Sustainable Development: The Need for a New Paradigm

At present, the term sustainable development is misleading because we actually live in a markedly unsustainable world and conditions will become even more unsustainable in the 21st century. Indeed, the 21st century will be the defining period in man's occupation of this planet. Either we take very positive steps to ameliorate our environmental excesses now or we face the prospect of major environmental catastrophes in the future. It is a fact that advanced civilizations have collapsed twice within the last 5000 years in Europe and we must face up to the fact that a third collapse, this time on a global scale, is not beyond the realms of possibility. It is therefore up to us to begin using our considerable ingenuity to prepare for the future in a more rational manner than is presently the case. This article demonstrates clearly the dilemma that we now face.     

Global Warming, Uncertainty and Endogenous Technical Change

What impact does ecological uncertainty have on agents' decisions concerning domestic emissions abatement, physical investments, and R&;D expenditures? How sensitive are the answers to these questions when we move from exogenous to endogenous technical change? To investigate these issues we modify the ETC-RICE model described in Buonanno et al. (2001) by embedding in it a hazard rate function as in Bosello and Moretto (1999). With this model at hand we run numerical optimisations focusing our attention on the control variables of the representative agents, i.e., domestic abatement rate, investments in physical capital, and R&;D spending, as well as on the endogenous patterns of GDP level and CO₂ emissions. Our results show that uncertainty strongly influences agents behaviour; in particular, agents slow down their emissions in order to maintain a more sustainable growth path. In addition, R&;D expenditures trigger the “engine of growth” exclusively when environmental technical change is formalized in an endogenous fashion. However, even if environmental uncertainty may stimulate technical change, long-run growth it turns out to be negatively affected by the former, as also predicted by Clarke and Reed (1994) Tsur and Zemel (1996) and Bosello and Moretto (1999).     

DETERMINING RAINS OF HYDROLOGIC CONSEQUENCE IN CHICAGO FOR FORECASTING APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Accurate forecasting of heavy rainstorms that affect the Chicago Metropolitan area and lead to the undesirable release of storm runoff into Lake Michigan is a major objective. These releases (overflows) were found to be produced by storm events yielding 2 inches or more in a few hours, although only 24 percent of such ≥ 2-inch storms in the area during 1948-1981 produced overflows. Failure to forecast properly or to be able to react to these 2-inch overflow producing events has occurred most often in the spring and fall, although relatively often in June and July in recent years. These overflows have exhibited an inexplicable trebling during 1972-1981 without an increase in ≥ 2-inch storm events. This type of troublesome storm can be reliably predicted, using a recently developed radar man forecast system for the Chicago area.     

The Holocene Dynamics of Vegetation and Ecological Conditions in the Polar Urals

Palynological, paleocarpological, and paleoentomological analyses of frozen peat deposits near Lake Pereval'noe, the Polar Urals, were performed to reveal the main stages of change in the pattern of vegetation over the period from the beginning of warming after the last Pleistocene glaciation to the late Holocene. Nine to four thousand years ago, the study region (at the present-day upper boundary of open larch forests) was covered with taiga forests, as the climate there was significantly warmer. These were larch–birch forests with an admixture of spruce and, later, spruce forests with larch and birch.     

近30年来中国气候湿润程度变化的空间差异及其对生态系统脆弱性的影响

论文利用近30 a中国756个气象站点日观测数据计算中国陆地表层潜在蒸散和湿润指数现状及变化趋势,然后划分湿润程度变化对不同自然地带生态系统脆弱性影响的等级,并应用于农田、林地和草地三大生态系统脆弱性变化分析,结果显示:近30 a中国陆地表层平均年潜在蒸散为754 mm,平均湿润指数为-5.6,湿润指数平均变化率为-4.4/10 a,反映中国陆地表层湿润程度总体具有下降趋势。近30 a中国陆地表层气候湿润程度变化导致生态系统脆弱性增加的面积约占中国陆地面积的43.7%,主要集中在东北地区西南部、华北地区、西北地区东部,以及青藏高原的西部、北部和东部。总体上,近30 a中国陆地表层气候湿润程度变化对农田、林地和草地生态系统脆弱性具有不利影响。其中草地生态系统脆弱性增加的面积最大,约占草地生态系统总面积的63.2%;其次为农田生态系统,约占31.6%;林地生态系统脆弱性受影响面积最小,约占17.7%。     

