The GaNE programme in a global perspective

This paper provides the background to this special issue, outlining the extent to which the global atmospheric nitrogen cycle has been modified by human activity and outlining the range of effects. The global total emissions of reduced and oxidized nitrogen, amount to 124 Tg N, and exceed those from natural sources (34 Tg N) by almost a factor of four showing the extent to which anthropogenic activity has taken over the global N cycle. Of the 124 Tg N, 70 Tg N is emitted in the oxidized form, largely as NO and 70% of which results directly from anthropogenic activity. The remaining 54 Tg N is emitted as NH₃, (66% anthropogenic). The enhanced nitrogen emissions are associated with a range of local, regional and global issues including, acidification, eutrophication, climate change, human health and tropospheric O₃. The paper also places the Global Nitrogen Enrichment (GaNE) research programme in the UK in a wider perspective.     

THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE VARIATION ON THE ESTIMATION OF LOW FLOWS USED TO PROTECT WATER QUALITY: A NATIONWIDE ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Historical flow records are used to estimate the regulatory low flows that serve a key function in setting discharge permit limits through the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System, which provides a nationwide mechanism for protecting water quality. Use of historical records creates an implicit connection between water quality protection and climate variability. The longer the record, the more likely the low flow estimate will be based on a broad set of climate conditions, and thus provides adequate water quality protection in the future. Unfortunately, a long record often is not available at a specific location. This analysis examines the connection between climate variability and the variability of biologically based and hydrologically based low flow estimates at 176 sites from the Hydro‐Climatic Data Network, a collection of stream gages identified by the USGS as relatively free of anthropogenic influences. Results show that a record of 10 to 20 years is necessary for satisfactory estimates of regulatory low flows. Although it is possible to estimate a biologically based low flow from a record of less than 10 years, these estimates are highly uncertain and incorporate a bias that undermines water quality protection.     

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

飞机实验室气候试验风险识别及分析

目的 研究飞机实验室气候试验过程中风险的识别及分析问题.方法 根据飞机实验室气候试验流程,针对试验设计、试验准备、试验实施和试验确认等阶段进行风险识别和分析.结果 及结论识别并分析出实验室气候试验各阶段的风险,并在国内首次某民机实验室气候试验中得到应用.     

祁连山七一冰川物质平衡的时空变化特征

基于2011-2016年七一冰川的野外观测资料,结合气象站数据及1975-2015年的遥感影像,分析了冰川末端变化、物质平衡时空变化特征及其对气候变化的敏感性,结果表明:1975年以来,七一冰川末端持续退缩235 m,平均退缩速率为5.9 m/a,冰川面积减少0.13 km²(4.5%)。2011-2016年,七一冰川的平均物质平衡为-476 mm w.e.,平均ELA为4941 m a.s.l.,物质平衡梯度为2.9 mm/m。从季节变化看,受风吹雪和冰面升华影响,11月至次年3月冰川呈负平衡;4月和9月物质平衡受降水控制,随海拔变化呈现降水效应;强消融期(6-8月)物质平衡随海拔升高线性增加;消融期末由9月初延后至9月底。敏感性分析结果表明,物质平衡对气温变化的敏感性为-178.7 mm w.e.°C^-1a^-1,对降水变化的敏感性为+2.93 mm w.e. mm^-1a^-1。即61 mm的降水增加才能弥补暖季气温升高1°C引起的冰川净物质损失。     

气候变化和人类活动对伊逊河流域径流变化的影响

借助Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验对气象水文序列进行一致性分析,划分基准期(1961—1979年)和影响期(①1980—1989年、②1990—1999年、③2000—2016年),利用基准期校准的可变下渗容量(VIC)模型,采用步进式方法,探究气候变化和人类活动对伊逊河流域径流变化的波动影响过程。结果表明:研究区近56年年均气温显著升高,年降水量无明显变化趋势,流域年径流量下降趋势明显,季节尺度上流域非汛期降水量增加显著。气候变化和人类活动均会对径流产生显著影响且作用机理复杂,步进式方法对影响机理的研究较传统方法更能体现其变化过程;在降水丰沛的影响②期,冬季降水量增加会显著增加流域径流量,而在降水略少的影响①期和③期,蒸发量增加以及土壤含水量降低使得流域径流减少;人类活动耗水在影响①期和③期引起流域径流减少并且影响作用逐渐增强,影响②期由于城镇化和耕地扩张使得流域产流能力增强导致径流增加。深入研究气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响机制,可为流域水资源管理和规划提供理论依据。     

