基于变权灰色云模型的江苏省水环境系统脆弱性评价

水环境系统脆弱性是水资源利用与生态环境研究的热点问题,通过研究水环境系统的内在机理,综合考虑影响水环境系统脆弱性的资源、环境、经济、社会等因素,借助驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理（DPSIRM）框架构建水环境系统脆弱性评价指标体系。在此基础上,构建基于变权灰色云模型的评价方法,对2004~2014年江苏省水环境系统脆弱性进行评价。结果表明：2004~2014年水环境系统脆弱性指数由47.056提高到63.210,脆弱性等级由“重度脆弱”演化为“中度脆弱”,并长期维持在“中度脆弱的”等级,2014年出现了向“轻度脆弱”状态转变的趋势。分析各个子系统对水环境系统脆弱性影响程度可知,影响子系统和响应子系统对江苏省水环境脆弱性系统的影响程度逐年增加;而压力子系统和管理子系统对水环境系统脆弱性的影响程度逐年下降;其它子系统对水环境系统脆弱性的影响维持在一定水平小幅度波动。     

Implications of high altitude desert dust transport from Western Sahara to Nile Delta during biomass burning season

The air over major cities and rural regions of the Nile Delta is highly polluted during autumn which is the biomass burning season, locally known as black cloud. Previous studies have attributed the increased pollution levels during the black cloud season to the biomass or open burning of agricultural waste, vehicular, industrial emissions, and secondary aerosols. However, new multi-sensor observations (column and vertical profiles) from satellites, dust transport models and associated meteorology present a different picture of the autumn pollution. Here we show, for the first time, the evidence of long range transport of dust at high altitude (2.5-6 km) from Western Sahara and its deposition over the Nile Delta region unlike current Models. The desert dust is found to be a major contributor to the local air quality which was previously considered to be due to pollution from biomass burning enhanced by the dominant northerly winds coming from Europe.     

A Comprehensive Python Toolkit for Accessing High‐Throughput Computing to Support Large Hydrologic Modeling Tasks

The National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE) was an undertaking that initiated a transformation in national hydrologic forecasting by providing streamflow forecasts at high spatial resolution over the whole country. This type of large‐scale, high‐resolution hydrologic modeling requires flexible and scalable tools to handle the resulting computational loads. While high‐throughput computing (HTC) and cloud computing provide an ideal resource for large‐scale modeling because they are cost‐effective and highly scalable, nevertheless, using these tools requires specialized training that is not always common for hydrologists and engineers. In an effort to facilitate the use of HTC resources the National Science Foundation (NSF) funded project, CI‐WATER, has developed a set of Python tools that can automate the tasks of provisioning and configuring an HTC environment in the cloud, and creating and submitting jobs to that environment. These tools are packaged into two Python libraries: CondorPy and TethysCluster. Together these libraries provide a comprehensive toolkit for accessing HTC to support hydrologic modeling. Two use cases are described to demonstrate the use of the toolkit, including a web app that was used to support the NFIE national‐scale modeling.     

安全评价方法在危险废物处置环境风险评价中的应用探讨

对安全评价方法在危险废物处置建设项目环境风险评价中的运用进行初步探索。主要用"工艺过程风险因素分析表"对工艺过程潜在风险性识别;用蒙德法进行源项分析;用池火灾模型、蒸气云爆炸伤害模型对易燃、易爆物质的火灾、爆炸等重大事故后果进行计算,得出人员的伤亡半径和财产损失半径等参数,以便于判断风险的可接受水平。分析结果表明:采用安全评价方法对危险废物处置建设项目进行环境风险评价是适用的、可行的。     

Canopy Seed Banks as Time Capsules of Biodiversity in Pasture-Remnant Tree Crowns

Abstract: Tropical pastures present multiple barriers to tree regeneration and restoration. Relict trees serve as “regeneration foci” because they ameliorate the soil microclimate and serve as safe spots for dispersers. Here, we describe another mechanism by which remnant trees may facilitate pasture regeneration: the presence of seed banks in the canopy soil that accumulates from decomposing epiphytes within the crowns of mature remnant trees in tropical cloud forest pastures. We compared seed banks of canopy soils (histosols derived from fallen leaves, fruits, flower, and twigs of host trees and epiphytes, dead bryophytes, bark, detritus, dead animals, and microorganisms, and dust that accumulate on trunks and the upper surfaces of large branches) in pastures, canopy soils in primary forest trees, and soil on the forest floor in Monteverde, Costa Rica. There were 5211 epiphytic and terrestrial plant seeds in the three habitats. All habitats were dominated by seeds in a relatively small number of plant families, most of which were primarily woody, animal pollinated, and animal dispersed. The density of seeds on the forest floor was greater than seed density in either pasture‐canopy or forest‐canopy soils; the latter two did not differ. Eight species in 44 families and 61 genera from all of the habitats were tallied. There were 37 species in the pasture‐canopy soil, 33 in the forest‐canopy soil, and 57 on the forest floor. Eleven species were common to all habitats. The mean species richness in the pasture canopy was significantly higher than the forest canopy (F =83.38; p < 0.02). Nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination revealed that the communities were distinct. Greenhouse experiments verified that many of these seeds were viable, with 29 taxa germinating (23 taxa in pruned mats [mimic of exposed conditions] and 16 taxa in control mats [intact conditions]) within 2 months of observation. Nearly half the species that germinated were characteristic of primary forests (primary forest samples, 19%; pasture samples, 29%). This supports the idea that canopy seed banks of pasture trees can function as time capsules by providing propagules that are removed in both space and time from the primary forest. Their presence may enhance the ability of pastures to regenerate more quickly, reinforcing the importance of trees in agricultural settings.     

