青藏高原东北部更尕海沉积软体动物壳体同位素初步研究

文章通过建立更尕海湖泊沉积岩芯软体动物化石属种组合,对比分析了软体动物壳体碳氧同位素的种内、种间变化。结果显示,壳体氧同位素种内变化较小,通常小于0.3‰;相同属不同种的壳体氧同位素种间差异约为0.3‰,但较相同属种的波动幅度大:不同属种的壳体氧同位素的种间差异最大,且波动幅度更大一些。壳体碳同位素的种内和种间差异均较氧同位素大,尤其是碳同位素的种间差异更为显著,可能与软体动物的"生命效应"有关。合理评价软体动物壳体同位素种内和种间变化对于理解软体动物壳体同位素所记录的气候变化具有重要的意义。     

广西邦亮东黑冠长臂猿栖息地的气候资源分析

气候资源是影响动物行为、发育、存活、繁殖与分布等的重要因子。为了探明广西邦亮东黑冠长臂猿栖息地的气候环境特征,对其栖息地附近县(乡)的主要气象要素进行统计与分析。结果表明:广西邦亮东黑冠长臂猿栖息地年均日照时数为1 521.8小时,月变幅为25.44%;年均气温为19.1℃,最冷月平均气温为11.0℃,最热月平均气温为25.0℃;年均降雨量为1 606.3 mm,月变幅为86.05%;年均蒸发量为1 507.1 mm,月变幅为28.06%;年均相对湿度为80%,月变幅为2.60%;年均风速为1.5 m/s,月变幅为15.4%。     

松嫩平原部分县域重点工业企业发展与污染防治同步策略探讨

县域工业污染防治是工业化、城镇化进程中一个不可忽视的问题。应注重排放COD、烟尘等主要污染物浓度高且量较大的重点行业和企业,根据这些企业的运行规律和当地的气候特点,深入开展污染防治。以松嫩平原北部,有代表性的工业城市所辖县为重点,进行了探讨。     

适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度。因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对＂适应气候变化＂却有所忽视。其实,对发展中国家《适应气候变化》才是当务之急。本文在＂发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖＂减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径。     

Does safety climate moderate the influence of staffing adequacy and work conditions on nurse injuries?

PROBLEM: Hospital nurses have one of the highest work-related injury rates in the United States. Yet, approaches to improving employee safety have generally focused on attempts to modify individual behavior through enforced compliance with safety rules and mandatory participation in safety training. We examined a theoretical model that investigated the impact on nurse injuries (back injuries and needlesticks) of critical structural variables (staffing adequacy, work engagement, and work conditions) and further tested whether safety climate moderated these effects. METHOD: A longitudinal, non-experimental, organizational study, conducted in 281 medical-surgical units in 143 general acute care hospitals in the United States. RESULTS: Work engagement and work conditions were positively related to safety climate, but not directly to nurse back injuries or needlesticks. Safety climate moderated the relationship between work engagement and needlesticks, while safety climate moderated the effect of work conditions on both needlesticks and back injuries, although in unexpected ways. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our findings suggest that positive work engagement and work conditions contribute to enhanced safety climate and can reduce nurse injuries.     

The predictive validity of safety climate

PROBLEM: Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. METHODS: This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628]. In addition, safety behavior and accident experience data were collected for 5 months following the survey and were statistically analyzed (structural equation modeling, confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis, etc.) to identify correlations, associations, internal consistency, and factorial structures. RESULTS: Results revealed that the ZSCQ: (a) was psychometrically reliable and valid, (b) served as an effective predictor of safety-related outcomes (behavior and accident experience), and (c) could be trimmed to an 11 item survey with little loss of explanatory power. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Practitioners and researchers can use the ZSCQ with reasonable certainty of the questionnaire's reliability and validity. This provides a solid foundation for the development of meaningful organizational interventions and/or continued research into social factors affecting industrial accident experience.     

