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21.
The purpose of this studywas to determine status and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen concentrations (DO) in Corpus Christi Bay, Texas, U.S.A. A 20-year record of randomized stations was used to determine the trend of surface water DO, salinity, and temperature over space and time. A 13-year record of two fixed stations was used to determine the temporal nutrient trends. A 10-year record of fixed stations in the southeastern region of Corpus Christi Bay was used to determine the status of disturbance caused by low DO in bottom waters. From 1982 to 2002, there was a significant decrease in surface water DO at a rate of 0.06 mg L−1 yr−1 and a significant increase in surface water temperature at a rate of 0.07°C yr−1. The southeastern region of Corpus Christi Bay had the lowest average DO, and during July and August, DO are steadily declining at a rate of 0.09 mg L−1 yr−1. It is not likely that eutrophication is causing hypoxia, because freshwater inflow rates have significantly decreased since 1941 and nutrient levels have not changed from 1987 to 2000. Even though long-term trends indicate that average surface DO is decreasing, disturbance by hypoxia appears to be stable, but this may be due to just eight years of data. In fact, if the current trend continues, surface water DO will not meet exceptional aquatic life standards (≤5 mgL−1) in 2032. 相似文献
22.
A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability. 相似文献
23.
William F. Laurance 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,61(1):113-122
This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr–1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr–1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr–1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia.The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranho, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin.The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges.Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO2 and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO2. 相似文献
24.
The degradation of several biodegradable polymers was measured as a result of exposure to an anaerobic medium. The polymers investigated included materials based upon polylactic acid, polylactone, and poly(hydroxy butyrate/valerate) as well as those incorporating starch-based materials. The degradation was monitored by methane and carbon dioxide evolution. In addition, the physical and chemical changes were noted as a result of exposure. These measurements included changes in mass, dimension, and molecular weight. FTIR, UV-vis, proton, and13C NMR spectra were also recorded prior to and after exposure. The results clearly indicated that several biological and chemical degradation processes were occurring with the biodegradable polymers studied.Paper presented at the Bio/Environmentally Degradable Polymer Society—Second National Meeting, August 19–21, 1993, Chicago, Illinois.Issued as NRCC No. 37549. 相似文献
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Proost Stef Van Regemorter Denise 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2004,9(4):453-473
In this paper we discuss the effects ofdifferent climate change policies onindustrial activity and on welfare. Wecompare the effects of carbon taxes andgrandfathered permits and the effects ofexemptions for energy-intensive industries.We survey first the insights from economictheory and from model experiments for theUS. Next we use a general equilibrium modelto assess the effect of different climatechange policies on industrial activity persector and per member country in the EU. Wepay particular attention to the effects ofpolicies where one EU member state exemptsits energy-intensive sectors from abatementefforts. The main findings are that, in theEU, the effects on industrial activity andthe welfare costs of tradable permits orcarbon taxes are small when no industrialsectors are exempted. When one membercountry exempts its energy intensivesector, this will reduce somewhat theimpact on its activity level but willgenerate an extra welfare cost for theEU. 相似文献
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Torvanger Asbjørn Rypdal Kristin Kallbekken Steffen 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2005,10(4):693-715
Carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage is increasingly being considered as an important climate change mitigation option. This paper explores
provisions for including geological CO2 storage in climate policy. The storage capacity of Norway's Continental Shelf is alone sufficient to store a large share
of European CO2 emissions for many decades. If CO2 is injected into oil reservoirs there is an additional benefit in terms of enhanced oil recovery. However, there are significant
technical and economic challenges, including the large investment in infrastructure required, with related economies of scale
properties. Thus CO2 capture, transportation and storage projects are likely to be more economically attractive if developed on a large scale,
which could mean involving two or more nations. An additional challenge is the risk of future leakages from storage sites,
where the government must take on a major responsibility. In institutional and policy terms, important challenges are the
unsettled status of geological CO2 storage as a policy measure in the Kyoto Protocol, lack of relevant reporting and verification procedures, and lack of decisions
on how the option should be linked to the flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. In terms of competitiveness with
expected prices for CO2 permits under Kyoto Protocol trading, the relatively high costs per tonne of CO2 stored means that geological CO2 storage is primarily of interest where enhanced oil recovery is possible. These shortcomings and uncertainties mean that
companies and governments today only have weak incentives to venture into geological CO2 storage. 相似文献
29.
就煤矿矸石山自燃机理、爆炸机理进行了分析研究,给出了煤矿矸石山自燃爆炸发生必要条件和外部影响因素. 相似文献
30.