气候变暖与我国夏季洪涝灾害风险

根据近十几年的月平均降水观测资料,对我国东部地区夏季降水的异常偏多和偏少的趋进行了分析,发现自７０年代后期以来,东部地区降水量及降水异常偏多事件有明显的处升趋势;同时异常偏少事件则略有下降,但不显著。     

俄罗斯布里亚特共和国植被NPP对气候变化的时空响应

以遥感和气象数据为主要数据源,运用改进后的CASA模型,估算了俄罗斯布里亚特共和国2000-2008年的植被NPP,并验证了模型的精度,分析了该地区植被NPP的时空变化规律及其与气候因子的相互关系。研究结果表明:时间上,植被NPP年际上呈现为在波动中上升,月份上表现为先升后降的趋势;空间上,植被NPP随经度的增加而增大,随纬度的增加而减小,由西南到东北逐渐递增的趋势;不同植被类型的NPP也不同,从大到小依此为:草地与沼泽林>森林>森林与草原>稀树草原>高山植被。其变化主要受气温和降水量变化的作用。改进后的CASA模型运用于布里亚特共和国植被NPP估算的精度较高。该研究对中国北方植被NPP估算和生态跨境研究具有借鉴意义。     

东北野生五味子种群特征及其与环境因子的关系

五味子(Schisandra chinensis)是著名的传统中药材,主要分布在我国东北地区. 受过度采摘和毁林开荒等不科学利用方式的影响,野生五味子资源急剧恶化. 沿长白山山脉和小兴安岭山脉调查了17个野生五味子种群,分析了种群特征、环境因子特征及二者的相关关系. 结果表明:①五味子果实质量与纬度呈极显著负相关,基径与海拔呈显著正相关,而种群密度空间分布规律不明显;五味子果实质量、基径和种群密度间不存在显著相关性. ②五味子果实千粒质量和基径平均值分别为(69.05±12.80) g和(0.61±0.13)cm,种群密度大,约50%五味子种群密度达到4级(>1.5～2.0株/m2). ③五味子野生种群采样点的土壤pH(5.34～6.98)呈酸性;w(SOC)(SOC为土壤有机碳)在4.42%～18.47%之间,差异较大;w(TN)、w(TK)和w(TP)平均值分别为0.72%±0.28%、1.74%±0.31%和0.10%±0.03%. ④年降水量在474~928mm之间;年日照时长变化幅度小,在2219.3～2703.7h之间;年均气温和年均相对湿度的平均值分别为(3.46±1.44) ℃和68.9%±2.7%. 主成分分析表明,五味子果实质量受环境因子影响显著,其中年均气温的影响最大,其次是w(TP)、w(TN)、w(SOC)和年降水量;而基径和种群密度受环境因子的影响不显著. 对野生五味子种群生长限制因子的分析结果可为该种群保护、人工栽培与调控奠定理论基础.      

青藏高原夏季500hPa纬向风昼夜差异及其影响

论文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及中国142 个测站12 小时降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、合成分析、相关分析等方法,对青藏高原夏季500 hPa 纬向风的昼夜变化特征及其影响进行了分析。结果表明：自1950 年以来,高原夏季500 hPa 昼、夜纬向风均呈现整体减弱趋势,且减弱趋势夜间比白天明显,纬向风日较差呈增大趋势。高原昼、夜纬向风在1967 年均存在减弱突变,纬向风日较差存在1965 年的减小突变和1975 年的增大突变,纬向风日较差具有4~6 a 及16~23 a 的显著周期。高原昼夜纬向风异常,使得高原东侧及其以东地区出现异常的上升或下沉气流,且高原纬向风减弱时,长江以北的我国大部分地区降水偏少,长江以南地区降水偏多,降水对高原纬向风异常响应的昼夜差异主要表现在四川盆地东西部降水异常的昼夜差异上。     

