基于SWAT模型的汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应

汉江流域未来的气候变化趋势和对水资源的影响,将直接关系到南水北调工程和引江济汉工程的使用和效益。因此,分析研究汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应特点,可为地面调水、空中水资源开发、应对气候变化的不利影响和更好地保护南水北调中线水源区的水资源提供科学依据。以1971～2000年为基准期,应用SWAT模型对汉江流域基准期内的逐月径流进行了模拟;在30 a基准期径流模拟的基础上,以全球变化背景下可能出现的25种不同气候变化模式为假设条件,模拟出各假设气候变化模式下汉江流域水资源状况,获得了各气候变化模式下汉江流域水资源相对于基准期的变化率,研究了汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应程度。结果表明：模型模拟精度高于评价标准（〖WTBX〗Ens>05,r2>06〖WTBZ〗）,SWAT模型适用于汉江流域的径流模拟;不同气候变化情景下,汉江流域径流变化较实际蒸散发的变化明显;降水对地表径流、基流的影响要大于气温;气温对实际蒸散发的影响大于降水;降水增加或气温降低都会导致径流增加,而降水增加或气温增加都会导致实际蒸散发的增加.     

Carbon Embodied in International Trade of China and Its Emission Responsibility

Carbon emissions embodied in international trade of China during 1997-2007 are accounted by input-output method based on Chinese input-output table and global trade analysis project database.It is revealed that carbon emissions embodied in imports and exports both increased during 1997-2007,but carbon emissions embodied in exports are greater than those embodied in imports,China is a net export nation in embodied carbon.The net exports of embodied carbon account for about 10.82% of the total carbon emissions in 1997,dropped to 7.15% in 2002,increased to13.13% in 2006,and slightly dropped to 12.64% in 2007.Low-end position of international industry division is an objective factor of being a net exporter of embodied carbon for China,and usage of a large amount of obsolete energy-using equipments wasted much energy and increased carbon emissions embodied in exports.Importers should take more responsibilities for carbon emissions embodied in trade,and China should take a certain responsibility for unreasonable energy dissipations too.     

三峡库区21世纪气候变化的情景预估分析

利用政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告提供的新一代气候系统模式的模拟结果（IPCC AR4）,通过多模式集合方法预估分析了3种排放情景(高排放SRES A2、中等排放SRES A1B和低排放SRES B1)下三峡库区21世纪气候的可能变化。结果表明,挑选模拟性能较好的模式进行的多模式集合对库区气温和降水的变化具有较好的模拟能力,21世纪库区气候总体有显著变暖、变湿的趋势,年平均气温变暖趋势为2.1~4.2℃/100 a,年降水增加趋势为6.1%~9.7%/100 a。就季节变化而言,冬季的变暖幅度最大,降水增加幅度最大。库区年平均气温在21世纪将持续呈上升趋势,而年降水在21世纪前期有减少趋势,在中期和后期逐渐增多。在A2、A1B和B1排放情景,21世纪后期气温分别比常年偏暖3.7、3.3和2.2℃,年降水分别比常年偏多4.4%、5.5%和3.5%。     

A Simple Framework for Incorporating Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts into Existing Water Resource Management Practices1

Gong, Gavin, Lucien Wang, Laura Condon, Alastair Shearman, and Upmanu Lall, 2010. A Simple Framework for Incorporating Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts Into Existing Water Resource Management Practices. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):574-585. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00435.x Abstract: Climate-based streamflow forecasting, coupled with an adaptive reservoir operation policy, can potentially improve decisions by water suppliers and watershed stakeholders. However, water suppliers are often wary of straying too far from their current management practices, and prefer forecasts that can be incorporated into existing system modeling tools. This paper presents a simple framework for utilizing streamflow forecasts that works within an existing management structure. Climate predictors are used to develop seasonal inflow forecasts. These are used to specify operating rules that connect to the probability of future (end of season) reservoir states, rather than to the current storage, as is done now. By considering both current storage and anticipated inflow, the likelihood of meeting management goals can be improved. The upper Delaware River Basin in the northeastern United States is used to demonstrate the basic idea. Physically plausible climate-based forecasts of March-April reservoir inflow are developed. Existing simulation tools and rule curves for the system are used to convert the inflow forecasts to reservoir level forecasts. Operating policies are revised during the forecast period to release less water during forecasts of low reservoir level. Hindcast simulations demonstrate reductions of 1.6% in the number of drought emergency days, which is a key performance measure. Forecasts with different levels of skill are examined to explore their utility.     

