A Global Conservation System for Climate-Change Adaptation

Abstract:  Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway .     

GENERAL-CIRCULATION-MODEL SIMULATIONS OF FUTURE SNOWPACK IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: April 1 snowpack accumulations measured at 311 snow courses in the western United States (U.S.) are grouped using a correlation-based cluster analysis. A conceptual snow accumulation and melt model and monthly temperature and precipitation for each cluster are used to estimate cluster-average April 1 snowpack. The conceptual snow model is subsequently used to estimate future snowpack by using changes in monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HADLEY) general circulation models (GCMs). Results for the CCC model indicate that although winter precipitation is estimated to increase in the future, increases in temperatures will result in large decreases in April 1 snowpack for the entire western U.S. Results for the HADLEY model also indicate large decreases in April 1 snowpack for most of the western US, but the decreases are not as severe as those estimated using the CCC simulations. Although snowpack conditions are estimated to decrease for most areas of the western US, both GCMs estimate a general increase in winter precipitation toward the latter half of the next century. Thus, water quantity may be increased in the western US; however, the timing of runoff will be altered because precipitation will more frequently occur as rain rather than as snow.     

HOW CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN GREAT LAKES MANAGEMENT: MODELING WORKSHOP RESULTS1

ABSTRACT: In two workshops, we evaluated decision analysis methods for comparing Lake Erie levels management alternatives under climate change uncertainty. In particular, we wanted to see how acceptable and effective those methods could be in a public planning setting. The methods evaluated included simulation modeling, scenario analysis, decision trees and structured group discussions. We evaluated the methods by interviewing the workshop participants before and after the workshops. The participants, who were experienced Great Lakes water resources managers, concluded that simulation modeling is user-friendly enough to enable scenario analysis even in workshop settings for large public planning studies. They felt that simulation modeling can improve not only understanding of the system, but also of the options for managing it. Scenario analysis revealed that the decision for the case study, Lake Erie water level regulation, could be altered by the likelihood of climate change. The participants also recommended that structured group discussions be used in public planning settings to elicit ideas and opinions. On the other hand, the participants were less optimistic about decision trees because they felt that the public might view subjective probabilities as difficult to understand and subject to manipulation.     

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATION FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: This paper considers the distribution of flood flows in the Upper Mississippi, Lower Missouri, and Illinois Rivers and their relationship to climatic indices. Global climate patterns including El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation explained very little of the variations in flow peaks. However, large and statistically significant upward trends were found in many gauge records along the Upper Mississippi and Missouri Rivers: at Hermann on the Missouri River above the confluence with the Mississippi (p = 2 percent), at Hannibal on the Mississippi River (p < 0.1 percent), at Meredosia on the Illinois River (p = 0.7 percent), and at St. Louis on the Mississippi below the confluence of all three rivers (p = 1 percent). This challenges the traditional assumption that flood series are independent and identically distributed random variables and suggests that flood risk changes over time.     

细雾水与火焰的相互作用

本文分析了细雾水滴与浮升火焰羽流的相互作用,推导出雾滴在火场下降过程中的运动方程,、汽化速率方程和热量衡算方程。采用龙格－库塔差分方法,数值求解所得到的有关方程。     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the current assessment of climate impacts on water resources, including aquatic ecosystems, agricultural demands, and water management, in the U.S. Great Plains. Climate change in the region may have profound effects on agricultural users, aquatic ecosystems, and urban and industrial users alike. In the central Great Plains Region, the potential impacts of climate changes include changes in winter snowfall and snow-melt, growing season rainfall amounts and intensities, minimum winter temperature, and summer time average temperature. Specifically, results from general circulation models indicate that both annual average temperatures and total annual precipitation will increase over the region. However, the seasonal patterns are not uniform. The combined effect of these changes in weather patterns and average seasonal climate will affect numerous sectors critical to the economic, social and ecological welfare of this region. Research is needed to better address the current competition among the water needs of agriculture, urban and industrial uses, and natural ecosystems, and then to look at potential changes. These diverse demands on water needs in this region compound the difficulty in managing water use and projecting the impact of climate changes among the various critical sectors in this region.     