联合国环境规划署（UNEP）的角色演进

环境问题是全球性问题,应对环境问题的需要催生了联合国环境规划署。其是联合国系统内最早成立的专门处理环境问题的机构,且为在全球层面上处理环境问题作出了重要贡献。自1972年成立以来,以里约会议为分界点,联合国环境规划署的发展可分为两个阶段,其在这两个阶段的发展状况有所不同。UNEP成立以来为世界环境保护事业做了很多努力,取得了可喜的成绩,但是世界环境恶化的趋势并没有得到遏制,国际环境管理体制存在着诸多的问题,UNEP面临着巨大的挑战和新的机遇。     

未来50年鄱阳湖流域气候变化预估

据 ECHAM5/ MPI OM模式在3种排放情景（SRES高排放A2,中排放A1B,低排放B1）下所做的21世纪前50年气候变化预估试验得到的数据,研究鄱阳湖流域2001~2050年气温和降水相对于目前气候（1961~1990年）的可能变化。结果表明：①未来50年气温在3种排放情景下都将迅速增加,远远高于1990s的增加幅度和速度。A1B情景温度增加最明显,平均气温变化达到162°C。②降水量变化相对复杂,前30年主要为减少趋势,A2情景下减少幅度最大,2020s年均降水量减少了67%;后20年降水量增加,B1情景增加最显著,2030s年增加幅度达到108%。③根据预估的各季节变化结果,1~3月和 4~6月降水量增加;而降水减少主要在7~9月和10~12月,则赣江流域类似于2003~2005年的伏旱、秋旱连冬旱的情况将可能阶段性出现,并在2011~2030年加强。④降水量的空间分异非常明显,东部变化大于西部,南部变化大于北部。⑤如果2001~2050年在A2或A1B情景下,降水序列存在20a的周期振荡;在B1情景下,存在30a的周期振荡。人类排放增加可能弱化振荡强度,并使周期发生变化。     

河流锶元素及其同位素地球化学研究现状与问题

文章系统阐述了近30年来河流锶元素及其同位素地球化学研究方面取得的进展、现状及目前存在的问题,这些问题主要包括:河流锶同位素比值对于源岩的解释问题、河流锶元素含量及其同位素组成的全球参比值问题、不同的端元输入对河流锶元素及其同位素组成的影响以及不同制约因素及研究方法对河流锶元素及其同位素组成的影响等问题。根据目前的研究资料,笔者指出在进行河流锶元素及其同位素地球化学研究过程中应当:(1)考虑矿物岩石在风化过程中锶元素的释放特征及其同位素演化规律;(2)结合同位素地球化学及雨水化学方法对大气及人类活动输入对河流锶元素及其同位素组成的贡献进行校正;(3)开展主要流域的研究工作,尤其是不同构造、地质及气候背景条件不同流域间的对比研究,建立河流锶元素及其同位素组成区域参比值;(4)在研究方法上,应该对区域内降雨、岩石、土壤、沉积物及地下水中的锶元素及其同位素地球化学特征进行系统分析,包括不同形态的锶元素及其同位素地球化学特征的研究。     

特别选题:海河流域水环境演化机理与水污染防治基础 序

海河流域既在全国经济社会发展格局中占有十分重要的战略地位,也是我国水资源最为紧缺的地区,水资源供需矛盾异常突出,自然水循环受到社会水循环强烈干扰;湿地生态系统退化严重;水环境风险偏高。海河流域作为人类活动扰动强度较大和复杂的区域,流域水环境演化机理和水污染防治基础的研究具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。     

环境风险评估的技术本质

指明环境风险评估属于工程科学领域中的一门社会技术,从工程科学角度阐释了环境风险评估本质属性,即包括主体和客体、目的和标准、内容和方法以及应遵循的几项基本原则。研究表明,解析环境风险评估技术本质对于推动工程科学的社会技术研究具有学理与现实层面的示范作用。