芜湖市城市化气候变化特征分析

运用R/S(Rescaled Range Analysis)方法,对芜湖市1953—2006年共54年间的气温、降水、相对湿度、日照等气象要素资料的年平均、冬季、夏季进行了分析计算。计算表明,各指标的Hurst指数均大于0.5,说明4个气象指标存在明显的Hurst现象,反映出芜湖市气候变化的特征与趋势,并预测了芜湖市气候未来的发展趋势,证明城市化已经对芜湖市气候变化产生了显著影响。     

A Simple Framework for Incorporating Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts into Existing Water Resource Management Practices1

Gong, Gavin, Lucien Wang, Laura Condon, Alastair Shearman, and Upmanu Lall, 2010. A Simple Framework for Incorporating Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts Into Existing Water Resource Management Practices. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):574-585. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00435.x Abstract: Climate-based streamflow forecasting, coupled with an adaptive reservoir operation policy, can potentially improve decisions by water suppliers and watershed stakeholders. However, water suppliers are often wary of straying too far from their current management practices, and prefer forecasts that can be incorporated into existing system modeling tools. This paper presents a simple framework for utilizing streamflow forecasts that works within an existing management structure. Climate predictors are used to develop seasonal inflow forecasts. These are used to specify operating rules that connect to the probability of future (end of season) reservoir states, rather than to the current storage, as is done now. By considering both current storage and anticipated inflow, the likelihood of meeting management goals can be improved. The upper Delaware River Basin in the northeastern United States is used to demonstrate the basic idea. Physically plausible climate-based forecasts of March-April reservoir inflow are developed. Existing simulation tools and rule curves for the system are used to convert the inflow forecasts to reservoir level forecasts. Operating policies are revised during the forecast period to release less water during forecasts of low reservoir level. Hindcast simulations demonstrate reductions of 1.6% in the number of drought emergency days, which is a key performance measure. Forecasts with different levels of skill are examined to explore their utility.     

Testing safety commitment in organizations through interpretations of safety artifacts

Problem

Safety culture relates to injuries and safety incidents in organizations, but is difficult to asses and measure. We describe a preliminary test of assessing an organization's safety culture by examining employee interpretations of organizational safety artifacts (safety signs).

Method

We collected data in three organizations using a new safety culture assessment tool that we label the Safety Artifact Interpretation (SAI) scale; we then crossed these data with safety climate and leadership evaluations.

Results

SAI were interpreted by employees in accordance with two conceptually distinct themes that are salient in the literature on organizational safety culture: safety compliance and commitment to safety. A significant correlation exists between SAI scores and the organizational safety climate. A similar (though insignificant) relationship was observed between SAI scores and leadership ratings.

Impact on industry

Employee perceptions and interpretations of safety artifacts can facilitate assessments of safety culture and can ultimately lead to understanding of and improvements in the level of organizational safety.     

Impacts of Climate Variability and Land Use Alterations on Frequency Distributions of Terrestrial Runoff Loading to Coastal Waters in Southern California1

Abstract: The transport of water, sediment, dissolved and particulate chemicals, and bacteria from coastal watersheds affects the nearshore marine and estuarine waters. In southern California, coastal watersheds deliver water and associated constituents to the nearshore system in discrete pulses. To better understand the pulsed nature of these watersheds, frequency distributions of simulated runoff events are presented for: (1) three land use conditions (1929, 1998, 2050); (2) three time periods (all water years 1989‐2002), only El Nino years (1992, 1993, 1995, 1998); and only non‐El Nino years; and (3) three regions (watershed, uplands, and lowlands). At the watershed scale, there was a significant increase (>200%) in mean event runoff from 1929 to 2050 (0.4‐1.3 cm) due to localized urbanization, which shifted the dominant sources of runoff from the mountains in 1929 (78% of watershed runoff) to the coastal plane for 2050 conditions (51% of watershed runoff). Inter‐annual climate variability was strong in the rainfall and runoff frequency distributions, with mean event rainfall and runoff 66 and 60% larger in El Nino relative to non‐El Nino years. Combining urbanization and climate variability, 2050 land conditions resulted in El Nino years being five times more likely to produce large (>3.0 cm) runoff events relative to non‐El Nino years. Combining frequency distributions of event runoff with regional nutrient export relationships, we show that in El Nino years, one in five events produced runoff ≥2.5 cm and temporary nearshore nitrate and phosphate concentrations of 12 and 1.4 μM, respectively, or approximately 5‐10 times above ambient conditions.     

The Potential Use of Synthetic Aperture Radar for Estimating Methane Ebullition From Arctic Lakes1

Abstract: Arctic lakes are significant emitters of methane (CH₄), a potent greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere; yet no rigorous quantification of the magnitude and variability of pan‐Arctic lake emissions exists. In this study, we demonstrate the potential for a new method using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to detect methane bubbles in lake ice to scale up whole‐lake measurements of CH₄ ebullition (bubbling) to regional scales. We estimated ebullition from lakes, which is often the dominant mode of lake emissions, by mapping the distribution of bubble clusters frozen in early winter ice across surfaces of seven tundra lakes and one boreal forest lake in Alaska. Applying previously measured ebullition rates associated with four distinct classes of bubble clusters found in lake ice, we estimated whole‐lake emissions from individual lakes. The percent surface area of lake ice covered with bubbles (R² = 0.68) and CH₄ ebullition rates from lakes (R² = 0.59) and were correlated with radar return values from RADARSAT‐1 Standard Beam mode 3 for the tundra lakes, suggesting that with appropriate scaling and consideration for variability in lake‐ice conditions, this technique has the potential to be used for estimating broader‐scale regional and pan‐Arctic lake methane emissions.     

