地震应急的影响因素分析

本文在理论分析、国内外历史震例和救灾案例研究的基础上,同时参照我国的相关政策和法律法规文件,对影响地震应急(包括震前准备和震后应急行动)的因素进行了初步分类,并系统讨论了这些因素影响地震应急的方式、途径和程度.以期为地震应急的理论研究和地震应急的实际工作提供部分补充和指导.     

基于FAHP的黄河中下游灾害系统脆性评价

首次将复杂系统的脆性引用到黄河灾害的研究中,并根据复杂系统的层次结构,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)对黄河中下游灾害系统进行了分析.由模糊层次分析法求得了灾害子系统的相对重要度排序向量,找出了极易使黄河中下游系统崩溃的脆性因素.结合黄河中下游的现状,通过对系统必要的脆性分析,为决策者提供重要的参考依据.     

城镇供热管道隐患辨识研究

近年来,因供热管道老化腐蚀、外部自然环境、施工活动等导致的事故时有发生,给居民的冬季供暖造成了严重的危害和影响。本文在分析供热管道自身安全特性的基础上,运用事故树等系统安全分析方法对供热管道隐患进行辨识分析,结合供热管道影响因素明确隐患辨识重点,并针对隐患排查内容及手段等提出对策建议,以支撑供热管道单位更系统、更科学的开展隐患排查治理工作,保障管线的安全运行。     

Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

Driving while impaired by alcohol: An analysis of drink-drivers involved in UK collisions

Objective: Drink-driving represents a critical issue on international organizations’ agendas as one of the key behavioral risk factors in road traffic safety, alongside speed and nonuse of motorcycle helmets, seat belts, and child restraints. Changing road user behaviors regarding these 5 factors is a critical component in reducing road traffic injuries and casualties. The objective of this study is the identification of drivers who are more likely to contribute to crashes in the UK while impaired by alcohol to design targeted drink drive compliance campaigns.

Method: To profile drivers with the factor “impaired by alcohol” assigned in collisions, an extensive data set is used, including all reported injury collisions between 2011 and 2015 in the UK (police records), merged with the Experian Mosaic Database. A multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression is conducted, utilizing the hierarchical nature of the data (drivers within Mosaic types).

Results: Using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analysis, the finding is that some driver profiles are more likely to contribute to crashes and are assigned the contributory factor “impaired by alcohol.” Drink-related crashes are more common in some circumstances or for some crash-involved driver groups than others. For instance, alcohol-related crashes are more likely to occur on single carriageways and among males and 25- to 35-year-olds. Drink-drive-related crashes are found to be strongly associated with dark lighting conditions and, more specifically, with late night hours (the interval between 3:00 a.m. and 4:00 a.m. accounts for a third of the drink-drive-related collisions). Using the Experian Mosaic Database which divides the UK population into 66 types based on demographic, lifestyle, and behavior characteristics, the finding is that, among crash-involved drivers, some Mosaic types are significantly more likely (e.g., pocket pensions, dependent greys, streetwise singles) and others are significantly less likely (e.g., crowded kaleidoscope, cultural comfort, penthouse chic) to contribute to a drink-related crash.

Conclusions: The outcome is a more nuanced understanding of drivers contributing to drink-related crashes in the UK. The study concludes by discussing the implications for governments and other interested bodies for better targeting and delivery of public education campaigns and interventions.     

The data not collected on community forestry

Conservation and development practitioners increasingly promote community forestry as a way to conserve ecosystem services, consolidate resource rights, and reduce poverty. However, outcomes of community forestry have been mixed; many initiatives failed to achieve intended objectives. There is a rich literature on institutional arrangements of community forestry, but there has been little effort to examine the role of socioeconomic, market, and biophysical factors in shaping both land‐cover change dynamics and individual and collective livelihood outcomes. We systematically reviewed the peer‐reviewed literature on community forestry to examine and quantify existing knowledge gaps in the community‐forestry literature relative to these factors. In examining 697 cases of community forest management (CFM), extracted from 267 peer‐reviewed publications, we found 3 key trends that limit understanding of community forestry. First, we found substantial data gaps linking population dynamics, market forces, and biophysical characteristics to both environmental and livelihood outcomes. Second, most studies focused on environmental outcomes, and the majority of studies that assessed socioeconomic outcomes relied on qualitative data, making comparisons across cases difficult. Finally, there was a heavy bias toward studies on South Asian forests, indicating that the literature on community forestry may not be representative of decentralization policies and CFM globally.     

