汉江流域1951~2003年降水气温时空变化趋势分析

利用Mann Kendall检验方法和空间插值方法，分析了1951~2003年汉江流域年和春、夏、秋、冬四季降水和气温变化趋势的时空分布，并重点分析了丹江口水库上游年降水、年平均气温和北半球气温的变化趋势及相互间的联系。分析发现，在显著性水平α=0.1上，近50年来汉江流域大部分地区降水没有明显的变化趋势，气温呈上升趋势。丹江口水库上游降水在1991年发生突变，从20世纪80年代多雨期进入90年代少雨期，80年代平均降水比1951~2003年多年平均降水多9.7%，90年代平均降水比多年平均降水少11.6%；上游平均气温90年代比多年平均气温高0.2℃，而同期北半球的平均气温也比多年平均高了0.3℃，上游气温同北半球气温同步上升，而上游降水变化受北半球气温升高的影响不断减少，两者之间存在反相关系。分析成果有助于进一步研究气候变化对汉江流域水资源和防洪安全的影响，也将为南水北调中线工程的顺利实施提供科学依据。     

论长江流域生态危机与生态建设的对策

揭示了长江流域大面积山丘、水系生态系统普遍恶化,特别是中上游地区水土流失严重,以及因此而带来的一系列严重后果。根据史料、统计资料及实测成果等,分析了生态环境恶化的原因,着重研究了水土流失等生态失调现象与森林植被的紧密关系及其演变规律,探讨了进行绿色生态建设的必要性、可能性与可行性。最后提出了建设长江流域防护林体系的宏观战略和微观措施。     

ESTIMATION OF DAILY TEMPERATURE MEANS USING ELEVATION AND LATITUDE IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN1

ABSTRACT A model was developed for predicting mean daily, mean daily minimum, and mean daily maximum temperatures in West Virginia. The model is easily used since the only inputs are elevation, latitude, and julian date. With local calibration, the model is expected to apply to other areas in the Appalachian region.     

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY IN SUSPENDED SEDIMENT YIELDS OF NORTH ISLAND BASINS,NEW ZEALAND1

ABSTRACT: Specific annual suspended sediment yields and their standard deviations are presented for 47 basins of North Island, New Zealand. Most of the variance in yields is explained by catchment mean rainfall. Rivers with similar flow range have similar suspended sediment concentration ratings, independent of differing watershed lithology and regolith, except for six basins having an abundance of soft fine sediments. Prediction equations for yield and its standard deviation are derived for four essentially arbitrary regions. AU feature rainfall as the independent variable. Differences between regions may owe to variations in intensity, frequency, and duration patterns of storms and, in one area, to bed material size as well. The temporal distribution of annual yields from a basin m be modeled by a two-parameter lognormal function: the prediction equations above may be used to evaluate this function at a site for which suspended sediment data are unavailable.     

Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest-tundra communities in the polar urals

The spatiotemporal dynamics of forest-tundra communities in the 20th century have been studied in the timberline ecotone of the Polar Urals. Maps reflecting the distribution of different types of forest-tundra communities have been made, and data on the morphological and age structure of tree stands have been obtained for three time sections (the mid-1910s, 1960s, and 2000s). They show that open and closed forests have markedly expanded due to natural afforestation of the tundra and increase in the density and productivity of existing forest stands. The unidirectional pattern of plant community transition (from the tundra to closed forests) and meteorological data provide evidence that this transition has been conditioned by climate warming and increasing humidity recorded during the past 90 years.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 2, 2005, pp. 83–90.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Shiyatov, Terentev, Fomin.     

Some Lessons Learned from Public Health on the Process of Adaptation

Lessons learned from more than 150 years of public health research and intervention can provide insights to guide public health professionals and institutions as they design and implement specific strategies, policies, and measures to increase resilience to climate variability and change. This paper identifies both some modifications to public health systems that may enhance adaptive capacity, and lessons drawn from the history of managing environmental and other threats in the public health sector that may have relevance for other sectors as they design approaches to increase their adaptive capacity to more effectively cope with climate variability and change. The views expressed are the author’s own and do not represent official US EPA policy.     

Fingerprinting Global Climate Change and Forest Management Within Rhizosphere Carbon and Nutrient Cycling Processes

As one of the two Principal Subject Editors for ESPR Subject Area 1 'Terrestrial Ecology and Biology / Soil and Sediments: Toxicology-related Subjects' (see pp 287-293), the senior author and his colleague, Dr Chen, present an example of sub-category 4 'Environmental studies of pesticides, air pollution, and management strategies for forestry and plant ecosystems'. Thereby, they inform the ESPR community about the new Australian research project concerning the fingerprints of global climate change (GCC) and forest management on rhizosphere carbon and nutrient cycling and, subsequently, present an overview on the GCC and forest management fingerprints.     

全新世青藏高原东部西南季风的演变

本研究报道一组新的西南季风代用指标,即泥炭中单一种属植物———木里苔草残体纤维素和泥炭混合植物残体纤维素的δ13C时间序列,所记录的青藏高原东部全新世气候变化。两记录表明,该区全新世的下限年龄约11200aBP(14C年龄约9900aBP);从约11200aBP起该区迅速进入湿暖的全新世阶段,季风活动迅速增强;在约10800～5500aBP期间,季风总体保持在强盛状态,但其间有4次突然减弱,气候变干冷;约从5500aBP起季风活动在波动中逐渐减弱,其中有4次减弱最明显。所有这8次气候的突然变化都与北大西洋浮冰事件一一对应。这种密切的相关关系表明,西南季风强度的波动可能是对全球变化,特别是对海洋热盐环流引起的地球南北方气候波动的所谓"跷跷板效应"的响应。     

基于重构相空间充填体变形规律的灰色预测研究

尾砂胶结充填体是非线性力学介质,其变形是能量耗散的复杂过程,必须研究其内在变形规律,才能正确预测采矿过程中充填体的稳定性.对不同配比的尾砂胶结充填体进行力学试验,得出了其应力-应变规律,对安庆铜矿高阶段充填体变形进行了监测.采用自适应滤波原理,研究基于重构相空间的测量数据去噪处理方法.用灰色理论研究充填体变形在相空间中相点距离的演变规律,建立了重构相空间的灰色预测模型.为减小预测误差,对预测结果采用残差模型修正.应用建立的模型,对安庆铜矿高阶段充填体变形进行分析,确定了采场合理回采周期.结果表明,充填体变形具有非线性混沌特性,不同配比的充填体表现出不同的非线性动力学行为,重构相空间能充分展示充填体变形的内在规律.     

Demography and disappearing merchandise: How older workforces influence retail shrinkage

Prior research on retail shrinkage has taken a largely individual‐level approach to theorizing about why it occurs, showing that older employees are less prone to theft and more vigilant in preventing customer shoplifting than younger personnel. However, given the influence of organizational contexts on organizational behavior, theorizing about shrinkage may be enhanced by the consideration of business‐unit level contextual variables. The present study addressed this concern by examining the relationship between store‐level age composition, whistle‐blowing (WB) climate, and shrinkage in 726 retail stores. Results indicated that the negative mean age–shrinkage relationship was stronger when there was less age diversity or a climate more supportive of WB. Moreover, the negative WB climate–shrinkage linkage was stronger when the mean age was higher. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.