南水北调穿越北京地铁13号线清河桥施工优化分析

以南水北调工程盾构施工穿越北京地铁13号线清河桥工程为背景,采用有限元分析方法,针对不同施工加固措施及行车速度条件下所引起的桥面竖向变形、桥墩竖向变形和地表沉降等问题进行了研究。总结了预加固旋喷桩配比参数、注浆配比参数及行车速度等因素对各结构变形的影响程度。结果表明:水灰比为1.00时的旋喷桩,既能控制结构变形,又具有较高的经济和施工效益;水泥浆与水玻璃浆之比为1.0∶1.0时的注浆参数最优;行车速度控制在50 km/h以下时,能较好地控制结构变形的发展。最后通过对施工过程中各结构的变形进行监测,验证了优化结果的合理性。     

Effects of wind‐energy facilities on breeding grassland bird distributions

The contribution of renewable energy to meet worldwide demand continues to grow. Wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable sectors, but new wind facilities are often placed in prime wildlife habitat. Long‐term studies that incorporate a rigorous statistical design to evaluate the effects of wind facilities on wildlife are rare. We conducted a before‐after‐control‐impact (BACI) assessment to determine if wind facilities placed in native mixed‐grass prairies displaced breeding grassland birds. During 2003–2012, we monitored changes in bird density in 3 study areas in North Dakota and South Dakota (U.S.A.). We examined whether displacement or attraction occurred 1 year after construction (immediate effect) and the average displacement or attraction 2–5 years after construction (delayed effect). We tested for these effects overall and within distance bands of 100, 200, 300, and >300 m from turbines. We observed displacement for 7 of 9 species. One species was unaffected by wind facilities and one species exhibited attraction. Displacement and attraction generally occurred within 100 m and often extended up to 300 m. In a few instances, displacement extended beyond 300 m. Displacement and attraction occurred 1 year after construction and persisted at least 5 years. Our research provides a framework for applying a BACI design to displacement studies and highlights the erroneous conclusions that can be made without the benefit of adopting such a design. More broadly, species‐specific behaviors can be used to inform management decisions about turbine placement and the potential impact to individual species. Additionally, the avoidance distance metrics we estimated can facilitate future development of models evaluating impacts of wind facilities under differing land‐use scenarios.     

Practical management of cumulative anthropogenic impacts with working marine examples

Human pressure on the environment is expanding and intensifying, especially in coastal and offshore areas. Major contributors to this are the current push for offshore renewable energy sources, which are thought of as environmentally friendly sources of power, as well as the continued demand for petroleum. Human disturbances, including the noise almost ubiquitously associated with human activity, are likely to increase the incidence, magnitude, and duration of adverse effects on marine life, including stress responses. Stress responses have the potential to induce fitness consequences for individuals, which add to more obvious directed takes (e.g., hunting or fishing) to increase the overall population‐level impact. To meet the requirements of marine spatial planning and ecosystem‐based management, many efforts are ongoing to quantify the cumulative impacts of all human actions on marine species or populations. Meanwhile, regulators face the challenge of managing these accumulating and interacting impacts with limited scientific guidance. We believe there is scientific support for capping the level of impact for (at a minimum) populations in decline or with unknown statuses. This cap on impact can be facilitated through implementation of regular application cycles for project authorization or improved programmatic and aggregated impact assessments that simultaneously consider multiple projects. Cross‐company collaborations and a better incorporation of uncertainty into decision making could also help limit, if not reduce, cumulative impacts of multiple human activities. These simple management steps may also form the basis of a rudimentary form of marine spatial planning and could be used in support of future ecosystem‐based management efforts.     

高风速下沙粒跃移跃距的实验研究

跃距是颗粒运动的重要参数之一,沙粒跃距的实验研究对沙粒跃移理论研究有重要的参考意义.由于高风速下沙粒跃移轨迹平缓,飞行距离较长,因而,高风速下沙粒跃距的实验研究很少.通过对沙粒跃移特点进行分析,提出同时采用水平集沙仪和垂直集沙仪观测沙粒跃距的方法,并采用该方法对高风速下沙粒跃距进行野外观测研究.结果表明,沙粒跃距随粒径减小呈指数规律增大,沙粒粒径与运动方式转换趋势与前人研究结果基本一致,说明该方法测量沙粒跃距是可行的.     

河北省夏玉米气候适宜度及其变化特征分析

采用逐日气象要素和统计方法,建立了河北省夏玉米（Zea Mays）各生育期气候适宜度评价模型,计算了河北省1981—2010年逐年夏玉米各生育期气温、降水、日照、气候适宜度值,并对夏玉米各生育期气候适宜度特征及变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：夏玉米生长期间气温适宜度最高,日照次之,降水最低且变异系数最大。气温适宜度以夏玉米灌浆期最低,变异系数最大;日照和降水适宜度均以抽雄期最低且变异系数最大。多年适宜度变化趋势为：全生育期日照适宜度明显下降（下降速率为0.047/10a）;气温适宜度基本持平;降水适宜度波动较大,无明显变化规律。幼苗和灌浆期气候适宜度呈下降趋势（下降速率分别为0.015/10a,0.024/10a）,其中幼苗期气候适宜度下降由期间气温和日照适宜度下降引起;灌浆期气候适宜度下降由日照和降水适宜度下降引起。     

