气候变化背景下四川省单季稻水分盈亏的变化特征

研究利用四川稻区109 个气象台站1961-2010 年的地面气象资料和16 个农业气象站 1981-2010 年的单季稻生育期资料,计算了研究区水稻不同生育期的有效降水量和需水量,并探讨了水稻不同生育阶段内的缺水量和缺水率。结果表明,1961-2010 年四川水稻年均缺水率在孕穗到开花期最高,移栽到孕穗期次之,开花到成熟期最低。近50 a 来,水稻全生育期年有效降水量、需水量和缺水量总体表现为减少趋势,而缺水率在稻区中、西部总体呈升高趋势; 有效降水量在移栽到孕穗期和开花到成熟期以减小为主,而在孕穗到开花期总体呈升高趋势; 需水量在水稻不同生育期内总体均表现为减小趋势;缺水量和缺水率在孕穗到成熟期以减小为主,而在移栽到孕穗期稻区中、西部地区呈升高趋势。研究可为四川稻区的农业用水及合理灌溉提供依据。     

Carbon leakage: Grandfathering as an incentive device to avert firm relocation

Emission allowances are sometimes distributed for free in an early phase of a cap-and-trade scheme to reduce adverse effects on the profitability of firms. This paper investigates whether grandfathering can also be used to avert the relocation of firms to countries with lower carbon prices. We show that under certain conditions, relocation can be averted in the long run, even if the grandfathering scheme is phased out over time and immediate relocation is profitable in its absence. This requires that the permit price triggers sufficient investments into low-carbon technologies or abatement capital that create a lock-in effect which makes relocation unprofitable.     

The optimal time path of clean energy R&D policy when patents have finite lifetime

We study the optimal time path for clean energy innovation policy. In a model with emission reduction through clean energy deployment, and with R&D increasing the overall productivity of clean energy, we describe optimal R&D policies jointly with emission pricing policies. We find that while emission prices can be set at the Pigouvian level independently of innovation policy, the optimal level of R&D subsidies and patent lifetime change with the stages of the climate problem. In the early stages of clean energy development, innovators find it more difficult to capture the social value of their innovations. Thus, for a given finite patent lifetime, optimal clean energy R&D subsidies are initially high, but then fall over time. Alternatively, if research subsidies are kept constant, the optimal patent lifetime should initially be long and fall over time.     

2007—2016年上海市暴雨特征及其与内涝灾情关系分析

利用上海市30个自动气象站2007—2016年逐小时降水数据和上海市应急联动平台110接报内涝灾情数据,分析了近10 a上海市暴雨和内涝灾情特征,并进一步研究致灾暴雨过程与内涝灾情的关系。结果表明：1）上海市暴雨空间分布反映了明显的城市雨岛特征,在水汽充沛的东部沿海和城市化水平较高的中心城区相对容易出现极端雨强;2）暴雨内涝灾情年变化较大,月分布呈单峰型,日分布呈双峰型,且内涝灾情数在中心城区及各区中心较为密集,反映了承灾体的空间分布特征;3）暴雨过程对内涝灾情的贡献作用明显,内涝灾情数与暴雨过程雨量、逐小时最大雨量和最大雨强显著相关,与持续时间和影响站次低度相关;4）逐小时最大雨量等于过程雨量且<60 mm时,内涝灾情数基本在20次以下,随着过程雨量增加,特别是过程雨量>100 mm时,灾情数急剧增加。暴雨特征与内涝灾情关系研究对于暴雨内涝的预报、预警和服务具有重要意义。     

Building resilience by challenging social norms: integrating a transformative approach within the BRACED consortia

Resilience is a complex phenomenon whereby a multitude of social and environmental factors, including gender, combine to shape the ways that shocks affect people. Looking at two BRACED (Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters) projects, in Burkina Faso and in Ethiopia, this article uses a desk review and primary data from partners and people at risk to explore how a gender‐transformative approach can be an integral part of resilience‐building projects, particularly those implemented by multi‐stakeholder consortia. It also suggests ways to incorporate a stronger gender component in similar future projects. The article argues that donors and programme managers must provide clear principles and guidelines for achieving gender equity within resilience‐building efforts. However, these must allow flexibility to adapt to norms, needs and resources as determined by implementing partners. The right balance can be achieved by facilitating spaces for individual and collective goal‐setting; assessing current capacity and trajectories; and lesson‐sharing as an iterative process for institutional learning.     

Will Evolving Climate Conditions Increase the Risk of Floods of the Large U.S.‐Canada Transboundary Richelieu River Basin?