Water‐Yield Reduction After Afforestation and Related Processes in the Semiarid Liupan Mountains,Northwest China1

Abstract: The increase of coverage of forest/vegetation is imperative to improve the environment in dry‐land areas of China, especially for protecting soil against serious erosion and sandstorms. However, inherent severe water shortages, drought stresses, and increasing water use competition greatly restrict the reforestation. Notably, the water‐yield reduction after afforestation generates intense debate about the correct approach to afforestation and forest management in dry‐land areas. However, most studies on water‐yield reduction of forests have been at catchment scales, and there are few studies of the response of total evapotranspiration (ET) and its partitioning to vegetation structure change. This motivates us to learn the linkage between hydrological processes and vegetation structure in slope ecosystems. Therefore, an ecohydrological study was carried out by measuring the individual items of water balance on sloping plots covered by different vegetation types in the semiarid Liupan Mountains of northwest China. The ratio of precipitation consumed as ET was about 60% for grassland, 93% for shrubs, and >95% for forestland. Thus, the water yield was very low, site‐specific, and sensitive to vegetation change. Conversion of grassland to forest decreased the annual water yield from slope by 50‐100 mm. In certain periods, the plantations at lower slopes even consumed the runon from upper slopes. Reducing the density of forests and shrubs by thinning was not an efficient approach to minimize water use. Leaf area index was a better indicator than plant density to relate ET to vegetation structure and to evaluate the soil water carrying capacity for vegetation (i.e., the maximum amount of vegetation that can be supported by the available soil water for an extended time). Selecting proper vegetation types and plant species, based on site soil water condition, may be more effective than the forest density regulation to minimize water‐yield reduction by vegetation coverage increase and notably by reforestation. Finally, the focuses in future research to improve the forest‐water relations in dry‐land areas are recommended as follows: vegetation growth dynamics driven by environment especially water conditions, coupling of ecological and hydrological processes, further development of distributed ecohydrological models, quantitative relation of eco‐water quota of ecosystems with vegetation structures, multi‐scaled evaluation of soil water carrying capacity for vegetation, and the development of widely applicable decision support tools.     

Impacts of Multiple Stresses on Water Demand and Supply Across the Southeastern United States1

Abstract: Assessment of long‐term impacts of projected changes in climate, population, and land use and land cover on regional water resource is critical to the sustainable development of the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to fully budget annual water availability for water supply (precipitation ? evapotranspiration + groundwater supply + return flow) and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index and Water Supply Stress Index Ratio were developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population model, were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020. We found that population increase greatly stressed water supply in metropolitan areas located in the Piedmont region and Florida. Predicted land use and land cover changes will have little effect on water quantity and water supply‐water demand relationship. In contrast, climate changes had the most pronounced effects on regional water supply and demand, especially in western Texas where water stress was historically highest in the study region. The simulation system developed by this study is useful for water resource planners to address water shortage problems such as those experienced during 2007 in the study region. Future studies should focus on refining the water supply term to include flow exchanges between watersheds and constraints of water quality and environmental flows to water availability for human use.     

基于双剪屈服条件的输油管道腐蚀剩余强度可靠性研究

提出基于双剪屈服塑性极限条件的管道可靠性爆破压力可靠度模型,在基于剩余强度可靠性理论基础上,着重分析随机参数,即腐蚀深度、腐蚀长度和运行压力的分布情况,通过经典可靠性计算方法、JC法将非正态分布转化成标准正态分布,从而建立起基于双剪屈服条件的管道腐蚀可靠性计算模型。通过提取现场实验数据进行验算,其结果表明:双剪屈服强度理论算得的爆破压力更接近实验结果,该方法降低API579的保守性,大大提高了可靠性的计算精度。     

二氧化碳捕获和存储作为清洁发展机制项目的潜力与障碍分析

本文目的在于讨论和分析二氧化碳捕获和储存技术项目（CCS）作为清洁发展机制（CDM）项目的障碍和机遇。CCS被视为减少CO2人为排放量的选择方案之一,但在发展中国家,该技术面临着政策、成本和技术上的挑战。对这些国家而言,CDM几乎是发展CCS的唯一动机。本文分析了CCS作为CDM项目面临的项目边界、持久性、渗漏和可持续发展性的问题,并展望了未来的发展趋势。     

Acidification at Plastic Lake,Ontario: Has 20 Years Made a Difference?

In response to reduced sulphur emissions, there has been a large decrease in sulphate (; −0.97 μeq l⁻¹ year⁻¹) and hydrogen (−1.18 μeq l⁻¹ year⁻¹) ion concentration in bulk precipitation between 1980 and 2000 at Plastic Lake in central Ontario. The benefit of this large reduction in deposition on stream water chemistry was assessed using the gauged outflow from a conifer-forested catchment (PC1; 23.3 ha), which is influenced by a small wetland located immediately upstream of the outflow. Sulphate concentrations declined, but not significantly due to large inter-annual variation in concentration. Between 1980 and 2000, there were significant increases in dissolved organic carbon, ammonium and potassium concentration likely reflecting increased mineralisation in the wetland. Calcium concentrations in PC1 decreased during the two decade period (−2.24 μeq l⁻¹ year⁻¹), as a consequence there was no improvement in stream pH and the Ca:Al ratio in PC1 continued to decline. A similar response was noted in an upland-draining sub-catchment of PC1-08 that has been monitored since 1987. Despite large reductions in deposition and almost complete retention of nitrogen in soil, there has been no improvement (in terms of pH) in stream water at PC1 due to a combination of soil acidification and climatic (droughts, increased mineralisation) perturbations.