The Effects of Irrigation and Climate on the High Plains Aquifer: A County‐Level Econometric Analysis

The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the central area of the United States (U.S.). This region produces more than 9% of U.S. crops sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. However, these withdrawals have diminished the stock of water in the aquifer. In this paper, we investigate the aggregate county‐level effect on the HPA of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, of climate variables, and of energy price changes. We merge economic theory and hydrological characteristics to jointly estimate equations describing irrigation behavior and a generalized water balance equation for the HPA. Our simple water balance model predicts, at average values for irrigation and precipitation, an HPA‐wide average decrease in the groundwater table of 0.47 feet per year, compared to 0.48 feet per year observed on average across the HPA during this 1985–2005 period. The observed distribution and predicted change across counties is in the (?3.22, 1.59) and (?2.24, 0.60) feet per year range, respectively. The estimated impact of irrigation is to decrease the water table by an average of 1.24 feet per year, whereas rainfall recharges the level by an average of 0.76 feet per year. Relative to the past several decades, if groundwater use is unconstrained, groundwater depletion would increase 50% in a scenario where precipitation falls by 25% and the number of degree days above 36°C doubles. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Changes in Hydrology of the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh and Corresponding Impacts on Water Resources

The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh is an example of water‐related catastrophes in a major rural river basin where limitations in quantity, quality, and timing of available water are producing disastrous conditions. Water availability limitations are modifying the hydrologic characteristics especially when water allocation is controlled from the upstream Farakka Barrage. This study presents the changes and consequences in the hydrologic regime due to climate‐ and human‐induced stresses. Flow duration curves (FDCs), rainfall elasticity, and temperature sensitivity were used to assess the pre‐ and post‐barrage water flow patterns. Hydrologic and climate indices were computed to provide insight on hydro‐climatic variability and trend. Significant increases in temperature, evapotranspiration, hot days, heating, and cooling degree days indicate the region is heading toward a warmer climate. Moreover, increase in high‐intensity rainfall of short duration is making the region prone to extreme floods. FDCs depict a large reduction in river flows between pre‐ and post‐barrage periods, resulting in lower water storage capacity. The reduction in freshwater flow increased the extent and intensity of salinity intrusion. This freshwater scarcity is reducing livelihood options considerably and indirectly forcing population migration from the delta region. Understanding the causes and directions of hydrologic changes is essential to formulate improve water resources management in the region.     

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed,Agricultural Watershed

Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.     

Modeling Hydrological and Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Urbanization in the Boise River Watershed,Idaho

The potential impacts driven by climate variability and urbanization in the Boise River Watershed (BRW), located in southwestern Idaho, are evaluated. The outcomes from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and land use and land cover (LULC) analysis have been incorporated into a hydrological and environmental modeling framework to characterize how climate variability and urbanization can affect the local hydrology and environment at the BRW. The combined impacts of future climate and LULC change are also evaluated relative to the historical baseline conditions. For modeling exercises, Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) is used in parallel computing and statistical techniques, including spatial downscaling and bias correlation, are employed to evaluate climate consequences derived from GCMs as well. The implications of climate variability and land use change driven by urbanization are then observed to evaluate how these overall global challenges can affect water quantity and quality conditions at the BRW. The results show the combined impacts of both climate change and urbanization can lead to more seasonal variability of streamflow (from ?27.5% to 12.5%) and water quality, including sediment (from ?36.5% to 49.3%), nitrogen (from ?24% to 124.2%), and phosphorus (from ?13.3% to 21.2%) during summer and early fall over the next several decades.     

中国西南喀斯特森林土壤有机碳空间变化及影响因素

喀斯特地区土壤碳储量及其影响因素的认识是评估我国陆地土壤生态系统碳汇能力不可或缺的内容。本文通过对中国西南北起秦岭北坡南至中越边境一条剖面上土壤有机碳的分析,研究了喀斯特森林0~10cm土壤有机碳空间变化及其控制因素。研究发现西南地区土壤有机碳含量和碳密度平均为32.3 g/kg和33.1t/hm2。无论是在整个西南区还是其省市范围内,二者均低于非喀斯特森林土壤。通径分析表明,影响喀斯特表层土壤碳含量和密度的主要因素有土壤容重、地形海拔和有机质C/N;粘粒含量和年平均气温的影响很小,而降水量仅在地处最北部的陕西省构成了土壤碳密度的影响因素。此现象与世界许多地区特别是高纬度地区形成鲜明对比。本研究结果表明,不同区域/气候带土壤碳库的主要影响因素会存在很大差异,这对认识气候变化背景下土壤碳库的反馈作用具有重要意义。     

