约束条件下中国循环经济发展中的生态效率——基于优化的超效率SBM-Malmquist-Tobit模型

以中国30个省份、直辖市、自治区的年度面板数据为研究对象,重点将生态资源存量和环境污染造成的经济浪费两项指标纳入新的生态效率评价体系,运用优化的引入非期望产出的超效率SBM模型测算生态效率,再运用Malmquist指数考察全要素生产率（TFP）与生态效率的动态变动关系,最后运用Tobit回归分析探索生态效率主要影响因素的方向、强度和变化趋势,以此度量和展现循环经济发展的整体情况.结果显示：生态效率呈现由东到西、由沿海到内陆逐渐收敛的格局,东部沿海地区和中部、西部内陆地区间,循环经济发展水平存在显著的阶梯式区域失衡;生态效率的集群效应明显,辐射效应不足,不同地区或同一地区的不同省份间,循环经济发展水平同样参差不齐;经济发展引发的生态赤字问题逐步缓解,但在短时间内经济和生态的矛盾依旧存在,西北地区尤为突显;第三产业比重、技术进步、市场开放对生态效率的提升具有积极作用且趋于强化;政府规制、人口密度对生态效率的提升也具有积极作用但趋于减弱;第二产业比重、能源结构对生态效率的改善存在负面影响亦趋于强化.     

Sharing the geo-Referenced Results of Climate Change Impact Research

The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) has implemented an Internet Map Server (IMS) at the PARC web site (www.parc.ca) to 1) disseminate the geo-referenced results of PARC sponsored research on climate change impacts and adaptation, and 2) address data, information and knowledge management within the PARC network of researchers and partners. PARC facilitates interdisciplinary research on adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the Canadian Prairie Provinces. The web site is intended as a platform for sharing information and encouraging discussion of climate change impacts and adaptation. The IMS enables scientists and stakeholders to apply simple climate change scenarios to geo-referenced biophysical and social data, and dynamically create maps that display the geographic distribution of potential impacts of climate change. With a limited capacity for spatial analysis, most geo-processing and the climate impact modeling is done offline within a GIS environment. The IMS will serve the output from climate impact models, such that the model results can be customized by the web site user and be most readily applied to the planning and analysis of adaptation strategies.     

Status and Trends of Dissolved Oxygen in Corpus Christi Bay, Texas, U.S.A.

The purpose of this studywas to determine status and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen concentrations (DO) in Corpus Christi Bay, Texas, U.S.A. A 20-year record of randomized stations was used to determine the trend of surface water DO, salinity, and temperature over space and time. A 13-year record of two fixed stations was used to determine the temporal nutrient trends. A 10-year record of fixed stations in the southeastern region of Corpus Christi Bay was used to determine the status of disturbance caused by low DO in bottom waters. From 1982 to 2002, there was a significant decrease in surface water DO at a rate of 0.06 mg L⁻¹ yr⁻¹ and a significant increase in surface water temperature at a rate of 0.07°C yr⁻¹. The southeastern region of Corpus Christi Bay had the lowest average DO, and during July and August, DO are steadily declining at a rate of 0.09 mg L⁻¹ yr⁻¹. It is not likely that eutrophication is causing hypoxia, because freshwater inflow rates have significantly decreased since 1941 and nutrient levels have not changed from 1987 to 2000. Even though long-term trends indicate that average surface DO is decreasing, disturbance by hypoxia appears to be stable, but this may be due to just eight years of data. In fact, if the current trend continues, surface water DO will not meet exceptional aquatic life standards (≤5 mgL⁻¹) in 2032.     

A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

Mega-Development Trends in the Amazon: Implications for Global Change

This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr^–1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr^–1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr^–1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia.The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranho, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin.The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges.Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO₂ and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO₂.     

The interaction between physical and social-psychological factors in indoor environmental health

Indoor environmental health is now recognized as an important factor in preventing respiratory health problems in the United States. It is also a concern in Canada due to the amount of time that Canadians spend indoors because of cold weather and the potential for increased time indoors during the summer if theclimate warms. The negative health effects are often labeled assick building syndrome, but diagnosing a building or itsoccupants as sick is complicated by the variety of symptoms, thepresence of chronic versus acute symptoms and social andpsychological (socio-psychological) factors that may reduce theeffectiveness of an engineering solution. As a case study, thecontribution of various factors to indoor environmental health,in three buildings at the University of Toronto, was examinedusing five different methods. The results indicate that theinhabitants of the buildings consider features other than airquality in considering building health such as design,maintenance, funding cuts and socio-psychological factors.     

中国土壤中溴,碘的背景含量

通过对全国八百余个表层土样的分析测试,获得了中国土壤中溴、碘背景含量的总体水平及在各土类中的含量,相对于地壳丰度,中国土壤中溴、碘普遍得到了富集,溴、碘含量分异变化较大,并具有明显的地域分异特征,影响中国土壤中溴、碘含量的主要因素是降水量、土壤吸附体的含量以及某些特殊母质。     

武汉东湖湖水的藻类生长潜力(AGP)测试

在东湖湖水样品中添加排入东湖的主要污水或营养物(氮和磷)进行藻类测试,观察它们对斜生橱藻(Scenedesmus obliquus)的生长促进作用.生长反应与添加的污水浓度成正比,其SC_(20)(促进20％增长的浓度)为0.5—4％.单独添加氮或磷,在高浓度情况下也很少促进藻类生长,但共同添加时大多有促进作用.东湖为一严重富营养型湖泊,为了控制其富营养化进程,污水截流应是首先要采取的一项措施.     

乙酸型顶极群落的内平衡与反馈调节机制研究

通过产酸脱硫反应器处理高浓度硫酸盐有机废水的连续流试验，从“动态”角度考察COD／SO4^2-比改变引起的pH值、氧化还原电位（ORP）、碱度（ALK）和末端产物（VFAs）等的变动及生态因子的叠加效应引发的优势种群变迁，分析了乙酸型顶极群落的稳定性及其发生定向性生态演替的规律，进而阐明了乙酸型顶极群落抵抗环境压力的内平衡与反馈调节机制，并指出乙酸型代谢和乙酸型顶极群落是产酸脱硫生态系统的典型特征。     

城市大气环境质量主要影响因素分析

采用灰色关联度分析方法，对影响城市大气环境质量的因素进行了相关分析，并对呈负相关关系的影响因素关联度计算采取了倒数化算子处理，使计算结果更切合实际。