长江三峡库区连阴雨的气候特征分析

本文利用长江三峡库区34个气象站1961～2001年的逐日降水资料,分析了库区连阴雨发生频次、持续时间的时空分布特征.结果表明,近40多年来,长江三峡库区年及秋季降水日数以及春、秋季降水量都存在减少趋势.降水量和降水日数的变化会导致连阴雨天气特征发生一定改变.统计表明,近40多年来,库区平均年连阴雨频次有微弱的减少趋势,主要发生在库区西部和南部地区,这种减少趋势主要是由于秋季连阴雨的减少造成的.按照连阴雨影响范围和严重程度的年型划分的统计结果也表明,库区秋季连阴雨在近40多年来有明显的减弱,1960年代至1970年代中期是三峡库区秋季连阴雨的多发季节,秋雨影响范围广、程度重,1970年代后期以来,特别是1990年代后期,秋季连阴雨影响程度明显减弱.     

我国气象灾害的分类与防灾减灾对策

本文根据气象灾害特征、致灾因子和天气现象类型,将我国的气象灾害划分为7大类20种.为了适应科学防灾减灾和社会、经济快速发展的需求,必须加快大气监测、信息加工和气象灾害预警能力为主要内容的气象现代化建设;加强气象灾害的机理研究;制定科学防灾减灾对策.     

SENSITWITY OF IRRIGATION DEMAND IN A HUMID-TEMPERATE REGION TO HYPOTHETICAL CLIMATIC CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: An irrigation model based on a modified Thornthwaite water balance was used to simulate the effects of various hypothetical climatic changes on annual irrigation demand in a humidtemperate climate. The climatic-change scenarios consisted of combinations of changes in temperature, precipitation, and stomatal resistance of plants to transpiration. The objectives were to (1) examine the effects of long-term changes in these components of climatic change on annual irrigation demand, and (2) identify which of these factors would cause the largest changes in annual irrigation demand. Hypothetical climatic changes that only included increases in temperature and changes in precipitation resulted in increased annual irrigation demand, even with a 20 percent increase in precipitation. The model results showed that, for the ranges of changes in temperature and precipitation used in this study, changes in irrigation demand were more sensitive to changes in temperature than to changes in precipitation. Model results also indicated that increased stomatal resistance to transpiration counteracted the effects of increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation on irrigation demand. Changes in irrigation demand were even more sensitive to changes in stomatal resistance than to changes in temperature. A large amount of uncertainty is associated with predictions of future climatic conditions; however, uncertainty associated with natural climatic variability may be larger and may mask the effects of climatic change on irrigation demand.     

THE RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF DAMS AND SECULAR CLIMATIC CHANGE ON DOWNSTREAM FLOODING,AUSTRALIA1

An examination of 100 years of flood record at Windsor on the Hawkesbury River in Eastern Australia suggests that Warragamba Dam, which encloses 62 percent of the catchment area, has negligible effect upon flooding. Secular climate change is the important variable in determining changes in flood regime.     

湖北的气候生产力与农业持续发展

基于对湖北省主要农作物气候生产力的估算,分析了目前气候生产力利用的现状,由于受到自然条件和社会条件的限制,在目前大田生产的条件下,湖北粮食气候生产力利用率相对较低,即使是利用率稍高的中稻,其历史最高产量也仅为气候生产力的一半,气候生产潜力较大。因此,如何加强农业气候生产力的开发利用,最大限度的发挥气候资源的作用,将是实现湖北农业持续发展需要解决的重大问题之一。     

THE UNIT HYDROGRAPH: A SATISFACTORY MODEL OF WATERSHED RESPONSE?1

ABSTRACT: Some 96 flood events larger than the mean annual flood from 16 watersheds in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania were used to derive unit hydrographs by the least-squares method. Analyses of the unit hydrographs were conducted to ascertain their response to watershed parameters, climatic and storm variables and locations within different hydrologic regions. Significant differences both within and among watersheds led to the formulation and testing of hypotheses stating that differences among watersheds are caused by physiographic differences while differences within watersheds result from climatic and storm differences. The analysis showed, that while many watersheds parameters strongly influence the shape of the unit hydrograph, only the storm variables duration and volume of precipitation excess produce significant differences. Seasonal differences were apparent but not proven statistically significant.