气候变化国际谈判进展及其核心问题

本文简要介绍了目前对气候变化问题的科学认识及其可能产生的影响以及气候变化国际谈判的进展情况 ,分析气候变化问题背后蕴含的政治、经济、科技、环境和外交斗争 ,概要阐述气候变化问题的本质。     

Trends of changes in the floristic composition of forest vegetation in the northern Baikal region upon climate warming

Parameters characterizing the activity of species in altitudinal zonal elements of the flora have been analyzed in the northern Baikal region. The results provide evidence for the weakening status of xerophilic species in the cenoflora of hemiboreal light coniferous forests of the class Rhytidio-Laricetea, which form the lower part of the forest belt bordering the steppe. This fact indicates that climate on the slopes of mountain ridges is becoming more humid. The increase in humidity may be explained by both progressing degradation of permafrost and increasing precipitation. On the other hand, no significant change has been observed in the cenoflora of mountain taiga forests of the class Vaccinio-Piceetea, which form the upper part of the forest belt.     

Climate Change in Southern and Eastern Africa During the Past Millennium and its Implications for Societal Development

Climatic records from equatorial eastern Africa and subtropical southern Africa have shown that both temperature and the amount of rainfall have varied over the past millennium. Moreover, the rainfall pattern in these regions varied inversely over long periods of time. Droughts started abruptly, were of multi-decadal to multi-centennial length and the changes in the hydrological budget were of large amplitude. Changing water resources in semi-arid regions clearly must have regional influences on both ecological and socio-economic processes. Through a detailed analysis of the historical and paleoclimatic evidence from southern and eastern Africa covering the past millennium it is shown that, depending on the vulnerability of a society, climatic variability can have an immense impact on societies, sometimes positive and sometimes disastrous. Therefore, the interconnected issue of world ecosystem and social resilience is the challenge for decision-makers if sustainable development is to be reached on global and local levels.     

Sustainable Development: The Need for a New Paradigm

At present, the term sustainable development is misleading because we actually live in a markedly unsustainable world and conditions will become even more unsustainable in the 21st century. Indeed, the 21st century will be the defining period in man's occupation of this planet. Either we take very positive steps to ameliorate our environmental excesses now or we face the prospect of major environmental catastrophes in the future. It is a fact that advanced civilizations have collapsed twice within the last 5000 years in Europe and we must face up to the fact that a third collapse, this time on a global scale, is not beyond the realms of possibility. It is therefore up to us to begin using our considerable ingenuity to prepare for the future in a more rational manner than is presently the case. This article demonstrates clearly the dilemma that we now face.     

Global Warming, Uncertainty and Endogenous Technical Change

What impact does ecological uncertainty have on agents' decisions concerning domestic emissions abatement, physical investments, and R&;D expenditures? How sensitive are the answers to these questions when we move from exogenous to endogenous technical change? To investigate these issues we modify the ETC-RICE model described in Buonanno et al. (2001) by embedding in it a hazard rate function as in Bosello and Moretto (1999). With this model at hand we run numerical optimisations focusing our attention on the control variables of the representative agents, i.e., domestic abatement rate, investments in physical capital, and R&;D spending, as well as on the endogenous patterns of GDP level and CO₂ emissions. Our results show that uncertainty strongly influences agents behaviour; in particular, agents slow down their emissions in order to maintain a more sustainable growth path. In addition, R&;D expenditures trigger the “engine of growth” exclusively when environmental technical change is formalized in an endogenous fashion. However, even if environmental uncertainty may stimulate technical change, long-run growth it turns out to be negatively affected by the former, as also predicted by Clarke and Reed (1994) Tsur and Zemel (1996) and Bosello and Moretto (1999).     

DETERMINING RAINS OF HYDROLOGIC CONSEQUENCE IN CHICAGO FOR FORECASTING APPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Accurate forecasting of heavy rainstorms that affect the Chicago Metropolitan area and lead to the undesirable release of storm runoff into Lake Michigan is a major objective. These releases (overflows) were found to be produced by storm events yielding 2 inches or more in a few hours, although only 24 percent of such ≥ 2-inch storms in the area during 1948-1981 produced overflows. Failure to forecast properly or to be able to react to these 2-inch overflow producing events has occurred most often in the spring and fall, although relatively often in June and July in recent years. These overflows have exhibited an inexplicable trebling during 1972-1981 without an increase in ≥ 2-inch storm events. This type of troublesome storm can be reliably predicted, using a recently developed radar man forecast system for the Chicago area.     

