近49年中国夏季制冷度日数的变化

利用全国531个气象站1960~2008年逐日平均气温资料,分析了近49 a来我国夏季制冷度日数的变化趋势,并以浙江省为例分析了制冷度日数与夏季空调降温电力负荷的关系。主要结论如下：我国日平均温度等于或高于26℃的日数（1971~2000年平均）大于10 d,夏季有制冷需求的站点主要分布在新疆、四川盆地和太行山 巫山 雪峰山一线以东地区,以及云南干热河谷地区。1960~2008年我国黄河以北地区夏季有制冷需求的站点6~9月平均气温从20世纪90年代中期开始呈现出较明显的上升趋势,使得制冷日数和度日数都相应增加;黄河以南、南岭以北地区近49 a来6~9月平均气温线性趋势不明显,制冷度日数变化不大;南岭以南地区6~9月气温持续上升,夏季制冷度日数的增加最为显著。以浙江省为例的分析显示,制冷度日数与夏季空调降温电力负荷有很好的线性相关关系,可以用来预测降温耗电量。
     

Fast,cheap, and imperfect? US public opinion about solar geoengineering

ABSTRACT

Solar geoengineering, which seeks to cool the planet by reflecting a small fraction of sunlight back into space, has drawn the attention of scientists and policymakers as climate change remains unabated. Unlike mitigation, solar geoengineering could quickly and cheaply lower global temperatures. It is also imperfect. Its environmental impacts remain unpredictable, and its low cost and immediate effects may result in ‘moral hazard,’ potentially crowding out costly mitigation efforts. There is little understanding about how the public will respond to such tradeoffs. To address this, a 1000-subject nationally representative poll focused on solar geoengineering was conducted as part of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) of the US electorate in October–November 2016. The importance that individuals place on solar geoengineering’s speed and cost predicts their support for it, but there is little to no relationship between their concerns about its shortcomings and support for its research and use. Acquiescence bias appears to be an important factor for attitudes around solar geoengineering and moral hazard.     

东北地区典型农区土地利用变化对农业扩张和气候变化的响应研究

大规模的农业扩张和全球气候变化导致东北地区发生剧烈的土地利用/土地覆盖变化。本研究分析了研究区1976—2008年的土地利用变化和生长季各月气温的变化趋势,并结合农业扩张程度,探究LUCC对农业扩张和气候变化的响应,为指导农业发展规划和保障国家粮食安全提供理论依据。结果表明,1976—2008年农田面积逐步增加,生长季气温一直呈上升趋势。1976—2001年生长季气温的上升趋势不稳定,气温变化程度较大;2001—2008年,农业扩张放缓,生长季气温上升趋势显著,且上升趋势一直增加,气温变化比上一时期更稳定;且这两个时期农业扩张和气候变化对土地利用强度的影响在南北和东西方向上均存在明显差异。     

Making cities resilient to climate change: identifying “win–win” interventions

Urbanisation is truly a global phenomenon. Starting at 39% in 1980, the urbanisation level rose to 52% in 2011. Ongoing rapid urbanisation has led to increase in urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban climate change risks have also increased with increase in climate-induced extreme weather events and more low-income urban dwellers living in climate sensitive locations. Despite increased emissions, including GHGs and heightened climate change vulnerability, climate mitigation and adaptation actions are rare in the cities of developing countries. Cities are overwhelmed with worsening congestion, air pollution, crime, waste management, and unemployment problems. Lack of resources and capacity constraints are other factors that discourage cities from embarking on climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways. Given the multitude of problems faced, there is simply no appetite for stand-alone urban climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Urban mitigation and adaptation goals will have to be achieved as co-benefits of interventions targeted at solving pressing urban problems and challenges. The paper identifies administratively simple urban interventions that can help cities solve some of their pressing service delivery and urban environmental problems, while simultaneously mitigating rising urban GHG emissions and vulnerability to climate change.     

The climate adaptation imperative: local choices targeting global problems?

When confronted with the demands of global climate change, what causes some policy-makers to move the climate adaptation agenda forward in their communities, while others seemingly get little accomplished? To answer this question, we first discuss work on policy-drivers in a coupled human–natural systemic context. This summary review of past research helps us develop a set of competing and complementary explanations for why some communities aggressively pursue climate adaptation policies, while others do less. Following the discussion of policy-drivers, we then undertake an aggregate-level analysis of data collected across the 169 towns in Connecticut regarding climate adaptation, thus linking policy to its fundamental global cause. The quantitative data are augmented with interview data from policy-makers and activists from around the New England region.     

