RESPONSE OF NORTH AMERICAN FRESHWATER LAKES TO SIMULATED FUTURE CLIMATES1

ABSTRACT: We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO₂ doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30°C over the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.     

GREAT LAKES WATER RESOURCES: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ANALYSIS WITH TRANSIENT GCM SCENARIOS1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers conducted an assessment of Great Lakes water resources impacts under transient climate change scenarios. The integrated model linked empirical regional climate downscaling, hydrologic and hydraulic models, and water resource use sub-models. The water resource uses include hydropower, navigation, shoreline damages, and wetland area. The study is unique in that both steady-state 2°CO₂ and transient global circulation model (GCM) scenarios were used and compared to each other. The results are consistent with other impact studies in that high scatter in regional climate among the GCM scenarios lead to high uncertainty in impacts. Nevertheless, the transient scenarios show that in the near-term (approximately 20 years) significant changes could occur. This result only adds to the urgency of creating more flexible and robust management of water resources uses.     

千岛湖流域旅游开发项目的气候评价

根据千岛湖流域的气候特点,对夏季避暑度假旅游、休闲观光农业和季节性旅游项目的开发进行了气候评估,将有利于促进千岛湖流域旅游业的发展     

亚热带丘岗区雨养水稻初探

亚热带丘岗区降水丰沛 ,全年降水总量大于蒸发量。以试区为例 ,平均年降水量是蒸发量的1.32倍 ,每年 4～ 7月下旬降水在时间上的分布较为均匀 ,降水频数大 ,8～ 10月底 ,则会出现水分亏缺 ,降水频数少 ,时间上分布不匀。对于第一季水稻的生产 ,耕灌雨养 (天灌 )与传统的灌溉方式在产量形成方面没有多大的差异 ,最大减产率仅为传统灌溉方式总产量的 6.68% ,晚稻则会造成大量减产 ,减产率达 2 0 .98%。因此 ,考虑到在广大的亚热带丘岗区水分调蓄的特殊性 ,可针对区域内具体的水分条件适时插秧 ,充分利用天然降水完成第一季水稻的生产 ,第二季则可种植旱地作物以避开季节性干旱 ,这样既可以缓解水资源紧缺的矛盾 ,又可以节约因水稻灌溉带来的大量人力、物力和财力。     

锡林郭勒盟植被物候枯黄期对干湿变化的时间多尺度响应

基于全球监测与建模组(GIMMS)1982～2015年第三代归一化植被指数(NDVI)GIMMS NDVI 3g数据集和气象观测数据,采用累计NDVI的Logistic曲线曲率极值法提取锡林郭勒草原植被枯黄期,并结合不同时间尺度标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)分析植被枯黄期对干湿变化的响应特征.结果表明:1982～201...     

Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species’ ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.     

Effects of Amazonian flying rivers on frog biodiversity and populations in the Atlantic rainforest

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.     

氮肥品种及施肥方式对小白菜产量与品质的影响

氮肥在农业生产中起着重要的作用,但是氮肥的大量施用不仅造成养分比例失调及环境污染,而且会限制产量的提高和品质的改善。针对广东蔬菜氮肥施用不合理的现象,在田间试验条件下研究了不同氮肥品种和不同底追比对小白菜产量和营养品质的影响,旨在为华南地区的蔬菜施用氮肥提供参考。试验结果表明,施氮极显著提高了小白菜的生物量和产量,亦增加了硝酸盐的累积量,其中尿素处理增产效果最好,蔬菜专用肥(磷铵 尿素)处理小白菜硝酸盐累积量最低,其次是碳酸氢铵和氯化铵处理。各氮肥处理间Vc和可溶性糖含量差异达到极显著水平,其中蔬菜专用肥处理含量最高;不同底、追肥处理间产量和Vc含量的差异达到显著或极显著水平,而可溶性糖含量差异未达到显著水平。除底肥70%、追肥30%的处理外,其余处理均极显著提高了硝酸盐含量。在本试验条件下,蔬菜专用肥既可以提高小白菜产量,又可以明显改善小白菜营养品质与卫生品质,如果以尿素为氮源,底肥70%、追肥30%是兼顾产量和品质的优化处理。     

有机肥与无机肥配施对潮土N2O排放的影响

华北平原是我国重要的粮食主产区,由于土壤有机质含量低,增加氮肥用量并不能导致玉米产量持续增加.有机肥和无机肥配施被广泛认为是同时实现粮食增产和提高土壤有机质的双赢措施,但是有机肥和无机肥配施对华北平原农田N_2O排放的影响尚不明确.本研究在华北平原潮土区,通过测定不同种类有机肥与无机肥配施后农田N_2O排放通量和作物产量,旨在揭示不同种类有机肥及其用量对潮土N_2O排放和作物产量的影响效应.田间试验共设置8个处理,分别为不施肥(CK)、化肥氮(NPK)、 40%牛粪氮+60%化肥氮(CM)、 40%鸡粪氮+60%化肥氮(FC)、 40%猪粪氮+60%化肥氮(FP)、 20%牛粪氮+80%化肥氮(1/2CM)、 20%鸡粪氮+80%化肥氮(1/2FC)和20%猪粪氮+80%化肥氮(1/2FP).整个玉米季N_2O排放通量均与土壤WFPS显著正相关(P0.05).除NPK处理外,玉米季N_2O排放量与土壤可溶性有机碳(DOC)平均含量存在显著的线性关系.玉米季CK处理N_2O排放量为0.50 kg·hm~(-2),NPK处理增加到2.28 kg·hm~(-2).相同用量不同种类有机肥处理,N_2O排放未出现显著差异. 40%有机肥氮用量处理下N_2O排放量与NPK处理无显著差异,而用量减少至20%后, 1/2CM、 1/2FC和1/2FP处理N_2O排放量分别较CM、 FC和FP减少了33.6%、 43.7%和12.1%,其主要原因为易分解有机碳输入减少,土壤DOC含量降低,但玉米产量未出现显著差异.因此,从减少温室效应的角度,玉米季80%化肥氮配施20%有机肥氮为本地区农田施肥的较佳选择.     

The GANE Roof Project: The impact of reduced N & S deposition and experimental warming in an acid grassland

A field-based system used to quantify the response of acid grassland to reduced atmospheric nitrogen and sulphur deposition, and to investigate the effects of elevated soil temperature on acid grassland development is described. The system is based on 12 retractable roofs, covering undisturbed experimental plots of acid grassland and three controls. Nine roofs are used to exclude natural precipitation and three roofs used to retain emitted IR radiation at night. An irrigation system has been developed to simulate natural precipitation, allowing for the application of specific treatment regimes of ambient, reduced nitrogen and reduced nitrogen/sulphur deposition beneath the nine rain exclusion plots. Plant, soil parameters, leachate chemistry and gaseous fluxes are being monitored and initial results on soil water chemistry are described. Warming appeared to enhance nitrate concentrations in soil water but this was not sustained beyond the first year of treatment. In contrast, the deposition reduction treatments decreased soil water nitrate concentrations within a few weeks of reducing deposition. This was not observed for other solutes such as sulphate or ammonium suggesting a more direct link between deposition of nitrate and leaching losses.