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151.
There is a profound debate over how to assign greenhouse gas (GHG) responsibilities; therefore, we have decided to follow IPCC guidelines, as they offer the only standardized method. We have identified each type of greenhouse emission and its level of absorption. We have studied the province and its districts and municipalities. We have determined that the energy sector is that with the highest level of emissions, even if the per capita emissions of the Province of Siena are very low. This is caused by a very low level of industrialization and the presence of a local geothermal production of energy. In order to highlight this aspect, we have considered scenarios both with and without geothermal production. Our research was then focused on single districts (groups of homogenous municipalities) and municipalities, where we found great differences among the greenhouse emissions of the areas. We have constructed a map of the greenhouse emissions of the whole province. It has been interesting to note that there are 14 municipalities with net negative emissions, seven with low positive emissions, 12 with medium positive emissions and three with elevated positive emissions. These latter correspond to the main city and to two of the most industrialized municipalities. 相似文献
152.
Ungtae Kim Jagath J. Kaluarachchi Vladimir U. Smakhtin 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2008,44(5):1231-1247
Abstract: This work develops a methodology to project the future precipitation in large river basins under limited data and climate change while preserving the historical temporal and spatial characteristics. The computationally simple and reliable conditional generation method (CGM) is presented and applied to generate reliable monthly precipitation data in the upper Blue Nile River Basin of Ethiopia where rain‐fed agriculture is prevalent. The results showed that the temporal analysis with the CGM performs better to reproduce the historical long‐term characteristics than other methods, and the spatial analysis with the CGM reproduced the historical spatial structure accurately. A 100‐year time series analysis using the outcomes of the six general circulation models showed that precipitation changes by the 2050s (2040 through 2069) can be ?7 to 28% with a mean increase of about 11%. The seasonal results showed increasing wet conditions in all seasons with changes of mean precipitation of 5, 47, and 6% for wet, dry, and mild seasons, respectively. 相似文献
153.
Wayne Turnberg Author Vitae William Daniell Author Vitae 《Journal of Safety Research》2008,39(6):563-568
Problem
Psychometrically validated measurement tools are needed to evaluate an organization's safety climate. In 2000, Gershon and colleagues published a new healthcare safety climate measurement tool to determine its relationship to safe work behavior (Gershon, R., Karkashian, C., Grosch, J., Murphy, L., Escamilla-Cejudo, A., Flanagan, P., et al. (2000). Hospital safety climate and its relationship with safe work practices and workplace exposure incidents. American Journal of Infection Control, 28, 211-21). The present study evaluated the psychometric properties of the Gershon tool when modified to address respiratory rather than bloodborne pathogen exposures.Method
Medical practitioners, nurses, and nurse aides (n = 460) were surveyed using the modified Gershon tool. Data were analyzed by factor analysis and psychometric properties of the tool evaluated.Results
Eight safety climate dimensions were extracted from 25 items (Cronbach's alpha range: 0.62 - 0.88). Factor extractions and psychometric properties were reasonably consistent with those of the Gershon tool.Impact on Industry
The Gershon safety climate tool appears to have sufficient reliability and validity for use by healthcare decision makers as an indicator of employee perceptions of safety in their institution. 相似文献154.
Safety climate measurement at workplace in China: A validity and reliability assessment 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Si-Hao Lin Wen-Juan Tang Jian-Ying Miao Zhi-Ming Wang Pei-Xi Wang 《Safety Science》2008,46(7):1037-1046
155.
156.
Ying Aiwen 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,61(1):187-191
It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m3 in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area. 相似文献
157.
Montane Meadows as Indicators of Environmental Change 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Diane M. Debinski Mark E. Jakubauskas Kelly Kindscher 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,64(1):213-225
We used a time series of satellite multispectral imagery for mapping and monitoring six classes of montane meadows arrayed along a moisture gradient (from hydric to mesic to xeric). We hypothesized that mesic meadows would support the highest species diversity of plants, birds, and butterflies because they are more moderate environments. We also hypothesized that mesic meadows would exhibit the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response across years. Field sampling in each of the meadow types was conducted for plants, birds, and butterflies in 1997 and 1998. Mesic meadows supported the highest plant species diversity, but there was no significant difference in bird or butterfly species diversity among meadow types. These data show that it may be easier to detect significant differences in more species rich taxa (e.g., plants) than taxa that are represented by fewer species (e.g., butterflies and birds). Mesic meadows also showed the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response. Given the rich biodiversity of mesic montane meadows and their sensitivity to variations in temperature and moisture, they may be important to monitor in the context of environmental change 相似文献
158.
Claudia Pahl-Wostl Christoph Schlumpf Martin Büssenschütt Andreas Schönborn Jan Burse 《Integrated Assessment》2000,1(4):267-280
Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated
assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured
by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the
problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level
of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change
decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication
of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper
concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
159.
Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and
the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical
processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm
track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent
heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding
events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall.
In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution
weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed
(modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic
variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration
using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return
period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small
detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate
change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret
strategy.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
160.
Jean-Charles Hourcade Minh Ha-Duong Arnulf Grübler Richard S.J. Tol 《Integrated Assessment》2001,2(1):31-35
This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The project aimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longer-term climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement. 相似文献