1961—2010年阿拉善左旗气温和地温的变化特征分析

关于气温变化特征已有大量研究,但关于地温变化及其与气温的关系研究还较少。该研究以干旱区为研究区域,利用1961—2010 年阿拉善左旗平均气温和0~80 cm各层平均地温的逐月资料,采用气候倾向率、累积距平、信噪比等气候统计方法研究了近50 a 阿拉善左旗气温和各层地温的年代和季节变化趋势、地气温差变化、气候突变和异常年份以及气温和地温关系。结果表明：气温与各层地温有很好的相关性;与年均气温相比,地温对气温的放大程度除0 cm外随土层深度增加呈增加趋势。年、季平均气温和各层平均地温均呈显著升高趋势,但气温和地温的升温速率不一致;年均气温的升温率和升温幅度高于除0 cm外的各层地温变化;气温、0 cm 和80 cm 地温在冬季的升温最大,5~40 cm 地温在春季升温最大;春、夏季,随土壤深度增加,地温呈减小趋势,气温介于各层地温之间;秋、冬季,随土壤深度增加,地温呈增加趋势,气温小于除0 cm外的各层地温增加;气候变暖背景下,年均、夏、秋和冬季的气温比地温的响应更快,而春季各层地温比气温的响应更迅速。近50 a 各层年均地温(0 cm除外)和气温的温差减小0.3~0.8℃;随土壤深度增加,地气温差的减小幅度降低。年均气温和各层地温的气候突变出现在1980 年代和1990 年代,而气温和地温在四季大多无气候突变现象。四季气温和各层地温的异常年存在一定的对应性,而年均气温和各层地温的异常年份一致性较差。     

祁连山中部素珠链峰地区冰川斑块动态分析

冰川斑块对气候变化的响应不仅表现在冰川长度和面积的变化,而且其格局在斑块数量、形状、平均欧几里德距离、连通度和最大斑块指数等指标上都发生了显著的变化.运用RS和GIS技术对祁连山东段典型地区2001-2009年间冰川斑块动态的分析表明:研究区冰川斑块面积减少了15.39%,面积<1 hm²的小斑块数量消失了50%以上,斑块形状指数在总体和分级层次上都呈减少的趋势,最大斑块的优势降低.由于小斑块消融和大斑块收缩,使斑块间平均欧几里德距离增加了16.56 m.斑块连通度具有尺度依赖性,当在阈限值<7 000 m时,2009年的冰川斑块连通度大于2001年;当阈限值>7 000 m时,趋势相反.7 000~8 000 m之间是尺度特征的转折点.从斑块动态变化来看,冰川斑块动态以消融斑块为主,消融面积为744.30 hm²,占起始面积的16.53%;新生斑块也同时发生,仅增加起始面积的1.15%.但是,消融和新生斑块发生的数量较多,分别为762和367个,冰川单个斑块面积大小与消融面积呈正相关.     

黑碳对气候的影响和中国黑碳减排措施

黑碳已经成为仅次于二氧化碳的气候影响因子,黑碳的排放问题越来越受到人们的关注。主要探讨了黑碳对气候的影响机理,并论述了黑碳主要是通过辐射强迫对全球气候产生影响,其中辐射强迫包括对可见光和部分红外光强吸附而造成的直接辐射强迫和通过云凝结核和冰雪反射影响等造成的间接辐射强迫。另外,还讨论了中国黑碳的排放问题,并且针对不同类别的排放源,提出了一些可行的减排建议。     

塌陷地粉煤灰充填复垦土壤的污染性分析

从粉煤灰的污染潜势分析入手,通过复垦土壤的测试分析、淋溶试验和种植试验,揭示了粉煤灰充填复垦土壤的污染性.研究表明,粉煤灰中重金属的水溶性差,同时因pH值高,抑制了作物对高含量污染重金属的吸收;淋溶试验也表明重金属元素的淋溶性弱;温室盆栽与大田作物籽实样品分析表明,样品中重金属含量符合国家有关标准,说明尽管复垦土壤存在重金属污染,仍然可以种植某些作物.     

新污染物共排放对生态环境监测和管理的挑战

从跨学科研究的角度,以氟化工行业为例,探讨了全氟和多氟烷基物质（PFAS）和臭氧层消耗物质（ODS）两大类新污染物的共排放问题.从生产过程上解析两类物质的共生产机制,构建其内在联系;在排放途径上分析其差异性及交叉过程,剖析在样品采集、前处理和仪器分析方面所需的技术手段和挑战.在生态环境效应方面综合评估了两类污染物在不同介质中产生的生态和人群健康风险、臭氧层破坏和全球暖化效应.进一步拓展利益相关方分析、生命周期分析和质量平衡分析的视角,为新污染物共排放的研究和管理提供建议.     

