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51.
黑龙江省森林资源动态变化与发展趋势预测 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
以黑龙江省2004年统计年鉴的统计数据为依据,分析了全省森林资源现状的特点,并以近50多年来森林资源清查数据为基础,对森林资源主要项目的动态变化进行了客观的分析,力求寻找变化的原因.通过建立灰色预测GM(1.1)模型,预测未来时期森林资源发展趋势,提出了相应对策,以期实现科学经营森林以及森林资源的可持续发展. 相似文献
52.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS IN NORTHERN CANADA: INTEGRATING INDIGENOUS PERSPECTIVES WITH GOVERNMENT POLICY 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
John?NewtonEmail author C.?D.?James?Paci Aynslie?Ogden 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2005,10(3):541-571
A study of the relationship between natural hazards and climate change in the international context provides the background
for a discussion of the expected changes. In the context of this global discussion, this paper reviews the current perspectives
of those natural hazards that are likely to be influenced by climate change, using northern Canada as a regional case study.
The northern implications of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are examined, including the status
of climate change action by the northern territorial governments, the evolving role of indigenous people, and the responsibility
for climate change impacts. The difficulties surrounding natural hazards research in remote locations, and the approaches
of indigenous people to natural hazards are then presented. The paper concludes with a suggested policy approach for climate
change and natural hazards in northern Canada, underscoring the need for more comprehensive adaptive strategies to complement
the current tendency to focus on the mitigation of greenhouse gases produced in this region. 相似文献
53.
Keith E. Schilling Robert D. Libra 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2003,39(4):851-860
ABSTRACT: Historical trends in annual discharge characteristics were evaluated for 11 gauging stations located throughout Iowa. Discharge records from nine eight‐digit hydrologic unit code (HUC‐8) watersheds were examined for the period 1940 to 2000, whereas data for two larger river systems (Cedar and Des Moines Rivers) were examined for a longer period of record (1903 to 2000). In nearly all watersheds evaluated, annual base flow, annual minimum flow, and the annual base flow percentage significantly increased over time. Some rivers also exhibited increasing trends in total annual discharge, whereas only the Maquoketa River had significantly decreased annual maximum flows. Regression of stream discharge versus precipitation indicated that more precipitation is being routed into streams as base flow than as storm flow in the second half of the 20th Century. Reasons for the observed stream flow trends are hypothesized to include improved conservation practices, greater artificial drainage, increasing row crop production, and channel incision. Each of these reasons is consistent with the observed trends, and all are likely responsible to some degree in most watersheds. 相似文献
54.
Foreword Inglobalview ,droughtdisasterisregardedasthemostserioustypeofnaturaldisasterintheworld ,whichhascausedthewidestrangeofeffectsandthebiggesteconomiclosses .Se veredroughtsmainlyoccurinAfrica ,India ,China ,formerSovietUnion ,NorthAmerica ,andAustralia,accountingforalmosthalfofcountriesintheworld .Droughtdisasteroccursfre quentlyinChina ,withwiderangeofinfluence ,whichisthemostseriousmeteorologicaldisas ter ,causingeconomiclossesinagriculture .Fromthe 50’stothe 80’sinthe 2 0thcent… 相似文献
55.
/ Land use/land cover classifications for 1973 and 1991, derived from the interpretation of satellite imagery, are quantified on the basis of biophysical land units in a study area in southeastern Australia. Nutrient export potentials are estimated for each land unit based on their composition of land use/land cover classes. Spatial and temporal comparisons are made of the land units based on the calculated pollution hazard indicators to provide an insight into changes in the state of the environment and the regional significance of land use changes. For example, one ecosystem, unique to the study, showed a large increase in pollution hazard over the study period as a manifestation of an 11-fold rise in cleared area and an expansion of cropping activities. The benefits to environmental management in general are discussed.KEY WORDS: Land cover change; Nutrient export; Environmental condition; Pollution hazard; Agricultural pollution; Nonpoint source pollution; Diffuse pollution; Environmental degradation 相似文献
56.
This article does not focus on adaptation or mitigation policy directly but on an allied opportunity that exists for the Pacific
Islands via the auspices of the Climate Convention, because the existing very costly energy systems used in the Pacific Island
region are fossil-fuel dependent. It is argued here that efforts can be made towards the development of energy systems that
are ecologically sustainable because Pacific Island nations are eligible to receive assistance to introduce renewable energy
technology and pursue energy conservation via implementation mechanisms of the Climate Convention and, in particular, through
transfer of technology and via joint implementation.
It is contended that assistance in the form of finance, technology, and human resource development from developed countries
and international organizations would provide sustainable benefits in improving the local Pacific Island environments. It
is also emphasized that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is not the responsibility of the Pacific Islands as they contribute
very little on a per capita global scale and a tiny proportion of total global greenhouse gas emissions. 相似文献
57.
This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning. 相似文献
58.
气候变化与自然灾害 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
气候变化与自然灾害是当今科学研究的两大热点,两者之间在一定程度上具有相关性,但目前要确切地定量计算气候变化对自然灾害的强度和出现频率的影响还很困难。本文在分析气候变化与自然灾害关系的基础上,研究了气候变化对我国自然灾害的影响。研究结果显示:1.在千年尺度上,长江流域的大旱和气候变冷成正相关,而长江流域的大涝以及黄河流域的大旱和大涝与气候冷暖过渡期成正相关;2.在百年尽度上,近1042年来,共出现281次全国性大旱和大涝,平均每百年出现27次,在地域分布上以南涝北旱为主;3.就百年至千年尺度的气候变化对自然灾害的影响而言,气候冷冷组合期(1301~1900)易发生全国性大涝,而冷暖组合期(950~1300年,1901~1991年)易发生全国性大旱。总的来说,冷冷组合期的大旱大涝发生频率明显大于暖期,但不同地区有差异;4.在其它影响方面,台风、地震与海啸灾害在冷暖组合期(20世纪)均有比冷冷组合期(14和19世纪)多的趋势。因此,气候变暖将使防灾任务更加艰巨。 相似文献
59.
60.
气候条件变化对棉纤维品质的影响 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
对棉纤维品质试验的结果分析表明,其长度受气候条件的影响不明显,而比强度和麦克隆值则明显受气候条件的影响。从变异值分析,受气候影响大小顺序是:比强度〉发克隆值〉长度。影响比强度的气候因子主要是日均温、累积降水量和相对湿度,影响麦克隆值的气候因子主要是日均温和累积降水量或夜均温、累积降水量。并确定影响比强度的日均温最低临界值为24.5℃,最适值为26.1℃,铃期累积降水量的最高临界值为109.9mm,最适值为44.6mm,栩对湿度的最高临界值为77.7%,最适值为67.9%。麦克隆值适宜范围的日均温为20.5~24.8℃,累积降水量为108.2~308.2mm。长度适宜范围的最低温度为14.7~20.8℃,相对湿度为84.7%~89.5%。这些因子和指标的确定为建立棉纤维品质的定量模型奠定了基础。 相似文献