热带气旋的短期气候预报检验

用非线性预报的方法，作西太平洋、南海、以及登陆我国、登陆广东热带气旋的短期气候预测，用逐日气压场作登陆广东热带气旋的时段和地段以及南海海面带气旋出现的时间的气候预测。对近3年的热带气候预报进行检验，效果较满意。     

ADJUSTMENT OF STREAM CHANNEL CAPACITY FOLLOWING DAM CLOSURE,YEGUA CREEK,TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: In Yegua Creek, a principal tributary of the Brazos River in Texas, surveys of a 19 km channel reach downstream of Somerville Dam show that channel capacity decreased by an average of 65 percent in a 34 year period following dam closure. The decrease corresponds with an approximately 85 percent reduction in annual flood peaks. Channel depth has changed the most, decreasing by an average of 61 percent. Channel width remained stable with an average decrease of only 9 percent, reflecting cohesive bank materials along with the growth of riparian vegetation resulting from increased low flows during dry summer months. Although large changes in stream channel geometry are not uncommon downstream of dams, such pronounced reductions in channel capacity could have long‐term implications for sediment delivery through the system.     

张家界气候资源的利用与保护

为了充分开发利用和保护张家界的气候资源,我们采用长期定点和短期定位相结合的方法,观测研究了张家界的气候和森林小气候特征。研究证明,张家界具有亚热带湿润季风气候区的山地气候特征,森林小气候舒适宜人,旅游气候资源和农业气候资源丰富,应大力发展旅游业和林业;保护森林植被是保护张家界气候资源的关键。     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on water resources in the Delaware River basin were determined. The study focused on two important water-resource components in the basin: (1) storage in the reservoirs that supply New York City, and (2) the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary. Current reservoir operating procedures provide for releases from the New York City reservoirs to maintain the position of the salt front in the estuary downstream from freshwater intakes and ground-water recharge zones in the Philadelphia metropolitan area. A hydrologic model of the basin was developed to simulate changes in New York City reservoir storage and the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary given changes in temperature and precipitation. Results of simulations indicated that storage depletion in the New York City reservoirs is a more likely effect of changes in temperature and precipitation than is the upstream movement of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary. In contrast, the results indicated that a rise in sea level would have a greater effect on movement of the salt front than on storage in the New York City reservoirs. The model simulations also projected that, by decreasing current mandated reservoir releases, a balance can be reached wherein the negative effects of climate change on storage in the New York City reservoirs and the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary are minimized. Finally, the results indicated that natural variability in climate is of such magnitude that its effects on water resources could overwhelm the effects of long-term trends in precipitation and temperature.     

全面提高成人高校学报质量的思考

针对全国报刊治理整顿后多数学报由内部发行转为正式学报类期刊的新情况,本文从学报业务工作的几个方面对全面提高成人高校学报(以下简称“成高学报”)办刊质量进行了较详细的论述,旨在对成高学报的办刊工作起到一些促进作用。     

The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions

Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts. Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth. The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain. Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999     

Waste management in a more unequal world: centring inequality in our waste and climate change discourse

ABSTRACT

Climate change is expected to contribute to global inequality, and exacerbate ecological risk for the world's poor. Despite recent trends within waste management academic discourse, which has begun to engage with inequality, and its underlying socio-economic and socio-political causes, discussions of inequality have so far remained absent from our investigations on climate change's impacts on waste management systems and practices. The purpose of the discussion is to call for a centring of inequality within our waste and climate discourse. I identify two main pathways for scholarly investigation, specifically, developing alternative waste management solutions for contexts in which waste management systems fail, which do not just perpetuate existing inequalities, and addressing the growing inequality in waste management technology and practice between the Global North and the Global South.     

Constructing and justifying risk and accountability after extreme events: public administration and stakeholders’ responses to a wildfire disaster

ABSTRACT

The impacts of extreme weather events, causing severe storms and wildfires, cascade across administrative borders within a country, challenging the steering capacity of governance networks at different political scales. This paper examines how accountability and risk were constructed and negotiated in the aftermath of Sweden’s largest wildfire. It draws on results from an interview study with executives of organizations and landowners involved, and an analysis of government reports about the wildfire’s cause and consequences. Although the fire was human-caused, public administrative bodies paid considerable attention to the local emergency services and their poor handling of the wildfire, caused by lack of knowledge of forest fire behavior. The study confirms many of the challenges associated with governance networks. It finds that issues about who to hold accountable, in what forum and for what issue are not fully addressed, being overwhelmed by demands for better knowledge of forest fire prevention and improved coordination and collaboration. To conclude, the paper calls for a better-informed public administration, forest sector and interrelated networks that take responsibility for their actions or lack thereof.     

Planning for cooler cities: a plan quality evaluation for Urban Heat Island consideration

ABSTRACT

City strategic plans and enabling policies provide a framework for and inform future development across multiple scales. An exemplar city strategic plan will be one based on evidence, enabled by complementary policy outcomes, and built on the knowledge of the existing landscape. This study evaluated the plan quality of eighteen metropolitan strategic plans for city members in the 100 Resilient Cities initiative. A protocol was developed containing thirty-two indicators to assess plans capacity to act as a strategic planning tool to develop, analyse and implement strategies for the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The evaluation indicated that strategies addressing the UHI are rarely included in metropolitan plans. Strategic plans showed a lack of evidence-base to inform the potential actions. Urban warming is often linked to extreme weather events anticipated under climate change, not the UHI as a systemic and increasing phenomenon. We recommend that the pathway to addressing UHI mitigation and adaptation may lie in its nexus to aspects of climate change that concurrently can serve to support liveable and resilient cities.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CHANGED CLIMATES ON HEAVY RAINFALL FREQUENCIES IN TIlE MIDWEST1

ABSTRACT: An important question posed by potential future shifts in climate relates to possible shifts in heavy rainfall events (intensity and/or frequency) used to design hydraulic structures. Heavy rain events were defined as those producing amounts having average recurrence intervals of two years or longer for a specific storm period at a given location. Estimates of such heavy rainfall shifts in the humid continental climate of the midwest were derived by using spatial and temporal analogs. Comparisons in areas of relatively warm, wet conditions were made with those having measurably cooler, drier average conditions. The spatial-temporal analogs provided comparative differences in precipitation and temperature similar to the magnitude of changes obtained from GCM estimates. Spatial analogs/analyses indicated 10 to 15 percent increases in the frequency distribution of rain events having recurrence intervals of 5 to 50 years. Two periods of notably drier and warmer conditions during the past 90 years revealed 5 to 15 percent decreases in the number of 2- to 10-year heavy rain events. The suppression percentages showed a strong tendency to increase with increasing recurrence interval from 2 to 10 years.