基于视频数据的城市隧道交通运行特征与安全研究

为降低城市隧道交通事故率,提高车辆出行安全,以上海市翔殷路跨江隧道为研究对象,利用视频采集技术、车辆跟踪调查采集隧道交通运行数据,分析城市隧道交通运行特征及驾驶员在隧道内驾驶行为特征,并进一步研究其与隧道交通事故的关系。对隧道内车辆的速度、密度分布,变道行为进行分析,发现隧道南线入口处内外断面平均车速的显著差异可以解释该处追尾事故高发,隧道内车辆频繁变换车道导致隧道侧碰事故占较大比例。为改善城市隧道交通安全,在隧道内进行限速和限制车辆变道是必要的。     

Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin1

Mehta, Vikram M., Norman J. Rosenberg, and Katherin Mendoza, 2011. Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):126‐135. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00496.x Abstract: The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in the United States (U.S.), and is one of the most important crop and livestock‐producing regions in the world. In a previous study of associations between decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and hydro‐meteorological (HM) variability in the MRB, it was found that positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperature gradient variability (TAG), and the west Pacific warm pool (WPWP) temperature variability were significantly associated with decadal variability in precipitation and 2‐meter air temperature in the MRB, with combinations of various phases of these DCV phenomena associated with drought, flood, or neutral HM conditions. Here, we report on a methodology developed and applied to assess whether the aforementioned DCVs directly affect the hydrology of the MRB. The Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S. (HUMUS) was used to simulate water yields in response to realistic values of the PDO, TAG, and WPWP at 75 widely distributed, eight‐digit hydrologic unit areas within the MRB. HUMUS driven by HM anomalies in both the positive and negative phases of the PDO and TAG resulted in major impacts on water yields, as much as ±20% of average water yield in some locations. Impacts of the WPWP were smaller. The combined and cumulative effects of these DCV phenomena on the MRB HM and water availability can be dramatic with important consequences for the MRB.     

Alaska’s Freshwater Resources: Issues Affecting Local and International Interests1

Alessa, Lilian, Mark Altaweel, Andrew Kliskey, Christopher Bone, William Schnabel, and Kalb Stevenson, 2011. Alaska’s Freshwater Resources: Issues Affecting Local and International Interests. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):143‐157. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00498.x Abstract: The State of Alaska faces a broad range of freshwater challenges including limited resource access in rural communities, increasing freshwater use, and a pressing need to better understand and prepare for climate‐driven change. Despite these significant issues, Alaska is relatively water‐rich and far more equipped to address its water resource concerns compared with other regions of the world. Globally, simultaneous and rapid water stresses have influenced and complicated conflicts and are motivating nations to develop markets and trade as one of the primary means to manage their needs for this resource. This paper presents these interacting issues in the context of Alaska’s relationship with a world undergoing significant social and ecological changes that affect freshwater supplies. We present the challenges faced by Alaska in the context of a larger global perspective, and briefly explore the relative effects these issues have on local, regional, and global scales. We present the argument that Alaska needs to develop more robust institutions and policies that can alleviate both household concerns and ensure that Alaska plays a significant role in the international freshwater arena for its long‐term resilience.     

The Sensitivity of Northern Groundwater Recharge to Climate Change: A Case Study in Northwest Alaska1

Clilverd, Hannah M., Daniel M. White, Amy C. Tidwell, and Michael A. Rawlins, 2011. The Sensitivity of Northern Groundwater Recharge to Climate Change: A Case Study in Northwest Alaska. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1228–1240. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00569.x Abstract: The potential impacts of climate change on northern groundwater supplies were examined at a fractured‐marble mountain aquifer near Nome, Alaska. Well water surface elevations (WSE) were monitored from 2004‐2009 and analyzed with local meteorological data. Future aquifer response was simulated with the Pan‐Arctic Water Balance Model (PWBM) using forcings (air temperature and precipitation) derived from fifth‐generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global circulation model climate scenarios for extreme and modest increases in greenhouse gases. We observed changes in WSE due to the onset of spring snowmelt, low intensity and high intensity rainfall events, and aquifer head recession during the winter freeze period. Observed WSE and snow depth compared well with PWBM‐simulated groundwater recharge and snow storage. Using ECHAM5‐simulated increases in mean annual temperature of 4‐8°C by 2099, the PWBM predicted that by 2099 later freeze‐up and earlier snowmelt will decrease seasonal snow cover by one to two months. Annual evapotranspiration and precipitation are predicted to increase 27‐40% (55‐81 mm) and 33‐42% (81‐102 mm), respectively, with the proportion of snowfall in annual precipitation decreasing on average 9‐25% (p < 0.05). The amount of snowmelt is not predicted to change significantly by 2099; however, a decreasing trend is evident from 2060 in the extreme ECHAM5 greenhouse gas scenario. Increases in effective precipitation were predicted to be great enough to sustain sufficient groundwater recharge.     