Climate Sensitivity of Phosphorus Loadings to an Urban Stream

We investigate the sensitivity of phosphorus loading (mass/time) in an urban stream to variations in climate using nondimensional sensitivity, known as elasticity, methods commonly used by economists and hydrologists. Previous analyses have used bivariate elasticity methods to represent the general relationship between nutrient loading and a variable of interest, but such bivariate relations cannot reflect the complex multivariate nonlinear relationships inherent among nutrients, precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. Using fixed‐effect multivariate regression methods, we obtain two phosphorus models (nonparametric and parametric) for an urban stream with high explanatory power that can both estimate phosphorus loads and the elasticity of phosphorus loading to changes in precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. A case study demonstrates total phosphorus loading depends significantly on season, rainfall, combined sewer overflow events, and flow rate, yet the elasticity of total phosphorus to all these factors remains relatively constant throughout the year. The elasticity estimates reported here can be used to examine how nutrient loads may change under future climate conditions.     

Local governance of greenhouse gas emissions from air travel

Global greenhouse gas emissions from air travel (GHG-A) are on the rise, and projections point towards a rapid growth in the coming decades. This study aims to examine how local government (cities), addresses GHG-A in their Sustainable Energy Action Plans (SEAP). To fulfil this aim, over 200 SEAPs were analysed focusing on three issues: (1) Treatment of GHG-A in local emissions inventories; (2) Policy initiatives within this domain; and (3) The cities’ perceptions of the conflicts of interests. Results showed that more than half of the cities acknowledge the challenge of GHG-A, around one third include GHG-A in their emissions inventories, and more than one quarter have initiated policy interventions. To categorise these interventions, we have added a mode ‘governing by agenda setting’ to an existing analytical framework, ‘Modes of governing’. With their authority limited to the local setting, this mode of governing is a common channel for cities to push changes at higher levels.     

“We can keep the fire burning”: building action competence through environmental justice education in Uganda and Germany

The global dimensions of climate change necessitate a response that takes national differences – social, economic, geographic, and cultural – into account. Action-oriented education has a key role to play in advancing citizen engagement in a culture of sustainability. This paper describes research conducted with one such education programme, Youth Leading Environmental Change (YLEC), which operates in six countries and engages university-aged youth in discussion and practice related to global sustainability, systems thinking, and environmental justice. YLEC aims to advance four key competencies; this paper focuses on the goal of action competence, which involves acquiring knowledge, reflecting on experience in the context of one’s values, envisioning alternative futures, and acting individually and collectively to advance those alternatives. The present article examines the impacts of YLEC on environmental action competence in two of the countries involved in this research: Uganda and Germany. In-depth interviews were conducted with participants in both countries to examine the development of action competence during and after the programme. Findings suggest that outcomes differed in each country, reflective of participants’ different lived experiences. YLEC effectively built on the conditions faced in each country to accompany youth to a higher level of awareness and action. These findings have implications for environmental education programmes striving to work with multiple nations and diverse participants.     

Engagement with climate change and the environment: a review of the role of relationships to place

A growing body of literature examines how human bonds with place influence engagement with climate change and other environmental issues. Yet, studies in this vein derive from a number of disconnected literatures with a variety of place concepts employed. We set out to assess the current state of knowledge in this field and provide a framework for analysing dimensions of relations to place and their links with environmental engagement. We systematically analysed the characteristics of 66 studies identified for: focus of research, location, methods, and findings, particularly whether relationships to place aided in environmental engagement. We also categorised the studies according to our dimensions of place relations framework, cultural and environmental contexts, and intensity of climate impacts experienced. The answer to our guiding research question – whether place attachment was an effective way to communicate with people about climate change and get them actively engaged with it – was yes (74.2%), but with considerable variation according to these characteristics and dimensions. Based on this analysis, we identify gaps in current research and suggest critical paths for future research, especially in terms of geography and demography because of their implications for justice and equity in the processes of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Needed future research includes studies of place relations in regards to climate change specifically, studies in the Global South, of minority populations, beyond rural areas, and qualitative or mixed-method studies able to draw out the complexities of relations to place.