基于CMIP5多模式集合预估东海和南海21世纪海平面高度变化

人类活动引起的当代气候变暖已导致全球海平面显著上升,在21世纪全球气候继续变暖的背景下,东南沿海海平面的升高将对区域环境及社会可持续发展带来巨大挑战,但目前对未来区域海平面变化的预估尚存在较大的不确定性。本文基于筛选的国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）的10个模拟性能较好的气候模式输出结果,通过多模式集合预估了未来温室气体三种排放情景下21世纪东海和南海区域海平面高度的趋势变化,并分析了不同影响因子的贡献。通过计算海水热比容、盐比容和动力因子对海平面高度的影响,并在考虑冰川冰盖消融等因子的订正后,发现：21世纪东海和南海海平面高度都呈现连续上升趋势,东海和南海地区上升幅度略小于全球平均,南海上升幅度略大于东海。在温室气体低（RCP2.6）、中（RCP4.5）和高（RCP8.5）排放情景下,21世纪后期（2081—2100年）较前期（2006—2025年）东海/南海平均海平面分别上升0.26 [0.01—0.55] m/0.29 [0.05—0.55] m、0.38 [0.10—0.66] m/0.40 [0.14—0.67] m和0.52[0.15—0.89] m/0.52[0.23—0.83] m（方括号内为相应的不确定性范围）。随着温室气体排放的升高,海平面上升幅度也增大,东海海平面上升区由东南向西北扩展,南海海平面上升区由东北向西南扩展。统计分析还表明：在不同排放情景下,不同影响因子对海平面变化的贡献也不一样,随着排放强度从低到高变化,海洋比容加动力因子的相对贡献从28%—34%升高至46%—47%,而冰川冰盖消融等其他因子的相对贡献从 66%—72%降低至53%—54%。     

现行标准对飞机实验室气候试验的作用

文中从现行标准分析角度,研究其对我国飞机实验室气候试验的作用。对现行的装备环境相关标准进行分析,讨论其与飞机实验室气候试验的关系,探索现行标准对开展试验工作的作用和局限性。分析了顶层标准GJB 4239在试验中的指导作用,并对GJB 150和GJB 1172等在试验项目中的适用情况进行分析。现行标准不能直接用于飞机实验室气候试验,然而其体现的环境工程的大概念、试验剪裁等内容对试验有很好的指导价值。     

气候变暖背景下西南地区干旱灾害风险评估

论文利用全国基准基本站地面气温、降水资料,NCAR/NCEP土壤湿度资料及各类经济数据,采用加权综合评价法对西南地区干旱灾害风险因子进行分析,结果表明：四川和云南致灾因子危险性较高,气候变暖后四川东南部、云南和贵州西部危险性增加;西南地区中部到东南部成灾环境敏感性较高,气候变暖后四川东部、贵州及云南东部敏感性增加;承灾体易损性主要分布于西南中东部地区,人口密度、经济密度、耕地面积比重越高的地区易损性程度越高;四川中部、云南东北部、贵州南部及重庆西部防灾减灾能力较高。西南地区干旱灾害风险最高区域为云南东部、四川东部、贵州西部及重庆大部分地区;气候变暖后四川东南部、云南西部危险性明显增加。     

三峡库区社区水平乡村路网对森林景观变化的影响

人为扰动是短时空尺度内森林景观变化或用途转换的主要动力,而乡村路网则成为人为扰动拓展的主要通道。基于1992、2002、2014年三峡库区重庆市石柱县西沱镇3期遥感影像和实地调研数据,在ArcGIS平台支持下,研究社区水平乡村路网对森林景观变化的影响。结果表明：1）1992—2014年研究区乡村路网影响域内次生林、退化林地和耕地的动态变化较显著,集中分布在中西部平坦区。1992—2002年乡村路网缓冲区内森林景观整体呈退化趋势,退化类型以次生林→退化林地、次生林→耕地、退化林地→耕地为主,演化量达1 705.91 hm²;2002—2014年乡村路网缓冲区内森林景观主要呈恢复趋势,恢复类型以耕地→退化林地、耕地→次生林、退化林地→次生林和原始林→退化原始林为主,演化量达1 674.52 hm²。2）相比发现,前一时期研究区乡村路网长度的增加和路网材质的提升很大程度上驱动森林景观的退化,而后一时期低等级路段的消失、废弃或利用率的降低则有助于森林景观的恢复,消失路段恢复率近100%。3）研究有助于丰富人们对社区水平乡村路网影响森林景观变化的理解与认识,为生态文明建设中合理规划乡村路网提供科学依据。     

Particulate matter pollution in Kunshan High-Tech zone: Source apportionment with trace elements, plume evolution and its monitoring