河北省夏玉米气候适宜度及其变化特征分析

采用逐日气象要素和统计方法,建立了河北省夏玉米(Zea Mays)各生育期气候适宜度评价模型,计算了河北省1981—2010年逐年夏玉米各生育期气温、降水、日照、气候适宜度值,并对夏玉米各生育期气候适宜度特征及变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:夏玉米生长期间气温适宜度最高,日照次之,降水最低且变异系数最大。气温适宜度以夏玉米灌浆期最低,变异系数最大;日照和降水适宜度均以抽雄期最低且变异系数最大。多年适宜度变化趋势为:全生育期日照适宜度明显下降(下降速率为0.047/10a);气温适宜度基本持平;降水适宜度波动较大,无明显变化规律。幼苗和灌浆期气候适宜度呈下降趋势(下降速率分别为0.015/10a,0.024/10a),其中幼苗期气候适宜度下降由期间气温和日照适宜度下降引起;灌浆期气候适宜度下降由日照和降水适宜度下降引起。     

半横向通风方式隧道内污染物分布的数值仿真

某城市公路隧道采用半横向通风方式进行火灾排烟,其排风孔位于隧道侧壁顶部.针对该城市公路隧道,运用CFD数值仿真方法建立1:1的三维数值仿真模型,模拟不同工况下,开启不同形状排风孔时,隧道内的风速、风压以及污染物浓度的分布情况.研究表明,排风孔所在位置的隧道横断面上,形成一个左侧区域负压较高、压强变化梯度大而右侧区域负压...     

Tacoma大桥风振致毁事故机理分析与模拟

以Tacoma大桥风振致毁事故为例,从流体力学的角度系统分析了气流绕过桥体时流场对称性的破缺及其诱发桥梁振动的机理;并通过建立数值计算模型,采用Fluent软件对其进行了仿真计算。结果显示：当风速超过1m/s时,桥面上下侧压力对称性开始破缺,低压区从桥面的正下方（或正上方）逐渐向右移动,跨过右边墙后消失,同时在相反的一侧逐步形成低压区,然后又向右移动并逐渐消失,如此周期交替变化,并且在不同的风速条件下,交替变化的频率不同,其值随着风速的增加而逐步增大,但增长速率却随着风速的增加逐渐减小。     

参数不确定性对隧道火灾人员安全时间的影响研究

为分析参数不确定性对隧道火灾人员安全时间的影响,根据烟气失能指数建立人员安全时间预测模型。并将所建立的模型与Monte Carlo抽样方法相结合,用概率密度函数描述火灾增长系数、最大热释放速率等参数的不确定性,提出考虑参数不确定性的隧道火灾人员安全时间分析方法。计算分析结果表明:应用该方法可得到隧道火灾人员安全时间的上下限、均值、标准差等;就10 MW以下中小型客车火灾而言,火灾增长系数的不确定性对人员安全时间影响不大;随着热释放速率的增大,人员安全时间的均值逐渐减小,标准差逐渐增大,分布区间逐渐变宽;当热释放速率超过120 MW时,人员安全时间的分布区间、均值、标准差基本趋于稳定。在热释放速率给定条件下,随着通风风速的增加,人员安全时间上下限有所提高且分布区间增宽,同时均值和标准差均有所增加。     

2000年以来内蒙古生长季旱情变化遥感监测及其影响因素分析

为探讨内蒙古旱情状况及其影响因素,利用MODIS 16 d合成的植被指数产品数据MOD13A2和8 d合成的地表温度产品数据MOD11A2构建Ts-NDVI特征空间,计算温度植被干旱指数（TVDI）,基于内蒙古2000—2017年生长季每16 d的TVDI分析了近18年来内蒙古生长季旱情时空分布特征,结合气温和降水资料初步探讨了旱情变化的影响因素。结果表明：（1）2000—2017年内蒙古生长季TVDI平均值为0.6,重旱和中旱所占面积最大,其中2007年、2010年为旱情最为严重的年份。内蒙古干旱空间分异明显,西南部以轻旱为主,中部地区以中旱为主,大兴安岭以西的呼伦贝尔草原等地旱情严重。（2）近18年内蒙古生长季干旱程度呈现轻微加重趋势,年际变化值θ_slope介于-0.07~0.7之间,阿鲁科尔沁旗东北部至霍林河一带旱情加重趋势最为严重,阿荣旗和扎兰屯等农业生产地区旱情有轻微加重趋势。（3）2017年内蒙古生长季以区域性和局域性干旱为主,6月和9月干旱最为严重,呼伦贝尔草原和鄂尔多斯高原西部干旱发生频率高且程度重。（4）内蒙古干旱影响因子分析结果表明,TVDI值与气温呈正相关、与降水和坡度呈负相关、与小于1300 m的高程呈正相关、与大于1300 m的高程呈负相关关系。内蒙古生长季TVDI与气温和降水偏相关分析结果表明,锡林郭勒盟苏尼特左旗北部、呼伦贝尔鄂伦春自治旗和呼伦贝尔草原等地旱情与气温正相关关系较为显著（P<0.01）,锡林郭勒盟东北部干旱情况与降水负相关关系较为显著（P<0.01）,其中,气温对旱情的影响强于降水。