中国城市臭氧的形成机理及污染影响因素研究进展

中国城市臭氧(O3)污染问题日趋严重.O3主要来源于汽车尾气及工业排放氮氧化合物(NOx)和挥发性有机物(VOCs)光化学反应生成,少部分来自于平流层的向下传输.文章介绍了城市O3形成机理研究情况,概述了中国城市臭氧污染浓度特征及气象因子、气候变化、前体物等影响因素研究进展情况,并对未来研究方向进行了展望.     

Scenarios of large mammal loss in Europe for the 21st century

Distributions and populations of large mammals are declining globally, leading to an increase in their extinction risk. We forecasted the distribution of extant European large mammals (17 carnivores and 10 ungulates) based on 2 Rio+20 scenarios of socioeconomic development: business as usual and reduced impact through changes in human consumption of natural resources. These scenarios are linked to scenarios of land‐use change and climate change through the spatial allocation of land conversion up to 2050. We used a hierarchical framework to forecast the extent and distribution of mammal habitat based on species’ habitat preferences (as described in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List database) within a suitable climatic space fitted to the species’ current geographic range. We analyzed the geographic and taxonomic variation of habitat loss for large mammals and the potential effect of the reduced impact policy on loss mitigation. Averaging across scenarios, European large mammals were predicted to lose 10% of their habitat by 2050 (25% in the worst‐case scenario). Predicted loss was much higher for species in northwestern Europe, where habitat is expected to be lost due to climate and land‐use change. Change in human consumption patterns was predicted to substantially improve the conservation of habitat for European large mammals, but not enough to reduce extinction risk if species cannot adapt locally to climate change or disperse.     

Arctic marine mammal population status,sea ice habitat loss,and conservation recommendations for the 21st century

Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because of their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment of AMM status nor a standardized metric of sea ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each AMM species and recognized subpopulation. We also examined species diversity, the extent of human use, and temporal trends in sea ice habitat for 12 regions of the Arctic by calculating the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance from satellite data (1979–2013). Estimates of AMM abundance varied greatly in quality, and few studies were long enough for trend analysis. Of the AMM subpopulations, 78% (61 of 78) are legally harvested for subsistence purposes. Changes in sea ice phenology have been profound. In all regions except the Bering Sea, the duration of the summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased by 5–10 weeks and by >20 weeks in the Barents Sea between 1979 and 2013. In light of generally poor data, the importance of human use, and forecasted environmental changes in the 21st century, we recommend the following for effective AMM conservation: maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation.     

Fire Management,Managed Relocation,and Land Conservation Options for Long‐Lived Obligate Seeding Plants under Global Changes in Climate,Urbanization, and Fire Regime

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long‐lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire‐prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean‐type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long‐lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land‐use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land‐use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored. Manejo de Incendios, Reubicación Administrada y Opciones de Conservación de Suelo para Plantas de Vida Larga con Sembrado Obligado bajo los Cambios Globales en el Clima, la Urbanización y el Régimen de Incendios     

Institutional Responses to Climate Change: the Case of the Alaska Transportation System

Institutions managing the Alaska road,rail, airport, and marine highwaytransportation system and the pipelinecorridor are evaluated for reactions toevidence of climate change. Long-termclimate warming is not a formal criterionin the decisional process of the stateDepartment of Transportation and PublicFacilities for road and airport projects,which have a short (15–25 year) life span,but is taken into account for bridgeconstruction (50–75 year life). Short- tomid-term climate effects are considered inareas with discontinuous permafrost andaffect routing, roadbed construction, andmaintenance decisions. National standardsare amended with Alaska-specific practicesfor unique cold-weather conditions.The Federal/State Joint Pipeline Office(JPO), responsible for monitoring ofpipeline safety under the federal lease andstate grant, in 2001 developed additionalstipulations to mitigate permafrost thawingand slope instability, including a `watchlist' of 200 wobbling VSMs on theTrans-Alaska Pipeline. This action appearsmore responsive to climate change effectsthan that of any other arctic institutionstudied. It can be attributed to thespecific authority of the JPO to monitorgeotechnical conditions at present and inthe future.In general, agencies tended to adoptincremental responses to evidence ofclimate change.