Particulate matter(PM) in the Kunshan High-Tech zone is studied during a three-month campaign. PM and trace elements are measured by the online pollution monitoring, forecastwarning and source term retrieval system AS3. Hourly measured concentrations of PM_(10), PM_(2.5) and 16 trace elements in the PM_(2.5) section(Ca, Pb, Cu, Cl, V, Cr, Fe, Ti, Mn, Ni, Zn, Ga, As, Se, Sr, Ba)are focused. Source apportionment of trace elements by Positive Matrix Factorization modeling indicates that there are five major sources, including dust, industrial processing, traffic,combustion, and sea salt with contribution rate of 23.68%, 21.66%, 14.30%, 22.03%, and 6.89%,respectively. Prediction of plume dispersion from concrete plant and traffic emissions shows that PM_(10) pollution of concrete plant is three orders of magnitude more than that of the traffic. The influence range can extend to more than 3 km in 1 hr. Because the footprint of the industrial plumes is constantly moving according to the local meteorological conditions, the fixed monitoring sites scattered in a few hundred meters haven't captured the heaviest pollution plume at the local scale of a few km~2. As a more intensive monitoring network is not operationally possible, the use of online modeling gives accurate and quantitative information of plume location, which increases the spatial pollution monitoring capacity and improves the understanding of measurement data. These results indicate that the development of the AS3 system, which combines monitoring equipment and air pollution modeling systems, is beneficial to the real-time pollution monitoring in the industrial zone.     

气候变化对太岳山中部油松单萜烯排放的影响

以全球气候模式NorESM1-M产生的RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0和RCP8.5气候变化情景数据和植物VOCs排放计算模型,模拟分析了气候变化对山西太岳山中部油松叶片单萜烯排放速率的影响.结果显示,未来气候变化影响下山西太岳山中部气温呈上升趋势,降水和辐射强度波动大.在RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0和RCP8.5情景与基准情景下,油松单萜烯日排放速率在1~210d呈上升趋势,在210~365d呈下降趋势;在未来气候变化情景下比基准情景下高约2μg/（g·d）,在RCP8.5情景下最高;油松单萜烯日排放速率在未来气候变化情景与基准情景下差异在1~95d和296~365d较小,在96~295d波动较大.同时,相比基准情景,单萜烯日排放速率增幅在1~190d较高（增加12%~14%以上）,在191~315d较小（增加9%~13%以上）,在316~365d增加12%~18%以上,在RCP8.5情景下增幅最大（增加14%以上）.另外,油松单萜烯年排放速率在未来气候变化情景下比基准情景下平均高约1000μg/（g·a）以上,在RCP8.5情景下增幅最大（约12%）.说明,未来气候变化将使油松单萜烯排放速率增加.     

Exploring the activation dimension of affect in organizations: A focus on trait‐level activation,climate‐level activation,and work‐related outcomes

This study explores the activation dimension of affect in organizations by focusing on both individual employees and their work climate. Drawing on affect research and demands‐abilities fit perspective, I have developed a model predicting that climate‐level activation would deplete employees' emotional resources and trait‐level action would function as an inner resource helping employees buffer themselves from their work demands. The results of a cross‐level study, conducted in a sample of 257 employees and their supervisors within 40 work units across 11 organizations, supported all but one of the hypotheses. Employees whose trait‐level activation was lower than the activation level of their work climate experienced higher levels of emotional exhaustion and thus were more likely to disengage from their work in forms of increased surface acting with their coworkers and psychological withdrawal, and reduced affective commitment to and intention to remain in their organization. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

煤层底板卸荷扰动断裂机制宏细观研究

基于断裂力学和重整化群理论,采用综合研究方法,从宏细观角度对开采扰动底板损伤岩层动态失稳机理进行了研究。结果表明,煤层回采后,底板岩层存在高应力束组成的主应力拱,最大主应力大小决定裂纹的起裂与扩展,裂纹的生长路径受控于最大主应力的方向。采场高支承压力引起岩层原始裂纹起裂,宏观上表现为底板岩层的预先剪切随机破坏;近场区域最大主应力场部分偏转,引起底板岩层中垂直应力显著降低、浅部水平应力急剧增加和斜向采空区方向产生高剪应力,迫使裂隙在原有扩展长度基础上进一步生长;工作面继续推进,采空区内底板岩层水平方向上压缩和竖向膨胀引起岩层拉破坏,当底板岩层损伤发展到临近损伤值时,极小范围的扰动被强烈放大,底板岩层由随机破坏转为"雪崩"式宏观断裂。     

Transport company safety climate—The impact on truck driver behavior and crash involvement

Objective: The present study investigated the relationships between safety climate and driving behavior and crash involvement.

Methods: A total of 339 company-employed truck drivers completed a questionnaire that measured their perceptions of safety climate, crash record, speed choice, and aberrant driving behaviors (errors, lapses, and violations).

Results: Although there was no direct relationship between the drivers' perceptions of safety climate and crash involvement, safety climate was a significant predictor of engagement in risky driving behaviors, which were in turn predictive of crash involvement.

Conclusions: This research shows that safety climate may offer an important starting point for interventions aimed at reducing risky driving behavior and thus fewer vehicle collisions.     

产业生态学的技术方法研究及应用

介绍了产业生态学的兴起,阐述了作为一门交叉学科,产业生态学广泛吸取了其他学科的理论和方法,例如生态学中的系统演化理论、经济学中的投入产出分析方法等,并在这些理论和方法的基础上,形成了自身的理论和方法体系,其中包括物质和能量流分析、生态效率、生产者责任延伸制、产品导向的环境政策等。提出随着这些理论和方法研究的不断完善和深入,产业生态学将广泛用于企业、区域、国家甚至全球层面上,在更广的领域和范围内发挥积极作用。