国家生产安全应急救援体系分级响应和救援程序探讨

应急救援的响应机制是国家生产安全应急体系运行的重要基础 ,是保证应急救援活动快速、有效的技术关键。应依据生产安全事故的预期后果、影响范围、事态控制和事件的性质 ,实行预备 (Ⅰ级 )、专业启动(Ⅱ级 )和国家启动 (Ⅲ级 )三级响应机制。在各级应急组织制定和实施通用的应急响应程序 ,使应急反应的接警、启动、救援实施、事态控制、应急恢复 ,直到应急结束的全过程实现程序化和标准化。同时还应建立应急救援演练与评审改进机制 ,以评价应急体系的能力 ,检验应急预案的实效性 ,持续改进 ,不断完善 ,以提高整体应急水平。     

浅谈蒸气锅炉的水位事故

通过分析锅炉缺水、满水和汽水共腾三种锅炉水位事故的原因 ,有针对性地提出了预防措施及发生锅炉水位事故的处理方法     

USE OF THE KRIGING METHOD FOR STUDYING CHARACTERISTICS OF GROUND WATER DROUGHTS1

round water drought events were derived by taking a truncation level through the time series of daily ground water depth that are recorded elevation differences between the water table and land surface at a well site. Droughts of various truncation levels at 70, 80, 90, and 95 percent, were obtained, where a 70 percent truncation level means that 70 percent of ground water depth data are less than or equal to the truncated value. The conditional probability that a drought occurring at a certain truncation level will prolong and advance to that of the next higher level was estimated. The regionalization analysis was conducted assuming that conditional probabilities estimated at selected wells are regionalized variables. Contour lines of conditional probabilities for each truncation level were constructed to express their spatial variability in the region. Estimation errors associated with the regionalization were reasonably small.     

井矿盐开发所致的辐射水平

本文报道了自贡市井矿盐开发所致的辐射水平。井矿盐开发的主要废弃物－卤泥中＾２３８Ｕ，＾２２６Ｒａ，＾２３２Ｔｈ的天然放射性核素比活度比四川省土壤中相应核素平均值高１－２个数量级，且造成卤泥堆积场和局部生产环境陆地γ辐射剂量率高出自贡市环境陆地γ辐射平均值的２．０－４８．３倍，最主超过１６５倍。部份卤泥和盐厂附近江河排放口底泥中天然放射性废物标准。     

MULTIYEAR DROUGHT SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: Previous studies on multiyear droughts have often been limited to the analysis of historic annual flow series. A major disadvantage in this approach can be described as the unavailability of long historic flow records needed to obtain a significant number of drought events for the analysis. To overcome this difficulty, the present study proposes to use synthetically generated annual flow series. A methodology is presented to model annual flows based on an analysis of the harmonic and stochastic properties of the observed flows. Once the model is determined, it can be utilized to generate a flow series of desired length so as to include many hydrologic cycles within the process. The key parameter for a successful drought study is the truncation level used to distinguish low flows from high flows. In this paper, a concept of selecting the truncation level is also presented. The drought simulation procedure is illustrated by a case study of the Pequest watershed in New Jersey. For the above watershed, multiyear droughts were derived from both historic and generated flow series. Three important drought parameters, namely, the duration, severity, and magnitude, were determined for each drought event, and their probability distributions were studied. It was found that gamma and log normal probaility functions produce the best fit for the duration and severity, respectively. The derived probability curves from generated flows can be reliably used to predict the longest drought duration and the largest drought severity within a given return period.     