VARIABILITY CHARACTERISTICS OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA1

ABSTRACT: To fully take advantage of regional climate forecast information for agricultural applications, the relationship between divisional and station scale precipitation characteristics must be quantified. The spatial variability of monthly precipitation is assumed to consist of two components: a systematic and a random component. The systematic component is defined by differences in long-term mean precipitation between stations within a climate division, and the random component by differences between station and divisional standardized values. For the Central Climate Division of Oklahoma, the systematic component has a positive precipitation gradient from west to east with a slope ranging between 3 to 16 mm of precipitation per 100 km depending on the month of the year. On the other hand, the random component ranges between 27 to 48 percent of the mean temporal variation of the monthly precipitation. This significant random spatial variability leads to large localized departures from divisional values, and clearly demonstrates the critical influence of the random component in the utilization of divisional climate forecasts for local agricultural applications. The results of this study also provide an uncertainty range for local monthly precipitation projections that are derived from divisional climate information.     

ESTIMATES OF RUNOFF USING WATER-BALANCE AND ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS1

ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). The two GCMs are from the Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HAD). In general, the CCC GCM climate results in decreases in runoff for the conterminous U.S., and the HAD GCM climate produces increases in runoff. These estimated changes in runoff primarily are the result of estimated changes in precipitation. The changes in mean annual runoff, however, mostly are smaller than the decade-to-decade variability in GCM-based mean annual runoff and errors in GCM-based runoff. The differences in simulated runoff between the two GCMs, together with decade-to-decade variability and errors in GCM-based runoff, cause the estimates of changes in runoff to be uncertain and unreliable.     

Temperature niche composition change inside and outside protected areas under climate warming

Conservation of biodiversity relies heavily on protected areas but their role and effectiveness under a warming climate is still debated. We estimated the climate-driven changes in the temperature niche compositions of bird communities inside and outside protected areas in southern Canada. We hypothesized that communities inside protected areas include a higher proportion of cold-dwelling species than communities outside protected areas. We also hypothesized that communities shift to warm-dwelling species more slowly inside protected areas than outside. To study community changes, we used large-scale and long-term (1997–2019) data from the Breeding Bird Survey of Canada. To describe the temperature niche compositions of bird communities, we calculated the community temperature index (CTI) annually for each community inside and outside protected areas. Generally, warm-dwelling species dominated communities with high CTI values. We modeled temporal changes in CTI as a function of protection status with linear mixed-effect models. We also determined which species contributed most to the temporal changes in CTI with a jackknife approach. As anticipated, CTI was lower inside protected areas than outside. However, contrary to our expectation, CTI increased faster over time inside than outside protected areas and warm-dwelling species contributed most to CTI change inside protected areas. These results highlight the ubiquitous impacts of climate warming. Currently, protected areas can aid cold-dwelling species by providing habitat, but as the climate warms, the communities’ temperature compositions inside protected areas quickly begin to resemble those outside protected areas, suggesting that protected areas delay the impacts of climate warming on cold-dwelling species.     

Opportunities and challenges for Common Agricultural Policy reform to support the European Green Deal

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the European Union's main instrument for agricultural planning, with a new reform approved for 2023–2027. The CAP intends to align with the European Green Deal (EGD), a set of policy initiatives underpinning sustainable development and climate neutrality in the European Union (EU), but several flaws cast doubts about the compatibility of the objectives of these 2 policies. We reviewed recent literature on the potential of CAP environmental objectives for integration with the EGD: protection of biodiversity, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and sustainable management of natural resources. The CAP lacks appropriate planning measures, furthering instead risks to biodiversity and ecosystem services driven by landscape and biotic homogenization. Funding allocation mechanisms are not tailored to mitigate agricultural emissions, decreasing the efficiency of climate mitigation actions. The legislation subsidies farmers making extensive use of synthetic inputs without adequately supporting organic production, hindering the transition toward sustainable practices. We recommend proper control mechanisms be introduced in CAP Strategic Plans from each member state to ensure the EU is set on a sustainable production and consumption path. These include proportional assignment of funds to each CAP objective, quantitative targets to set goals and evidence-based interventions, and relevant indicators to facilitate effective monitoring of environmental performance. Both the CAP and the EGD should maintain ambitious environmental commitments in the face of crisis to avoid further degradation of the natural resources on which production systems stand.