1957-2007年新疆天山山区气候变化对径流的影响

利用天山山区1957-2007年的气温、降水量及径流数据,借助非参数检验、小波变换等方法分析了天山山区气温、降水量及年径流量的变化趋势及多时间尺度相关。结果表明:玛纳斯河与塔里木河源流区年径流量、气温与降水量均呈显著增加趋势;在年代际上,塔里木河源流区气温存在11、18和22 a的主周期,降水量存在10、20与22 a的主周期;玛纳斯河气温在10与22 a处存在明显周期,降水量在20与22 a处周期性明显;同时,两源流区气温和降水量皆存在3~6 a的年际周期变化;塔里木河年径流量、气温和降水量的突变点分别发生在1993、1993和1992年,而玛纳斯河分别在1995、1988与1996年发生显著性突变;两流域源流区年径流量与气候因子存在显著的多时间尺度相关关系。     

基于“公地悲剧”和“反公地悲剧”解析气候变暖和低碳技术壁垒

化石燃料的大量使用所排放的温室气体使得全球气候日益变暖,低碳经济的提出成为了目前全球应对气候变暖的主要策略,而发展中国家在进行低碳技术引进时常常面临来自发达国家的知识产权贸易壁垒。本文从"公地悲剧"角度解析气候变暖的经济学根源,从"反公地悲剧"角度揭示低碳技术转让过程中发达国家以知识产权为借口制造技术壁垒的经济学缘由。     

1961-2012 年西藏极端降水事件的变化

利用18 个气象站点1961-2012 年逐日降水量资料,计算了10 个极端降水指数,采用滑动平均、线性回归、Mann-Kendall 非参数检验和Morlet 小波分析等方法,分析了西藏极端降水事件的变化规律。结果表明：西藏近52 a 连续干旱日数（CDD）呈显著减少趋势,最大5 d 降水量也趋于减少但不显著,大雨日数和强降水量的线性趋势不明显,其他6 个极端降水指数都表现为增加趋势且不显著。与全球、青藏高原及其周边地区比较,西藏CDD和连续湿日的变幅明显偏大,最大1 日降水量、强降水量和极强降水量的变幅明显偏小。除CDD外,极端降水指数的变化趋势与海拔高度呈显著的二次曲线关系,仅有中雨日数的变化趋势与经度呈显著的正相关。在近52 a 的时间尺度上各项极端降水指数都存在3～4 a 显著周期,多数指数也存在12a、15 a 和16 a 的周期。在时间转折上,CDD的突变点时间较早,从1974 年开始;中雨日数、连续湿日和年总降水量的突变点发生在20 世纪80 年代末。从空间分布来看,那曲地区西部是极端降水指数变化最为显著的区域,雅鲁藏布江中游大部的多数极端降水指标趋于下降,而山南地区南部、林芝地区东南部的降水极值和降水强度都在增加。     

Adaptation of Climate Model Projections of Streamflow to Account for Upstream Anthropogenic Impairments

A statistical procedure is developed to adjust natural streamflows simulated by dynamical models in downstream reaches, to account for anthropogenic impairments to flow that are not considered in the model. The resulting normalized downstream flows are appropriate for use in assessments of future anthropogenically impaired flows in downstream reaches. The normalization is applied to assess the potential effects of climate change on future water availability on the Rio Grande at a gage just above the major storage reservoir on the river. Model‐simulated streamflow values were normalized using a statistical parameterization based on two constants that relate observed and simulated flows over a 50‐year historical baseline period (1964–2013). The first normalization constant is a ratio of the means, and the second constant is the ratio of interannual standard deviations between annual gaged and simulated flows. This procedure forces the gaged and simulated flows to have the same mean and variance over the baseline period. The normalization constants can be kept fixed for future flows, which effectively assumes that upstream water management does not change in the future, or projected management changes can be parameterized by adjusting the constants. At the gage considered in this study, the effect of the normalization is to reduce simulated historical flow values by an average of 72% over an ensemble of simulations, indicative of the large fraction of natural flow diverted from the river upstream from the gage. A weak tendency for declining flow emerges upon averaging over a large ensemble, with tremendous variability among the simulations. By the end of the 21st Century the higher‐emission scenarios show more pronounced declines in streamflow.