Drivers of future streamflow changes in watersheds across the Northeastern United States

Accurate projections of streamflow, which have implications for flooding, water resources, hydropower, and ecosystems, are critical to climate change adaptation and require an understanding of streamflow sensitivity to climate drivers. The northeastern United States has experienced a dramatic increase in extreme precipitation over the past 25 years; however, the effects of these changes, as well as changes in other drivers of streamflow, remain unclear. Here, we use a random forest model forced with a regional climate model to examine historical and future streamflow dynamics of four watersheds across the Northeast. We find that streamflow in the cold season (November–May) is primarily driven by 3-day rainfall and antecedent wetness (Antecedent Precipitation Index) in three rainfall-dominant watersheds, and 30-day rainfall, antecedent wetness, and 30-day snowmelt in the fourth, more snowmelt-dominated watershed. In the warm season (June–October), streamflow is driven by antecedent wetness and rainfall in all watersheds. By the end of the century (2070–2099), cold season streamflow depends on the importance placed on snow in the machine learning model, with changes ranging from −7% (with snow) to +40% (without snow) in a single watershed. Simulated future warm season streamflow increases in two watersheds (56% and 193%) due to increased precipitation and antecedent soil wetness, but decreases in the other two watersheds (−6% and −27%) due to reduced precipitation.     

Examining the interpersonal process and consequence of leader–member exchange comparison: The role of procedural justice climate

Individuals are always sensitive to their relative standing in interpersonal comparison processes of leader–member exchanges (LMXs) in teams. Little research, however, has investigated whether coworkers with a higher LMX influence the emotional and behavioral reactions of individuals with a lower LMX in different dyads. Drawing on social comparison theory and the symbolic model of procedural justice (PJ) climate, we conducted 2 independent studies—an experimental study focusing on the self‐perceived upward LMX comparison (i.e., an individual perceives that a coworker's LMX is higher than the LMX that he or she has with the supervisor; N = 203; Study 1: American working adults) and a field survey study focusing on the other‐perceived downward LMX comparison (i.e., a coworker perceives that his or her own LMX is higher than the LMX that the individual has with the supervisor; N = 177; Study 2: Chinese software engineers). Results from these studies consistently revealed that a coworker's higher LMX elicits an individual's hostile emotions when the PJ climate is low but that this relationship is buffered when the PJ climate is high. Results of both studies also showed that the coworker's higher LMX arouses the individual to direct harmful behavior toward that coworker (via the individual's feelings of hostility) when the PJ climate is low but not when it is high.     

Divergent Perspectives on Expert Disagreement: Preliminary Evidence from Climate Science,Climate Policy,Astrophysics, and Public Opinion

We report the results of an exploratory study that examines the judgments of climate scientists, climate policy experts, astrophysicists, and non-experts (N?=?3367) about the factors that contribute to the creation and persistence of disagreement within climate science and astrophysics and about how one should respond to expert disagreement. We found that, as compared to non-experts, climate experts believe that within climate science (i) there is less disagreement about climate change, (ii) methodological factors play less of a role in generating disagreements, (iii) fewer personal or institutional biases influence climate research, and (iv) there is more agreement about which methods should be used to examine relevant phenomena we also observed that the uniquely American political context predicted experts’ judgments about some of these factors. We also found that, in regard to disagreements concerning cosmic ray physics, and commensurate with the greater inherent uncertainty and data lacunae in their field, astrophysicists working on cosmic rays were generally more willing to acknowledge expert disagreement, more open to the idea that a set of data can have multiple valid interpretations, and generally less quick to dismiss someone articulating a non-standard view as non-expert, than climate scientists were in regard to climate science.     

Foreign,Domestic, and Cultural Factors in Climate Change Reporting: Swedish Media’s Coverage of Wildfires in Three Continents

This study examines domestic media’s coverage of foreign wildfires from a climate change perspective. It explores Swedish newspapers’ coverage of wildfires in Australia, the Mediterranean region, and the USA during a three-year period (February 2013–March 2016), focusing on how and to what extent climate change is viewed as an underlying cause. A central result is that climate change is mentioned far more often in the case of Australian wildfires than of fires in the other two regions. Another finding is that the climate change issue became more prominent after a severe domestic wildfire in 2014. These observations are also examined qualitatively through a combined frame and discourse study where the importance of foreign news values, the use of foreign sources, cultural proximity/distance, and domestication procedures are analysed. In conclusion, foreign, domestic, and cultural factors in climate change reporting in relation to extreme events are further discussed.     

