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171.
172.
Ying Aiwen 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,61(1):187-191
It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m3 in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area. 相似文献
173.
Montane Meadows as Indicators of Environmental Change 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Diane M. Debinski Mark E. Jakubauskas Kelly Kindscher 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,64(1):213-225
We used a time series of satellite multispectral imagery for mapping and monitoring six classes of montane meadows arrayed along a moisture gradient (from hydric to mesic to xeric). We hypothesized that mesic meadows would support the highest species diversity of plants, birds, and butterflies because they are more moderate environments. We also hypothesized that mesic meadows would exhibit the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response across years. Field sampling in each of the meadow types was conducted for plants, birds, and butterflies in 1997 and 1998. Mesic meadows supported the highest plant species diversity, but there was no significant difference in bird or butterfly species diversity among meadow types. These data show that it may be easier to detect significant differences in more species rich taxa (e.g., plants) than taxa that are represented by fewer species (e.g., butterflies and birds). Mesic meadows also showed the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response. Given the rich biodiversity of mesic montane meadows and their sensitivity to variations in temperature and moisture, they may be important to monitor in the context of environmental change 相似文献
174.
Claudia Pahl-Wostl Christoph Schlumpf Martin Büssenschütt Andreas Schönborn Jan Burse 《Integrated Assessment》2000,1(4):267-280
Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated
assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured
by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the
problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level
of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change
decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication
of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper
concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
175.
Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and
the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical
processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm
track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent
heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding
events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall.
In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution
weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed
(modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic
variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration
using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return
period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small
detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate
change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret
strategy.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
176.
Jean-Charles Hourcade Minh Ha-Duong Arnulf Grübler Richard S.J. Tol 《Integrated Assessment》2001,2(1):31-35
This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The project aimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longer-term climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement. 相似文献
177.
T. Stuczyiński G. Demidowicz T. Deputat T. Górski S. Krasowicz J. Kuś 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,61(1):133-144
This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself. 相似文献
178.
克拉玛依市的核技术应用逐渐增多,带给人们在工作、生活等方面快捷和高效的同时,随之也带来了潜在的辐射安全隐患,辐射风险由此增加。本文探讨了在辐射环境管理中监管执法面临的实际问题和解决问题的思路。强调了监管的重要性。 相似文献
179.
Nathan L. Engle 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2012,48(6):1139-1150
Abstract: It is critical to understand the ability of water management to prepare for and respond to the likely increasing duration, frequency, and intensity of droughts brought about by climate variability and change. This article evaluates this ability, or adaptive capacity, within large urban community water systems (CWSs) in Arizona and Georgia. It analyzes interview data on the bridges and barriers to adapting water management approaches in relation to extreme droughts over the past decade. This study not only finds levers for building adaptive capacity that are unique to each state but also identifies several unifying themes that cut across both cases. The interviews also show that a particular bridge or barrier, such as state regulation, is not universally beneficial or detrimental for building adaptive capacity within each state. Such knowledge is useful for improving water and drought management and for understanding how CWSs might prepare for future climate variability and change by removing the barriers and bolstering the bridges in efforts to build adaptive capacity. 相似文献
180.
In the midst of rapidly proliferating engagement efforts around climate adaptation, attention to the design and evaluation of decision support processes and products is warranted. We report on the development and evaluation of a process framework called the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process. VCAPS is a systematic approach to integrate local knowledge with scientific understanding by providing opportunities for facilitated, deliberative learning-based activities with local decision makers about climate change vulnerability and adaptation. We introduce the conceptual basis of the process in analytic-deliberation, hazard management, and vulnerability. Our evaluations from eight coastal communities where the approach was applied point to four assets of VCAPS: it promotes synthesis of local and scientific knowledge; it stimulates systems thinking and learning; it facilitates governance by producing action plans with transparent justifications; and it accommodates participant time constraints and preferences. 相似文献