In spring 2011, an unprecedented flood hit the complex eastern United States (U.S.)–Canada transboundary Lake Champlain–Richelieu River (LCRR) Basin, destructing properties and inducing negative impacts on agriculture and fish habitats. The damages, covered by the Governments of Canada and the U.S., were estimated to C$90M. This natural disaster motivated the study of mitigation measures to prevent such disasters from reoccurring. When evaluating flood risks, long‐term evolving climate change should be taken into account to adopt mitigation measures that will remain relevant in the future. To assess the impacts of climate change on flood risks of the LCRR basin, three bias‐corrected multi‐resolution ensembles of climate projections for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were used to force a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution, distributed hydrological model. The analysis of the hydrological simulations indicates that the 20‐year return period flood (corresponding to a medium flood) should decrease between 8% and 35% for the end of the 21st Century (2070–2099) time horizon and for the high‐emission scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The reduction in flood risks is explained by a decrease in snow accumulation and an increase in evapotranspiration expected with the future warming of the region. Nevertheless, due to the large climate inter‐annual variability, short‐term flood probabilities should remain similar to those experienced in the recent past.     

Greening the structural change process: ranking sustainability of countries in climate change

This paper proposes an analytical toolkit to measure the sustainability of industrialization across countries. Drawing from a methodology developed to analyze economic development as a process of modernization, it ranks countries on the basis of the emissions they produce and their stage of development. The proposed index penalizes environmental pressures taking into account the modernization level of a country. The paper also proposes an assessment of the environmental performance of countries at the same level of modernization. It introduces the notion of policy space as the difference between the best and worst environmental performer at a given level of modernization. An important finding of the paper is that the magnitude of the policy space is not homogenous across different levels of income and environmental targets.     

A sustainability index for small island developing states

This paper proposes a novel approach to measuring the progress of small island developing states (SIDS) towards sustainable development (SD) as set by the UN Sustainable Development Goals 2030. Currently, these goals do not provide adequate guidance on how countries might measure their progress towards sustainability. We use these goals and a subset of their targets to develop an index with concrete targets, through the use of pertinent sustainability indicators, that SIDS should aim to achieve a sustainable society. In addition to the three categorical pillars of SD (social, economic and environmental), we included the category Climate Change and Disaster Management (incorporating Disaster Risk Reduction). The basis of our decision is that the UN and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have both recognized the vulnerability of SIDS to both environmental hazards. Our index scores a total 70 individual indicators for the four categories to track the progress of a SIDS towards a sustainable society. Using the Caribbean nation, Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, as our SIDS case study, we report the average of the scores for each category to illustrate its progress towards sustainability. Overall Trinidad and Tobago is slowly progressing towards a more sustainably developed society. Our results show that the nation is only moderately successful regarding progress in three traditional pillars of SD, social, economic and environmental. However, Trinidad and Tobago scores poorly in the Climate Change and Disaster Management category and needs to improve in this area especially due to its vulnerability.     

Trees and rural households’ adaptation to local environmental change in the central highlands of Ethiopia

This study assesses the role of trees in adaptation strategies of rural households to local environmental change in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Change in tree cover was assessed by producing Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps using satellite remote sensing images, and household survey was conducted to generate socioeconomic data. The results show that tree cover has increased over the last 30 years, mostly in the form of eucalyptus woodlots around homesteads. Eucalyptus reportedly helps households pass through livelihood shocks and provide protection against negative effects of climate change and variability. Despite some concerns on the part of local agricultural experts that planting eucalyptus may affect future food production, farmers are converting their croplands into eucalyptus woodlots. We conclude that land use planning and proper allocation of land resource is important to improve local livelihoods while also supporting adaptation of communities to local environmental change in general and climate change in particular.     

干旱区气候条件对道路灰尘及土壤 Pd、Rh累积的影响

以乌鲁木齐市为研究区,选取河滩路、友好南路、温泉西路、乌奎高速公路及七道湾路等5条典型道路,对道路灰尘与土壤中Pd、Rh季节变化特征进行研究.结果表明,春、夏、秋、冬的灰尘中Pd含量分别为74.61(31.59~126.3),134.26(54.59~332.51),100.49(20.935~244.9), 83.43(47.97~125.40)ng/g;灰尘中Rh含量分别为8.41(4.56~14.63),18.48(11.62~31.56),10.27(3.83~19.1),9.20(5.34~16.68)ng/g;土壤中Pd含量分别为44.42(13.59~109.40),30.47(13.24~70.87),30.01(21.55~49.19),26.28(14.85~44.83)ng/g;土壤Rh含量分别为8.47(5.93~13.40), 8.11(4.65~ 13.45),3.81(1.67~8.02),3.22(2.56~4.26)ng/g. Pd、Rh含量均表现出明显的季节变化,其中,灰尘中Pd、Rh含量在夏秋季高,冬春季低;土壤中Pd、Rh含量在春夏季高,冬季最低,秋季为中间水平,地域气候条件是PGEs季节变化的主要影响因素.冬、春季节的降雪、扫雪及积雪堆积习惯使乌鲁木齐道路环境中灰尘与土壤的季节变化并没有完全相同. 湿润区与干旱区城市PGEs的季节变化明显不同,两类地区的气候特征不同是造成这种差异存在的根本原因.