应用隶属函数的条件概率法综合判别雹云

本文提出应用隶属函数的条件概率法综合判别雹云。该方法把雹云和非雹云视作参数的模糊集合,因而在综合判别式中,每个参数对雹云和非雹云都有一个隶属度。利用成都市1982～1987年天气雷达回波历史资料,分别建立了全年、4～6月和7～8月的雹云等强对流天气的综合判别式,并用建立的模式对成都市1990年4～6月的7个强对流天气个例作试报检验。结果表明用该方法建立不同地区和不同季节的雹云等强对流天气综合判别式是可行的。     

天然气钻井井口安全距离研究分析

分析天然气钻井井场可能发生的事故类型及事故的破坏程度,选择适合的事故后果模型,对天然气井井喷失控后可能发生的蒸气云爆炸及硫化氢扩散的后果进行量化分析,根据超压-冲量准则、热剂量准则和硫化氢扩散行为规律,计算出爆炸波、爆炸火球及硫化氢扩散的危害范围。笔者建立了天然气钻井井口安全距离的计算模型,并提出一种确定安全距离的方法。通过计算给出不同无阻流量、不同硫化氢体积含量的20种条件下的天然气钻井井口安全距离,并应用该模型对某含硫气井井口安全距离进行了计算。实例表明,该方法具备实用性,值得在天然气井选址规划中推广和使用。     

Blast wave clearing behavior for positive and negative phases

The purpose of the research was to improve prediction of response of buildings to blast waves by including the negative phase and considering clearing of both positive and negative phases. Commonly used structural design practices, which trace their origins to military design manuals, often ignore the negative phase as well as positive phase clearing. For high explosive threats, this approach is conservative in most circumstances. However, negative phase clearing had not previously been studied for blast waves, and the implications for structural response had not been evaluated. This paper presents results of modeling negative phase blast clearing behavior for a typical blast wave and discusses the differences from positive phase clearing. The implications of including positive and negative phase clearing in building blast damage analysis are also investigated through single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) analyses.Blast waves from explosion sources like a vapor cloud explosion (VCE), pressure vessel burst or high explosive exhibit both positive and negative phases, and the relative magnitude of the positive and negative phases varies among explosion sources and the specific circumstances of each source. A fully reflected blast wave is produced if an incident blast wave were to strike an infinitely tall and wide wall in a normal orientation. Both the positive and negative phases of the blast wave are enhanced by the reflection process. However, when an incident blast wave strikes a wall of finite size in a normal orientation, rarefaction waves are created at the edges of the wall, and the rarefactions sweep down from the roof and inward from sides. The rarefaction waves result in a clearing effect for both the positive and negative phases.Clearing relieves some of the applied blast load on the reflected wall for the positive phase. However, this is not always the case for the negative phase. As shown by the results presented in this paper, clearing may either relieve or enhance the applied negative phase blast load, depending on the duration of the blast wave and the wall dimensions.The impact of negative phase clearing on structural response for generic building components was also investigated. Nonlinear SDOF methods were used to characterize response in terms of peak positive and negative displacements. It was found that the influence of the negative phase is significant and the peak structural response can occur during negative (outward) displacement.     

三维点云基础上排土场垮塌影响范围研究

高台阶排土场下游常分布有居民区、厂房等,一旦垮塌,后果严重,因此完善的防治与应急准备工作十分关键,而排土场垮塌影响范围的预测是这些工作的重要前提依据。为提升高台阶排土场垮塌影响范围的预测准确性,需要获取准确的地形边界基础数据。通过利用三维激光扫描仪对新建排土场及其下游地形精细扫描,对获取的三维点云数据去噪、拼接、建模等处理,生成精度更高的数字高程模型与三维实体模型。在此基础上,结合新建高台阶排土场地质勘查与设计资料,建立颗粒离散元数值模型,利用PFC3D计算高台阶排土场垮塌影响范围,并与经验公式法计算结果对比分析,结果表明排土场颗粒离散元数值模型精度符合要求,可快速、准确地计算影响范围,从而为相关部门提供科学决策依据。     

Detonations and vapor cloud explosions: Why it matters

The methods used to evaluate the consequences of a vapor cloud explosion assume deflagrations within congested process pipework regions and consequently a significant effort has been invested in developing models to estimate the severity of these deflagrations. Models range from the simpler screening approaches to detailed Computational Fluid Dynamics. There is clear evidence from large scale experiments and incidents that transition from deflagration to detonation is credible and has occurred and it is the contention of this paper that deflagration is only the first stage in many major vapor cloud explosions and that detonation is readily foreseeable. Why does this matter? The methods currently used in the design and location of buildings on and around process sites are based on an incomplete picture of vapor cloud explosions. Whilst this might not have a significant effect in some cases, it is shown that there is the potential to significantly underestimate the explosion hazard. This will result in occupied buildings either being placed in the wrong location or under-designed for the explosion threat, increasing the risks to personnel on these sites.