倡导安全文化提高全民安全素质

论述倡导和弘扬安全又化，提高全民安全又化素质是一项战略性大举措；探讨倡导安全文化的意义及其发展方向；指出安全文化知识应全民必修；研讨安全文化的传播和继承；认为安全文化是高雅易懂的大众文化；提出安全文化建设的思考与建议。全文贯通了劳动部李伯勇部长倡导安全文化的主导思想以及对安全文化建设的关心、指导。     

RECENT RESEARCH ON EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other radiatively active trace gases have risen since the Industrial Revolution. Such atmospheric modifications can alter the global climate and hydrologic cycle, in turn affecting water resources. The clear physical and biological sensitivities of water resources to climate, the indication that climate change may be occurring, and the substantial social and economic dependencies on water resources have instigated considerable research activity in the area of potential water resource impacts. We discuss how the literature on climate change and water resources responds to three basic research needs: (1) a need for water managers to clearly describe the climatic and hydrologic statistics and characteristics needed to estimate climatic impacts on water resources, (2) a need to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources, and (3) a need to evaluate standard water management and planning methods to determine if uncertainty regarding fundamental assumptions (e.g., hydrologic stationarity) implies that these methods should be revised. The climatic and hydrologic information needs for water resource managers can be found in a number of sources. A proliferation of impact assessments use a variety of methods for generating climate scenarios, and apply both modeling approaches and historical analyses of past responses to climate fluctuations for revealing resource or system sensitivities to climate changes. Traditional techniques of water resources planning and management have been examined, yielding, for example, suggestions for new methods for incorporating climate information in real-time water management.     

INPUT/OUTPUT MODELS AS DECISION AIDS FOR LAKE RESTORATION1

ABSTRACT: Over the past several years, input/output models have been used increasingly as decisionmaking aids in the design of lake restoration activities because they provide an approximation of the link between nutrient influx and lake trophic status. To evaluate the applicability of these models as design tools, a study was conducted in which “before” and “after” data were obtained for 25 lakes which experienced reductions in nutrient inflow, and comparisons were made of observed and predicted changes in lake conditions. Three input/output models were used as predictive tools to describe lake response: those reported by Dillon and Rigler (1974) and by Vollenweider (1975, 1976). Based on described trophic states of oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and eutrophic, it was found that all three models yielded accurate predictions for at least 70 percent of the study lakes. The model of Vollenweider (1976) performed slightly better than the other two (80 percent correct) on the data set studied.     

An evaluation of the impact of persistent water level changes on the areal extent of Georgian Bay/North Channel marshlands

A conceptual mathematical model has recently been devised to assist environmental managers in predicting the impact on coastal marsh areas of long-term changes in water levels. The model considers such impact solely in terms of the geometry of the confining basin, the change in ambient water level, and the maximum depth for which bottom-rooted emergent vegetation is present. This model is applied to 17 shoreline marshes of various shapes in the Georgian Bay/North Channel region of the Great Lakes.Model outputs of predicted maximum and minimum marsh area subsequent to changes in long-term levels are compared to marsh areas measured from available historical air photos dating from 1935 to 1985. The results of such comparisons indicate that such a geometric model, despite its neglect of the biological complexities of marsh ecology, can serve as a valuable tool for assessing the range of impacts of both natural and man-made changes in long-term ambient water levels on shoreline marshes.     

Predicting retail shrink from performance pressure,ethical leader behavior,and store‐level incivility

Retail shrink, a form of inventory loss due primarily to employee theft and shoplifting, is a growing concern for retailers. Prior work on shrink has taken primarily an individual‐level focus to understanding this problem but has yet to really explore how the business context impacts shrink. The current study addresses this need by delineating and testing a unit‐level (i.e., between‐stores) conceptual model, wherein we examine the influence of performance pressure, ethical leader behavior, and store‐level incivility on shrink in a field study of 111 U.S. retail stores. Results demonstrate that performance pressure and ethical leadership interact to influence store‐level incivility. Further, stores with higher incivility also had higher levels of shrink. A focus on the contextual predictors of shrink provides timely insights into the role of performance pressure and leadership on store‐level incivility and consequently on retail shrink. In light of increasingly thin margins in the retail industry, the evidence on how pressure to perform and ethical leadership influences retail shrink may offer a solution to retailers looking to stem financial losses by promoting civility in the workplace.