Consumption-based emissions accounting: the normative debate

ABSTRACT

The normative debate surrounding consumption-based emissions accounting, conceived of as a method for constructing national emissions inventories, is investigated. The focus is to examine whether such accounting would be more just than the current method of production-based accounting. It is argued that there is no good reason to think that consumption-based accounting would be less just, and some reason to think that it would be more just. The consequences of this for the overall question of whether to adopt consumption-based accounting are also investigated.     

Climate Services and Communication for Development: The Role of Early Career Researchers in Advancing the Debate

Climate services entail providing timely and tailored climate information to end-users in order to facilitate and improve decision-making processes. Climate services are instrumental in socio-economic development and benefit substantially from interdisciplinary collaborations, particularly when including Early Career Researchers (ECRs). This commentary critically discusses deliberations from an interdisciplinary workshop involving ECRs from the United Kingdom and South Africa in 2017, to discuss issues in climate adaptation and climate services development in water resources, food security and agriculture. Outcomes from the discussions revolved around key issues somewhat marginalized within the broader climate service discourse. This commentary discusses what constitutes “effective” communication, framings (user framings, mental models, narratives, co-production) and ethical dimensions in developing climate services that can best serve end-users. It also reflects on how ECRs can help tackle these important thematic areas and advance the discourse on climate services.     

基于结构方程模型的地铁乘客安全行为影响因素分析

为了研究地铁乘客安全行为的影响因素,通过对北京、上海、广州、深圳等城市的地铁乘客的多项安全指标的抽样调查,建立了关于乘客安全行为的结构方程模型,研究了影响地铁乘客安全行为的主要因素。结果表明:良好的地铁安全氛围能有效提高乘客的安全知识水平、安全动机、安全心理水平、安全参与行为水平;安全参与行为水平同时受到乘客安全知识水平和乘客接受安全培训状况的影响,其中,乘客安全知识水平的高低取决于乘客接受安全培训状况;安全服从行为则与安全动机存在较强的正相关关系;乘客的安全心理水平只跟地铁安全氛围有关,安全氛围越好,乘客安全心理水平越高,安全知识作为中介变量同时影响着安全氛围与安全参与行为、安全培训与安全参与行为、安全氛围与安全动机以及安全培训与安全动机之间的关系,提高乘客安全知识水平是提高乘客安全行为水平的重要途径。     

Low-carbon technology innovation responding to climate change from the perspective of spatial spillover effects

China’s technological efforts to tackle climate change have lasted for many years. It is necessary to test the effect of these efforts with quantitative method. To be exact, whether and how China’s low-carbon technology innovation responds to climate change should be tested. Based on the 2004–2015 panel data of 30 provinces in China, we use the method of ESDA analyzing the spatial correlation of China’s low-carbon innovation technology. Furthermore, we use the spatial Durbin model empirically analyzing the spatial spillover effects. The results obtained are as follows: first, supply and demand of Chinese low-carbon innovation has some deviation in the spatial distribution. The low-carbon technology innovation as the supply factor shows the characteristics of expanding from the east to the west. Innovation in eastern China has always been the most active, but innovative activities in the middle and western China are gradually decreased. However, carbon emissions have the characteristics of moving westward, implying the change of technology demand different from technology supply. Second, China’s low-carbon innovation actively responds to the trend of climate change, indicating China’s technological efforts have paid off. However, the spatial spillover effects are not significant, showing that the efforts in each region of China still work for himself. Third, environmental regulation and market pull are important factors for low-carbon technology innovation. Among them, both supporting policy and inhibitory policy have significant impact on the local low-carbon technology innovation, but no significant spatial spillover effects. It shows that environmental policies in different regions are competitive and lack of demonstration effects. Economic growth and export as market pull have higher level of effect on low-carbon technology innovation for both local and adjacent areas. Some policy implications are proposed based on these results finally.     

家长式领导对高速铁路司机安全行为的影响研究

为了进一步提升高速铁路司机的安全绩效,保证高速铁路的运输安全,以高速铁路司机为研究对象,利用国内11家铁路局的调研数据,构建理论模型,实证研究家长式领导风格对安全氛围及安全行为的影响,采用回归分析和Bootstrap技术进行检验。结果表明:德行领导、仁慈领导和威权领导均对高速铁路司机的安全行为产生显著正向影响;安全氛围在家长式领导风格与安全行为之间起到部分中介作用;德行领导和仁慈领导对安全行为具有正向交互影响效应。