Collaborative approaches to local climate change and clean energy initiatives in the USA and England

This paper analyses how 10 localities in the USA and England, recognised as leaders in clean energy and climate action, have used collaborative approaches to develop local climate change plans and energy conservation, efficiency, and renewable energy initiatives. It examines these planning and policy-making processes in the context of Margerum's [2008. A typology of collaboration efforts in environmental management. Environmental Management, 41 (4), 487–500] typology of “action”, “organizational”, and “policy-level” collaborations, as well as Gray's [1989. Collaborating: finding common ground for multiparty problems. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass] classification of collaboration in the “problem-setting”, “direction-setting”, and “implementation” phases. We conducted interviews with local elected officials, municipal staff, energy professionals, and citizen volunteers in each community, supplemented with an analysis of their adopted energy, climate change, and land-use plans. We find that despite the different government structures and political contexts between the two countries, there was a surprising amount of commonality in how the case study localities used collaborative planning to develop local climate plans and clean energy initiatives. These processes were most often initiated by local elected officials and/or high-level staff members, and then carried out in collaboration with local third-sector organisations and other community stakeholders. In the USA, collaboration was strongest at the policy level and in the direction-setting phase, with the distinguishing feature that citizen advisory boards or stakeholder working groups often took a more active role in shaping local plans and policies. The English localities had some of those same types of collaborations, but were more likely to also employ action collaboration, in the implementation phase, in which third-sector organisations coordinated with the locality to directly provide clean energy services.     

Think globally,act locally: neighbourhood pollution and the future of the earth

Each year governments and industry around the globe spend billions of dollars in search of treatments and cures for diseases that shorten lives, which often means gadgets, implants, radiation and pills. These “cures”, do not get to the root of the problem. Perhaps it is time for us to adjust our thinking to be more proactive instead of reactive in public health. Perhaps we need to consider confronting environmental pollution of air, soil and water at a local level. As the Physicians for Social Responsibility point out, we should be “preventing what we cannot cure”. One such preventive measure is ensuring that our communities, including our poor inner-city neighbourhoods, enjoy a clean environment. We challenge local and national policy-makers to respond to the global call and to take action to address environmental toxins; to take local action to ameliorate the pollution of the air, water and soil in so many of our nation’s neighbourhoods. A person’s neighbourhood, and the proximity of dangerous environmental contaminants within it, is a powerful predictor of how long s/he will live. While situations like the poisoning of the water in Flint, Michigan have gotten some attention, they are generally treated as the exception rather than a reflection of real environmental hazards that exist in the west. Moreover we wonder why more endemic issues of neighbourhood environmental contamination that shorten human lives are not a priority for local action or that it is not linked to disproportionate production of greenhouse gases that cause climate change/warming/chaos.     

Analysis of long-term changes in the dates of seasonal phenomena in plants and insects of the Il’men Reserve as related to climatic factors

The results of monitoring the dates of the onset of flowering and leaf budding in eight herbaceous and woody plant species and the first appearance of three insect species in the Il’men Reserve (1972–2005) were processed by means of regression and correlation analyses. No significant changes in test parameters were revealed in the majority of these species. Only two early spring plants, coltsfoot (Tussilago farfara L.) and goat willow (Salix caprea L.), showed a weak tendency toward earlier flowering in the 1980s and 1990s. This is explained primarily by the absence of any significant trends in spring and summer air temperatures in the study region over the observation period. On the other hand, interannual fluctuations in the dates of plant flowering and insect appearance were well manifested not only in early spring but also in late-spring species. These fluctuations proved to depend largely on spring temperatures: in years with early and warm springs, flowering and leaf budding in plants and the appearance of first individuals in insects were recorded on significantly earlier dates.     

Field Evaluation of DRAINMOD 5.1 Under a Cold Climate: Simulation of Daily Midspan Water Table Depths and Drain Outflows1

Abstract: The hydrologic performance of DRAINMOD 5.1 was assessed for the southern Quebec region considering freezing/thawing conditions. A tile drained agricultural field in the Pike River watershed was instrumented to measure tile drainage volumes. The model was calibrated using water table depth and subsurface flow data over a two‐year period, while another two‐year dataset served to validate the model. DRAINMOD 5.1 accurately simulated the timing and magnitude of subsurface drainage events. The model also simulated the pattern of water table fluctuations with a good degree of accuracy. The R² between the observed and simulated daily WTD for calibration was >0.78, and that for validation was 0.93. The corresponding coefficients of efficiency (E) were >0.74 and 0.31. The R² and E values for calibration/validation of subsurface flow were 0.73/0.48 and 0.72/0.40, respectively. DRAINMOD simulated monthly subsurface flow quite accurately (E > 0.82 and R² > 0.84). The model precisely simulated daily/monthly drain flow over the entire year, including the winter months. Thus DRAINMOD 5.1 performed well in simulating the hydrology of a cold region.     

Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.