970 and 1971–1990 showed reductions in mean streamflows of 23.1% on the White Volta and 32.5% on the Oti. Similarly, a plot of the mean annual temperatures for the upper Volta basin indicated a 1^C rise in temperature from 1945–1993.     

秦皇岛市50年气候变化与可持续发展战略研究

秦皇岛市50年来气候变暖变干，年平均气温提高2．3℃，≥10℃年积温增加11．4％，无霜期延长22天，但年平均降水量却减少12．6％。这对农业和工业的影响弊大于利，对旅游业的影响则有利有弊。为此应趋利避害，加强水资源的开源节流，发展节水经济和循环经济，发展休闲度假旅游，延长旺季。     

山东潍坊紫外线辐射特征及影响因素

近10多年来,随着人类居住环境的恶化,紫外线给人类造成了巨大的伤害。利用潍坊市气象台2004~2006年逐日紫外线观测资料,分析了太阳紫外线辐射到达地面的强度指数和等级,同时分析了这些量的年、月、日变化特征,研究了影响紫外线辐射的主要的几种因子。影响紫外线辐射强度的主要因素是臭氧、地表反射率、大气气溶胶和云,这些影响因素的变化对太阳紫外线到达地面的辐射起着举足轻重的作用。     

古代黄河中游的环境变化和灾害——对都城迁移发展的影响

都城的选址、建设和迁移发展必须以环境资源为基础。我国古代的国家都城在黄河中游反复迁移，以至最后东迁南迁。在这个过程中，环境变迁和灾害一直是重要的驱动因素之一。通过统计分析历史时期洪涝和干旱灾害，以及气候水文变化资料，结合古都所在地的环境资源条件分析讨论，揭示了黄河中游环境变化和灾害对都城迁移发展的影响。都城在长安与洛阳之间的反复迁移，以及后来的东移开封，和南移到长江下游平原，环境的变迁是重要的驱动力之一。