芜湖市城市化气候变化特征分析

运用R/S(Rescaled Range Analysis)方法,对芜湖市1953—2006年共54年间的气温、降水、相对湿度、日照等气象要素资料的年平均、冬季、夏季进行了分析计算。计算表明,各指标的Hurst指数均大于0.5,说明4个气象指标存在明显的Hurst现象,反映出芜湖市气候变化的特征与趋势,并预测了芜湖市气候未来的发展趋势,证明城市化已经对芜湖市气候变化产生了显著影响。     

Developments in the Framing of Climate Change as a Public Health Issue in US Newspapers

News media are major channels for the transmission of information to the public and deliver news about the latest developments regarding health issues such as climate change. How the media frame such information may enhance public understanding and enable appropriate responses by individuals and communities. This study follows up on previous research examining media portrayals of climate change in US newspapers from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2008. Here, we content analyze 270 news stories on climate change as a public health issue from five US newspapers between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2012. Findings indicate that the total number of articles about climate change declined while emphasis on the public health dimension of climate change increased. The types of generic news frames (i.e., dramatic/substantive) most frequently used did not considerably change across the two time periods, however. To explain this, we discuss ways in which people may assess and spark change in news framing of public issues to better reach and influence a range of audiences.     

Press Briefings in International Climate Change Negotiations

Press conferences are an important element of a government's communication strategy at climate change summits. From a theoretical perspective, press conferences should serve two main functions: exerting pressure in negotiations and informing the public. These functions correspond to two logics of action: a logic of consequence where governments use press conferences as negotiation tools and a logic of appropriateness where governments organize press conferences to increase transparency. Based on new data from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change archives, we find limited support for these two logics of action. Neither democracies, which, we argue, are more likely to follow a logic of appropriateness, nor vulnerable countries, which are more likely to follow a logic of consequence, organize systematically more press conferences. Other factors, such as capacity and a government's function in the negotiation structure, seem to play a more important role.     

基于气候变化的干旱脆弱性评价——以青海东部为例

基于青海东部农业区22个县区的20个气象、农业、社会经济统计指标,利用层次分析法和等级化等数学分析方法,分别进行了暴露性、敏感性和适应性的评价,再通过分析承险体的内在脆弱性,将气候变化和内在脆弱性进行综合分析,得到了青海东部干旱脆弱性等级。结果表明:在目前全球变暖背景下,干旱脆弱性最高的是民和、化隆,较高的是城中、城北区、湟中、大通等四县区,门源、互助、同仁、同德的干旱脆弱性中等。在此基础上,提出了强化旱灾的风险管理模式、倡导节约型水资源开发利用模式等干旱防范措施。     

企业管理人员气候变化意识的统计分析

本文首先总结了气候变化意识的定义和内涵,认为气候变化意识包括对气候变化的原因、影响和应对措施等问题的认知和应对气候变化的行为意愿两部分.其次基于问卷调查的数据,统计了企业管理人员对气候变化问题的认知和应对气候变化的行为意愿的各项问题的得分率.在气候变化的认知方面,受访者对于气候变化的原因的认知水平比较低,对于气候变化的全球协议和中国政策的认知水平非常低,对于气候变化的原因和减缓气候变化的措施的认知水平比较高,对于适应气候变化的各项措施的认知程度则有明显的差异;在应对气候变化的行为意愿方面,大多数受访者愿意在日常生活中采取行动减缓气候变化,也有大部分受访者认为企业是应对气候变化的主要利益相关方之一,企业应对气候变化的最主要的推动力是强制性的标准和法令的执行以及经济激励政策的引导,中国企业已经采取的应对气候变化的措施主要是节能减排取得了明显成效、淘汰了落后产能、开展了清洁生产及循环经济等.     

我国珍稀濒危物种适应气候变化的对策探讨

基于气候变化下部分珍稀濒危物种脆弱性分析,初步提出了适应对策,探讨了部分物种适应措施。气候变化下,珍稀濒危物种脆弱性表现在物种分布范围减少、破碎化和失去原分布范围、丰富度下降、种群数量减少、物种灭绝、栖息地退化或消失等。珍稀濒危物种适应气候变化需要分析物种自然适应机制,加强就地保护,增加种群数量,开展迁地和遗传保护,减少其它干扰,保护和恢复栖息地,建立自然保护区适应对策等。每个物种需要分析目前濒危程度和气候变化下的脆弱性来提出适应对策。