Vector-Borne Diseases, Development & Climate Change

Vector-borne diseases are feared to extend their range in a future where global warming has occurred. There is considerable concern about scourges such as malaria re-invading currently temperate regions and reaching into higher altitudes in Africa. In this paper we examine the various factors thought to determine potential infectivity of malaria, and its actual outbreak in the context of a dynamic integrated assessment model. We quantify: (i) the role of demographics in placing a larger population in harms way; (ii) the role of climate change in increasing the potential geographic range and severity of the risk of infection; and (iii) the role of economic and social development in limiting the occurrence of malaria. We then explore the climate and economic implications of various climate policies in their effectiveness to limit potential infectivity of malaria. In illustration of these issues we present the climate-related and economics-related impacts of unilateral CO₂ control by OECD on incidence of malaria in non-OECD nations. The model presented here, although highly stylized in its representation of socio-economic factors, provides strong evidence of the role of socio-economic factors in determination of malaria incidence. The case study offers insights into unintended adverse consequences of well-meaning climate policies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于MODIS数据的河南省冬小麦产量遥感估算模型

小麦是世界上最重要的粮食作物,小麦生产对中国的粮食保障起着十分重要的作用,及时、准确、大范围对小麦产量进行监测预报,对于农学经济发展和粮食政策制定具有极为重要的现实意义。对作物产量进行遥感监测的原理是建立在其遥感特征基础之上的,通过建立作物长势指标与遥感信息的定量关系,可实现对作物产量的监测预报。文章基于2009年MODIS遥感数据和气象数据,利用Arcgis和ENVI提取纯小麦像元,并提取纯小麦像元对应的NDVI、NPP和LAI,获取分县NDVI、NPP和LAI均值,利用统计软件对产量数据和分县遥感参数均值进行数据整理和分析,建立了河南省冬小麦产量估算模型。以往研究多采用遥感图像上某像元和地面调查点进行研究,具有很大的不确定性,文章以县为单位,对冬小麦平均单产和县域内冬小麦种植像元遥感参数的均值进行相关研究,提高了模型模拟精度。同时文章选用多种遥感参数和多项气象因子建立估产模型,避免了针对一个参数进行估产的局限性。在最佳时相的选择上,根据冯美辰（2010）以往的研究结果,从4月以后,5月8日和4月20Et植被指数和产量相关性最大,4月份之前冬小麦处于返青到拔节期,对产量来说还有很多不确定闪素,因此文章选用5月8El和4月20日进行冬小麦估产研究。结果表明,5月8日的估产模型优于4月20日,加入气象冈子的遥感气象估产模型优于只采用遥感参数进行估产的遥感模型。利用2010年产量数据对模型精度进行检验,遥感气象模型预测精度在70．2％N99．7％之间,平均精度为90．7％;遥感模型预测精度在68．1％到95．5％之间,平均精度为83．9％。表明遥感气象模型模拟精度更高,其精度可以满足大面积估产要求,可以对产量预报提供科学参考。     

Effects of Widespread Drought‐Induced Aspen Mortality on Understory Plants

Forest die‐off around the world is expected to increase in coming decades as temperature increases due to climate change. Forest die‐off will likely affect understory plant communities, which have substantial influence on regional biological diversity, ecosystem function, and land–atmosphere interactions, but how die‐off alters these plant communities is largely unknown. We examined changes in understory plant communities following a widespread, drought‐induced die‐off of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) in the western United States. We assessed shrub and herbaceous cover and volume in quadrats in 55 plots located across a wide range of levels of aspen mortality. We measured species richness and composition of herbaceous plant communities by recording species presence and absence in 12 sets of paired (1 healthy, 1 dying) aspen plots. Although understory composition in healthy and dying stands was heterogeneous across the landscape, shrub abundance, cover, and volume were higher and abundance of herbaceous species, cover, and volume were lower in dying aspen stands. Shrub cover and volume increased from 2009 to 2011 in dying stands, which suggests that shrub growth and expansion is ongoing. Species richness of herbs declined by 23% in dying stands. Composition of herbs differed significantly between dying and healthy stands. Richness of non‐native species did not differ between stand types. The understory community in dying aspen stands was not similar to other shrub‐dominated plant communities in the region and may constitute a novel community. Our results suggest that changes in understory plant communities as forests die off could be a significant indirect effect of climate change on biological diversity and forest communities. Efectos de la Mortalidad Extensiva de Álamos Inducida por Sequía sobre Plantas del Sotobosque     

近35a西藏那曲地区湖泊动态遥感与气候因素关联度分析

利用1976、1990、2000和2010年4期遥感影像对西藏那曲地区面积大于1 km2湖泊的动态变化进行信息提取,并结合1966—2010年研究区9个站点的气象数据,探讨其对气候变化的响应。结果表明,2010年那曲地区大于1 km2湖泊的总面积为16 841.93 km2,湖泊总数为469。近35 a那曲地区大于1 km2湖泊面积共增加3 505.12km2,增幅为26.28%,其中以2000—2010年增长速度最快,达18.18%;近35 a湖泊数量增加96,增幅为25.73%,其中以1990—2000年增幅最大,达13.38%。色林错面积从1976年的1 648.61 km2增加到2010年的2 332.55km2,超过纳木错成为西藏第一大咸水湖。1966年以来,那曲地区年平均温度、年平均最高温度、年平均最低温度、年平均相对湿度和年平均降水量总体呈上升趋势,年平均蒸发量呈下降趋势,气候朝暖湿方向发展,其中温度变化最明显,线性气温倾向率为0.51℃.(10 a)-1。湖泊动态变化与气象因子的灰度关联分析表明,气温升高引起冰雪融水增加、降水量增加、相对湿度增加和蒸发量减少,是近35 a来那曲地区湖泊面积和数量不断增加的主要原因。气象要素与湖泊面积间的回归方程表明,两者具有显著线性相关关系。     