A COMPUTER SIMULATION PROGRAM FOR OPTIMIZING CONJUNCTIVE OPERATION OF DESALTING PLANTS1

ABSTRACT .Desalting plants can provide a means of firming up erratic natural supplies when properly operated in conjunction with existing water supply reservoir systems. Since the natural inflow is variable, the choice of when to run the desalting plant is difficult. If the plant is turned on too late, a shortage may result; or if the plant runs too long, costly water may be wasted. A computer program is described that can help water planners find an optimal operating rule, i.e., a policy that tells when to turn the plant on and off to meet a given demand. Criteria for defining the firm water yield of the system (with and without desalting) are first defined. The logic of the program is then described. The program, written in FORTRAN IV, successively simulates operation of the given size reservoir-desalting plant system under control of various operating rules and selects the optimal rule as the one which produces the required firm water yield at the least unit cost. The optimal plant size and the staging of construction can also be studied by making a series of computations. Applications of the Operating Rule Program to water systems in California, Utah and New York are described. The studies show that, compared with base load operation, substantial savings are possible if optimum intermittent conjunctive operation of the desalting plant is followed.     

The Holocene Dynamics of Vegetation and Ecological Conditions in the Polar Urals

Palynological, paleocarpological, and paleoentomological analyses of frozen peat deposits near Lake Pereval'noe, the Polar Urals, were performed to reveal the main stages of change in the pattern of vegetation over the period from the beginning of warming after the last Pleistocene glaciation to the late Holocene. Nine to four thousand years ago, the study region (at the present-day upper boundary of open larch forests) was covered with taiga forests, as the climate there was significantly warmer. These were larch–birch forests with an admixture of spruce and, later, spruce forests with larch and birch.     

辽宁省境内老哈河流域产沙特征及泥沙供给模式研究

在对辽宁省境内老哈河流域土壤侵蚀研究的基础上,通过计算泥沙迁移时间确定了该流域基于栅格尺度的泥沙输移比的空间分布,最终获得该流域的产沙量,结果表明北部的老官地、哈拉道口、烧锅营子等地以及中南部河流两侧是流域内主要产沙源;选用坡度、植被盖度、土地利用类型、土壤可蚀性、距河流距离、基岩岩性等因子,建立了老哈河流域泥沙供给的数学模型,结果表明流域产沙主要与坡度、距河流距离、土地利用类型和植被盖度密切相关。因此,改变土地利用类型、提高植被盖度是防治流域致灾泥沙的关键因素。本研究对今后老哈河流域土地利用规划及泥沙治理具有一定的指导意义。     

近30年来中国气候湿润程度变化的空间差异及其对生态系统脆弱性的影响

论文利用近30 a中国756个气象站点日观测数据计算中国陆地表层潜在蒸散和湿润指数现状及变化趋势,然后划分湿润程度变化对不同自然地带生态系统脆弱性影响的等级,并应用于农田、林地和草地三大生态系统脆弱性变化分析,结果显示:近30 a中国陆地表层平均年潜在蒸散为754 mm,平均湿润指数为-5.6,湿润指数平均变化率为-4.4/10 a,反映中国陆地表层湿润程度总体具有下降趋势。近30 a中国陆地表层气候湿润程度变化导致生态系统脆弱性增加的面积约占中国陆地面积的43.7%,主要集中在东北地区西南部、华北地区、西北地区东部,以及青藏高原的西部、北部和东部。总体上,近30 a中国陆地表层气候湿润程度变化对农田、林地和草地生态系统脆弱性具有不利影响。其中草地生态系统脆弱性增加的面积最大,约占草地生态系统总面积的63.2%;其次为农田生态系统,约占31.6%;林地生态系统脆弱性受影响面积最小,约占17.7%。