金钟藤的年轮生长量与气候因子的相互关系

分析了金钟藤(Merremiaboisiana(Gagn.)vanOoststr.)的年轮特征,并探讨了它与温度等气候因子的关系。金钟藤的年轮极不规则,有许多自然隆起和裂缝。金钟藤的年轮生长量通过格子法来估算。结果表明金钟藤年轮的年平均生长量与温度呈极显著正相关,与降水、日照时数和相对湿度相关性不显著。罗浮山地区降水和日照时数基本能够满足金钟藤的生长,结合相关研究结果推测:温度可能是金钟藤快速生长的主要驱动因子。     

强震前淮北台地倾斜短临异常的探讨

地倾斜观测是目前我国作为探索地震前兆的重要手段之一,实践证明地倾斜与地震存在着一定的对应关系.本文尝试利用淮北台FSQ型及JB型倾斜仪的观测结果,通过分析,获取与全球、全国强震有关的短临前兆信息以及总结其基本特征,得到了一些经验性认识.     

Attitudes toward abortion for fetal anomaly in the second vs. the third trimester: A survey of Parisian obstetricians

Cross-cultural differences exist in prenatal diagnosis and abortion for fetal anomaly, stemming from variations in laws, reimbursement policies, litigation, physicians' decision-making authority, and attitudes toward the prevention of handicaps. The first part of this paper discusses such differences in France and the U.S. The second part describes a survey of practising obstetricians in Paris, designed to assess (1) their attitudes toward pregnancy termination for various conditions, (2) their concern about fetal viability, (3) their desire for diagnostic certainty before justifying a late abortion, and (4) their perceived role in such decision-making. Among the 64.8 per cent (N = 217) who responded, the majority supported third-trimester termination (TTT) for diseases such as spina bifida, trisomy 21 , microcephaly, and Duchenne muscular dystrophy; 30–59 per cent supported TTT for cystic fibrosis and sickle cell disease; and 22–29 per cent supported TTT for haemophilia, tetralogy of Fallot, limb amputation, and Turner and Klinefelter syndromes. Obstetricians who approved of abortion across trimesters were less concerned with the certainty of diagnosis than its severity, more likely to think that abortion ought to be the parents' choice, but more likely to report making a recommendation to the parents about whether to abort a fetus. Such permissive abortion attitudes might imply more permissive prenatal diagnosis and abortion practice among Parisian obstetricians, which might lead to increased migration of patients from other E.C. countries. Cross-cultural variation in obstetric practice suggests that an international registry of pregnancies terminated for medical reasons, enabling further study of this issue, would be valuable.     

GIS支持下的黄土高原地区植被生态梯度分析

在地理信息系统(GIS)支持下对黄土高原地区257个样方的植被进行了研究。DCA分析较好地反映了植被的连续性变化及植被的生态梯度与气候因子的关系。分析的结果表明．植被组成和结构沿经、纬度变化明显，分异出森林、森林草原、温性草原、荒漠半荒漠植被等不同类型，优势种替代明显，植物种类也形成了不同的生态类型。植被的梯度变化与气候因子密切相关，较好地反映了黄土高原地区环境与结构的空间变异特点。     

基于热异常探测的北京水泥厂大气污染排放评估

为对水泥行业实现大气污染排放动态监测,反映污染排放的时空分布特征,提出基于热异常点探测数据的新型干法水泥气态污染物排放量测算方法.利用VIIRS热异常点的FRP(fire radiation power,辐射功率)参数结合水泥产业结构特点,建立FRP与污染物排放之间的定量估算关系.利用2013—2017年北京市水泥生产统计信息和热异常点探测数据进行了大气污染排放评估,结果显示:①利用热异常产品的FRP参数估算北京市水泥厂的污染排放水平,利用NO_x和SO₂排放量的统计数据对排放估算值进行相关性验证,二者统计值与估算值之间的相关性系数分别为0.65和0.63.②2013—2017年北京市所有水泥厂的热异常点数据与环境统计数据中水泥总产量、熟料总产量、煤炭总产量以及NO_x、SO₂和烟(粉)尘排放量的相关性均较好,相关性系数均在0.7左右.③自2013年以来,北京市金隅琉水环保科技有限公司和北京金隅北水环保科技有限公司的热异常点数均呈下降趋势.由于采取了减排措施,水泥总产量和污染排放量也均呈逐年减少的趋势.研究显示,基于热异常点探测数据的新型干法水泥气态污染物排放量测算方法可快速获取水泥厂的位置信息、热释放规模,结合污染排放因子可间接评估水泥厂NO_x和SO₂等主要污染物的排放情况.      