Hydropower Relicensing and Climate Change1

Viers, Joshua H., 2011. Hydropower Relicensing and Climate Change. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):655‐661. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00531.x Abstract: Hydropower represents approximately 20% of the world’s energy supply, is viewed as both vulnerable to global climate warming and an asset to reduce climate‐altering emissions, and is increasingly the target of improved regulation to meet multiple ecosystem service benefits. It is within this context that the recent decision by the United States Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to reject studies of climate change in its consideration of reoperation of the Yuba‐Bear Drum‐Spaulding hydroelectric facilities in northern California is shown to be poorly reasoned and risky. Given the rapidity of climate warming, and its anticipated impacts to natural and human communities, future long‐term fixed licenses of hydropower operation will be ill prepared to adapt if science‐based approaches to incorporating reasonable and foreseeable hydrologic changes into study plans are not included. The licensing of hydroelectricity generation can no longer be issued in isolation due to downstream contingencies such as domestic water use, irrigated agricultural production, ecosystem maintenance, and general socioeconomic well‐being. At minimum, if the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is to establish conditions of operation for 30‐50 years, licensees should be required to anticipate changing climatic and hydrologic conditions for a similar period of time.     

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004–08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.     

模拟升温和放牧对高寒草甸土壤微生物群落的影响

通过开顶式温室(Open top chambers,OTCs)升温以及刈割+施加牛粪处理,应用磷脂脂肪酸(Phospholipid fatty acids,PLFAs)方法,研究了青藏高原东部高寒草甸土壤微生物群落结构对气候变暖和放牧的响应.结果表明,高寒草甸在生长季节,微生物群落以细菌为主.平均1.17℃的土壤升温使土壤微生物PLFAs总量增加34.58%,而春季割草结合牛粪施加使微生物PLFAs总量增加65.77%.模拟变暖和放牧均引起土壤微生物群落结构的显著变化.升温使细菌相对含量增加8.80%,而使真菌相对含量降低17.48%,细菌与真菌之比由7.3变为9.6.放牧使细菌相对含量增加8.40%,真菌相对含量降低14.04%,细菌与真菌之比由7.3变为9.2.OTCs升温+放牧处理比单独的升温或放牧处理对土壤微生物总量和细菌与真菌比值的影响更加明显.本研究表明,气候变暖和人类活动能够在短期内显著地改变青藏高原高寒草甸土壤微生物群落结构,进而可能影响这一地区的生态系统碳收支和养分循环.     

土壤有机质对宁夏农业综合开发活动的响应

为深入分析宁夏农业综合开发活动对土壤有机质的影响,认识其对气候变化的适应意义,分别于北部平原灌区、中部干旱带和南部黄土丘陵区的3个农发项目典型示范点,选取典型用地、玉米地、未利用地3种土地利用类型,分析表层10～20 cm土壤有机质的变化规律。研究发现,生态区和土地利用类型是影响土壤有机质的重要因素,并存在极显著的交互作用。研究区土壤有机质在4.53～14.70 g·kg-1范围内变化,典型用地有显著改善,平均质量分数达10.40 g·kg-1。限定生态区条件下,北部平原灌区无论水稻还是玉米利用方式下,土壤有机质含量相对未利用地都出现显著提升,但是南部黄土丘陵区3种土地利用类型间并无显著差异,中部干旱带只有甘草地土壤有机质含量显著提升,幅度高达145%。限定土地利用类型条件下,3个生态区间典型用地土壤有机质出现显著差异,但是北部平原灌区和南部黄土丘陵区间未利用地以及玉米地表层土壤有机质差异并不显著。研究区农业综合开发活动对土壤有机质储存的作用以正效应为主,但是不同农业土地利用类型在不同生态区对土壤有机质的作用不尽相同。宁夏农业综合开发活动需要综合考虑生态区水土资源特征,选取适宜的农业土地利用类型,有效提升土壤有机质含量,积极应对气候变化。     

城市化对土壤呼吸作用影响的研究进展

土壤呼吸是指土壤产生CO2的所有代谢作用,是碳素由陆地生态系统进入大气的主要途径和大气CO：的重要来源,是影响全球碳循环的途径之一,它的变化可能会对大气CO2浓度产生显著的影响。城市化的推进引起世界范围内土地利用／覆盖方式的变化,这种变化对土壤的理化性质、生物学特性等产生深刻影响,从而影响土壤的呼吸作用。因此,研究城市化引起的土壤呼吸变化对于精确地估测陆地碳循环有着重要意义。国外在20世纪90年代就开始了城乡梯度上土壤碳动态的研究,而我国在这这方面的研究还处在起步阶段,尤其是关于由自然土壤转变为城市土壤后,土壤呼吸变化的机制研究较少。已有的研究表明,在干旱和半干旱地区,城市化引起土壤呼吸降低,而非干旱区则相反。此外,城市化过程中,土壤呼吸变化的方向和强度因所处的气候区域、利用的土地来源、城市内部的土地利用方式及植被类型的不同等而存在差异,但仍存在许多不确定的影响因素,如与气候变化的耦合作用等。因此,在未来城市化过程对土壤呼吸作用的研究中,应加强土壤呼吸作用的直接影响因子和间接影响因子、时空差异及其他更精细的研究。     

公路隧道集中排烟系统流速分布规律数值模拟研究

采用火灾动态模拟软件FDS,对独立排烟道集中排烟模式在火灾条件下的排烟情况进行模拟计算,分别研究了集中排烟中双向排烟方式和单向排烟方式下不同排烟阀设置方案工况的排烟道流速和排烟阀流速分布规律.结果表明,双向排烟方式下,排烟阀流速与排烟道流速呈对称分布;单向排烟方式下,排烟阀流速与排烟道流速呈非对称分布;当排烟道横截面面...