碳中和背景下欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国的影响及对策分析

在全球碳中和的新形势下,欧盟委员会于2021年7月正式提出“碳边境调节机制”（CBAM）立法提案,并计划于2023年起实施。本文在总结立法提案关键要素的基础上,着重分析欧盟CBAM的合法性与合理性,研判可能对我国产生的潜在影响,并从国际国内层面提出对策建议。分析发现,欧盟采取“名义”碳市场的形式,初期将覆盖水泥、电力、化肥、钢铁和铝等5个行业,只核算产品生产过程的直接排放,暂不考虑间接排放,2023—2025年是过渡期,2026年开始正式实施。欧盟CBAM的合法性与合理性面临诸多挑战：不符合世界贸易组织国民待遇原则和最惠国待遇原则,但存在满足关税与贸易总协定例外条款的可能性;违反国际气候治理的共同但有区别的责任原则、公平原则和各自能力原则,也不符合公约关于国际贸易歧视或变相限制的条款;对解决碳泄漏问题和保护本土竞争力的作用有限;产品隐含碳核算和碳价确定是技术难点问题。影响评估发现,欧盟CBAM将使我国受影响部门的对欧出口总额降低11%～13%,出口成本增加1亿～3.05亿美元,其中约四分之三的成本将由钢铁行业承担,对贸易隐含碳的下降作用有待进一步考量;此外,欧盟CBAM将会影响多边国际...     

中国江河氧化亚氮的排放及其影响因素

氧化亚氮(N₂O)是一种在大气中存留时间很长的强效温室气体,并被认为是21世纪破坏臭氧层的重要物质之一,气候预测需要对自然与人为排放的包括N₂O在内的温室气体进行全面准确地估算.内陆水体是N₂O的重要排放源,由于人为氮输入的增加,江河N₂O的排放量可能逐年升高.本研究总结了江河N₂O排放速率的研究方法,重点汇总了中国各气候带十大流域江河N₂O的溶存浓度和水气界面交换通量,并与世界其他河流进行比较.结果表明我国江河溶存N₂O浓度为0.3～1591 nmol·L^-1,N₂O释放通量为-12.2～2262.1μmol·m^-2·d^-1,总体与世界其他江河的范围值具有可比性.在此基础上,进一步分析了江河N₂O的产生和释放机理,探讨了水中溶解性无机氮、溶解氧、有机碳以及水文、地形地貌与气象条件等对江河N₂O产生和释放...     

水质监测频率与极端气候对高原湖泊入湖河流氮磷通量估算的影响

河流是流域氮磷营养盐的主要输出途径之一,准确掌握其通量变化和驱动因素对流域营养盐管理具有重要意义.本研究以滇池主要入湖河流宝象河为例,基于周水质观测数据和逐日水量数据,构建了河流氮磷通量LOADSET模型.估算了宝象河不同时间尺度(日、季、年)TN和TP的通量,评估了4种低频水质采样和极端气候指数对河流氮磷通量计算的影响.结果表明:(1)2018年宝象河的TN和TP年通量分别为270.49 t和11.19 t,存在显著的年内差异,夏季是通量最高的季节,分别占TN和TP年通量的40.78%和41.96%.(2)基于LOADEST模型的低频水质采样的氮磷估算结果与高频采样差异较小,宝象河TN、TP通量估算受采样频率影响较小.(3)宝象河的TN和TP通量变化受连续5日最大降水量、平均最低气温、平均最高气温、最低气温、最低气温极大值、最高气温极小值和平均温差7种极端气候指数的显著影响.     

中国中东部地区地表水环境锶元素地球化学特征研究

水环境中锶的含量及其变化、地理分布及其控制因素等特征的研究有助于认识区域水文地球化学特征及流域盆地岩石风化速率等地球化学行为,因此河流环境中锶的地球化学行为是地球化学研究的重要课题之一。对我国中东部地区部分河流水体中溶解态锶含量进行了分析研究发现,与世界上主要河流溶解态锶含量平均值0.078 mg/L相比,中国中东部地区河水中的锶含量(0.139 mg/L)明显偏高。分析研究表明,中国中东部地区河水中的锶主要源于蒸发盐岩和碳酸盐岩的风化作用,流域锶含量从南向北逐渐增加的现象主要受流域岩石或沉积物类型的控制,化学风化作用越强烈,河流锶含量越高。除了受区域岩性的影响外,气候条件对流域河水中的锶含量水平及地理分布起到一定的控制作用。