Prediction of response of zooplankton biomass to climatic and oceanic changes

This paper examines the long-term variation in zooplankton biomass in response to climatic and oceanic changes, using a neural network as a nonlinear multivariate analysis method. Zooplankton data collected from 1951 to 1990 off the shore of northeastern Japan were analyzed. We considered patterns of the Kuroshio and the Oyashio, sea surface temperature, and meteorological parameters as environmental factors that affect zooplankton biomass. Back propagation neural networks were trained to generate mapping functions between environmental variables and zooplankton biomass. The performance of the network models was tested by varying the numbers of input and hidden units. Changes in zooplankton biomass could be predicted from environmental conditions. The neural network yielded predictions with smaller errors than those of predictions determined by linear multiple regression. The sensitivity analysis of networks was used to extract predictive knowledge. The air pressure, sea surface temperature, and some indices of atmospheric circulation were the primary factors for predictions. The patterns of the Kuroshio and the Oyashio demonstrated different effects among sea areas.     

环境实验室温度均匀性的数值分析研究

目的研究送风参数及围护结构对飞机结构及机构环境条件下功能性和耐久性实验室温度均匀性的影响。方法采用CFD方法对实验室的气流组织进行数值模拟,根据气流组织评价标准对工作区的温度均匀性进行分析。结果送风温差越大、送风速度越小温度场均匀性越差,保温层较厚时,温差过大将导致工作区温度分布达不到设计要求。结论相同温差下,减少送风口数量并提高单个送风口的送风速度有助于提高温度均匀性。     

公元1600年秘鲁Huaynaputina火山喷发与长江中下游地区的气候异常

公元1600年秘鲁Huaynaputina火山喷发是过去1 000年全球最大规模的火山喷发之一。考察了此次火山喷发在中国长江中下游地区的可能气候效应。经查阅中国历史文献，在《见闻杂记》、《袁宏道集》和明清地方志中发现了有价值的资料。此次火山喷发在长江中下游地区的气候效应可能表现得比较复杂。结合《见闻杂记》和明清地方志，发现1601年长江下游地区夏季降雪，异常寒冷；结合《袁宏道集》和明清地方志，发现1602年年初至春季长江中下游地区异常多雪和寒冷，这些气候异常与欧洲历史文献和北半球树轮序列等比较一致。另外，结合《见闻杂记》和明清地方志，还发现1601年秋季长江下游部分地区异常炎热。上述气候异常未必都能完全归因于Huaynaputina喷发，但Huaynaputina喷发应该是其中的一个重要原因。〖     

成都冬季典型辐射逆温过程分析

本文利用测温声雷达的探测结果，借助同期探空和地面观测资料，分析了成都平原典型辐射逆温的生消演变规律，指出了其主要特征。这些结果对气候资源利用、污染气象条件的研究等具有重要意义。     

常熟定点形变对江苏及南黄海中强震映震能力及预报效能分析

采用地形变前兆特征研究中的多种方法,利用常熟台定点形变观测资料,对自1985 年以来发生在江苏省及南黄海海域的中强地震进行了研究及观测手段的映震能力检验,得出:(1) 常熟地倾斜对其周围200 km 范围内MS≥4-5 地震有较好的中、短期前兆异常显示;(2) 归纳总结各分析方法判别获得的异常表明,常熟地倾斜单台信度较高,具有较强的映震能力。