Interactions between Carbon Sequestration and Shade Tree Diversity in a Smallholder Coffee Cooperative in El Salvador

Agroforestry systems have substantial potential to conserve native biodiversity and provide ecosystem services. In particular, agroforestry systems have the potential to conserve native tree diversity and sequester carbon for climate change mitigation. However, little research has been conducted on the temporal stability of species diversity and aboveground carbon stocks in these systems or the relation between species diversity and aboveground carbon sequestration. We measured changes in shade‐tree diversity and shade‐tree carbon stocks in 14 plots of a 35‐ha coffee cooperative over 9 years and analyzed relations between species diversity and carbon sequestration. Carbon sequestration was positively correlated with initial species richness of shade trees. Species diversity of shade trees did not change significantly over the study period, but carbon stocks increased due to tree growth. Our results show a potential for carbon sequestration and long‐term biodiversity conservation in smallholder coffee agroforestry systems and illustrate the opportunity for synergies between biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. Interacciones entre el Secuestro de Carbono y la Diversidad de Árboles de Sombra en una Cooperativa de Café de Pequeños Agricultores en El Salvador     

Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models

Abstract: Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process‐based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf‐area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species’ use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.     

昌黎生态监控区夏季浮游植物群落年际变化特征分析

为研究昌黎生态监控区夏季浮游植物群落结构特征及其与环境因子关系,采用2005~2013年夏季(8月)昌黎生态监控区海域浮游植物及环境因子的监测资料,基于Arc GIS 10.0和Canoco软件平台,运用典范对应分析方法,对浮游植物群落结构进行分析.结果表明,近9 a共鉴定出浮游植物3门23科39属105种,其中,硅藻门16科32属90种,占浮游植物总数的85.7%;甲藻门共6科6属14种,占总种类数的13.3%;金藻门1种.各年的优势种存在很大差异,按照优势度Y值的大小包括辐射圆筛藻(Coscinodiscus radiatus)、柔弱角毛藻(Coscinodiscus debilis)、笔尖根管藻(Rhizosolenia styliformis)、柏氏角管藻(Cerataulina bergoni)、威氏圆筛藻(Coscinodiscus wailesii)、海链藻(Thalassiosira sp.)、三角角藻(Ceratium tripos)、洛氏角毛藻(Coscinodiscus wailesii)、中肋骨条藻(Ceratium tripos)等.夏季细胞丰度年际变化较大,呈现逐渐降低的趋势.浮游植物的多样性指数H'值介于0.015~3.889,均匀度指数J值介于0.009~1,年际变化幅度较小;各站位间物种分布不均匀,优势种较少且优势度较大.对浮游植物群落与环境因子进行典范对应分析(CCA),结果表明影响夏季浮游植物群落结构变化的环境因子包括水温、营养盐(磷酸盐、硝酸氮、氨氮)、盐度等,且是各个环境因子相互作用的结果.     

经口摄入土壤多溴联苯醚生物可给性变化及影响因素的体外消化模拟

误食土壤是污染物(如多溴联苯醚)人体(主要是儿童)暴露的重要途径,人体消化道内污染物吸收的生物可给性是针对此种暴露方式进行定量风险评估的有效途径之一.本研究采用体外消化实验模拟3种不同有机碳含量的天然土壤中典型多溴联苯醚(BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153)在胃和小肠消化液中的释放,验证部分消化释放的多溴联苯醚因消化残留固相表面的再吸附造成低估实际生物可给性,并通过不同水土比的拟合计算予以校正.结果表明,校正后的消化率普遍高于校正前;就不同土样而言,BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153在不同初始暴露浓度条件下平均提升比例范围分别为14.3%~42.3%、11.1%~32.1%、4.9%~12.3%和0.0%~7.7%.因此,未经校正的消化率会显著低估PBDEs消化道内的生物可给性,尤其是低溴代组分及PBDEs初始浓度较高或高TOC含量的土样.校正后BDE-28、BDE-47、BDE-99和BDE-153的消化率分别维持在21.9%~54.7%、18.8%~43.1%、13.4%~27.2%和9.3%~19.9%.此外,PBDEs的消化率与其辛醇-水分配系数的对数lg KOW呈显著负相关;而与土壤TOC含量及PBDEs初始暴露浓度的相关性并不显著,尤其是高溴代组分.