Origins and scales of hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf: Importance of seasonal plankton dynamics and river nutrients and discharge

Management plans for the Mississippi River Basin call for reductions in nutrient concentrations up to 40% or more to reduce hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), while at the same time the government is considering new farm subsidies to promote development of biofuels from corn. Thus there are possibilities of both increasing and decreasing river nutrients depending on national priorities. River flow rates which also influence the extent of hypoxia on the shelf may be altered by global climate change. We have therefore developed a series of simulations to forecast ecosystem response to alterations in nutrient loading and river flow. We simulate ecosystem response and hypoxia events using a linked model consisting of multiple phytoplankton groups competing for nitrogen, phosphorus and light, zooplankton grazing that is influenced by prey edibility and stoichiometry, sub-pycnocline water-column metabolism that is influenced by sinking fecal pellets and algal cells, and multi-element sediment diagenesis. This model formulation depicts four areas of increasing salinity moving westward away from the Mississippi River point of discharge, where the surface mixed layer, four bottom layers and underlying sediments are represented in each area. The model supports the contention that a 40% decrease in river nutrient will substantially reduce the duration and areal extent of hypoxia on the shelf. But it also suggests that in low and middle salinity areas the hypoxia response is saturated with respect to nutrients, and that in high salinity regions small increases in nutrient and river flow will have disproportionally large effects on GOM hypoxia. The model simulations also suggest that river discharge is a stronger factor influencing hypoxia than river nutrients in the Mississippi River plume. Finally, the model simulations suggest that primary production in the low salinity regions is light limited while primary production in the higher salinity zones is phosphate limited during the May to October period when hypoxia is prevalent in the Mississippi River plume.     

高产田养分平衡及其环境风险特征研究

选择连续四年产量20000kg·hm-2以上的高产田为研究对象,并以当地常规农田为对照,分析了秸秆还田条件下冬小麦-夏玉米高产轮作体系中养分平衡及环境风险特征。结果表明,高产田和常规农田的氮、磷、钾素在冬小麦-夏玉米轮作体系中都有盈余,分别盈余130和202、122和162、315和119kg·hm-2。高产田氮素和磷素的盈余量小于常规农田,钾素盈余量高于常规农田。在冬小麦-夏玉米轮作体系的各生育期,高产田0～100cm土体硝态氮均存在大量累积,小麦季大于玉米季,高产田大于常规农田,存在较高的淋溶风险。土壤电导率均小于土壤盐渍化的临界值,尚未出现土壤盐渍化的现象。     

A Global Conservation System for Climate-Change Adaptation

Abstract:  Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway .     

不同施肥处理对红壤晚稻田CH_4排放的影响

选取不同施肥处理的双季稻田为研究对象,采用静态箱-气相色谱法对晚稻田CH4排放通量进行观测。结果表明,与不施肥对照(T1)相比,各施肥处理CH4排放通量均有不同程度增加。其中秸秆还田+化肥处理(T5)CH4平均排放通量为9.96mg.m-2.h-1,比增氮磷施肥处理(T4)和对照分别增加26.1%和120.0%;平衡施肥处理(T2)和减氮磷施肥处理(T3)CH4平均排放通量比对照增加20%左右。说明施化肥可能提高水稻植株运输能力,进而增加CH4排放,但并未发现施化肥处理(T1、T2、T3和T4)之间CH4排放存在显著差异。同时对相关环境因素的分析表明,各处理CH4排放通量与土壤5cm深处温度间存在指数函数关系,并与田间水层厚度呈正相关关系(P<0.05)。综合考虑温室效应和稻谷产量,认为T2为推荐施肥方式,即N、P2O5和K2O施用量分别为180、90和135kg.hm-2,在插秧前1d施入占总N量70%的碳铵和全部磷肥、钾肥(过磷酸钙和氯化钾)作为基肥,并在分蘖期(2008年7月19日)追施占总N量30%的尿素。     

中国东南部太阳辐射变化特征、影响因素及其对区域气候的影响

基于8个站点1961年以来的长期太阳辐射及其它气象观测数据,通过线性回归、相关分析等方法,探讨近半个世纪以来中国东南部太阳辐射的变化特征,并分析了太阳辐射变化的影响因素以及对区域气候的影响。结果表明：该地区地表总太阳辐射自1961年以来呈下降趋势,变化率为-10.17MJ·m-2·a-1。太阳辐射下降主要集中在1961到1990年间,该时间段的下降趋势达到-39.43MJ·m-2·a-1,主要表现为直接辐射显著下降,散射辐射则变化不大;1990年代以后,地表总太阳辐射开始呈现上升趋势,变化率为13.21MJ·m-2·a-1。该地区太阳辐射变化与全球范围内太阳辐射＂变暗＂及＂变亮＂的变化是一致的。从云量对太阳辐射的作用来看,该地区太阳辐射的变化很有可能是受到低云量变化的影响;而太阳辐射的这种变化直接导致气温发生变化,使得最高气温和最低气温的变化出现不一致,日较差随之发生改变。