青藏高原东北侧突发性暴雨特征综合分析

对1970-2007年发生在青藏高原东北侧陕西的突发性暴雨研究发现,其夜间降水特点明显,对流层中层较强的偏南气流是突发性暴雨水汽输送贡献最大者和低层辐合的主要动力来源。偏南气流北伸的位置决定突发性暴雨落区偏南或偏北,300hPa一致的纬向12～20m·s-1强风速带为突发性暴雨提供高层抽吸作用。上述两点对突发性暴雨落区有一定的预报指示意义。云图分析显示,突发性暴雨多有中尺度云团配合,上升运动最大值的高度层与突发性暴雨落区地域位置有关。     

基于正态云模型的区域矿产资源可持续力评价

矿产资源是人类生存和社会可持续发展的基础,研究区域矿产资源的可持续力发展水平、能力和发展趋势,不仅仅是个地区问题,更应是资源保障问题,因而对我国资源承载能力和可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。针对当前区域矿产资源可持续力定量测度研究较少,且现有评价方法不能同时兼顾指标的模糊性与随机性的难题,该研究将正态云模型引入区域矿产资源可持续力综合评价。从资源、经济、环境(含人口)三方面构建矿产资源可持续力评价指标体系,基于正态云模型结合改进的层次分析法,不仅使得指标特点得以保真,而且各指标权重的计算量也大大减少,提高了评价方法的适用性。以湖南省2010—2015年间的矿产资源为研究对象,进行矿产资源可持续力定量测度。结果显示,6年间,湖南省矿产资源可持续力状态虽然始终处于III级(一般)状态,但可持续力综合值从2.600 0上升到3.070 8,区域矿产资源可持续力水平有日趋增加态势;个别评价指标仍处于较弱状态,单位GDP能耗量、万元工业产值中矿业产值比率、人口密度单因子得分值均2.5,表明这些指标相对较弱,有待进一步采取相关措施进行改善。该评价结果与实地调研基本吻合,表明该方法是可行的。本方法在定量评价中能兼顾随机性和模糊性,且计算过程简便,结果可靠,能为矿产资源定量评价提供参考。     

基于云模型的太湖流域农村水环境承载力动态变化特征分析——以太湖流域镇江区域为例

农村水环境承载力的定量估算及其动态变化特征研究有助于了解农村地区水资源供需平衡和水环境质量状况,为新农村建设规划和水环境可持续发展提供科学依据。本文以太湖流域镇江区域为研究对象,结合云模型改进模糊综合评价法,构建农村水环境承载力的PSR分析框架和评估指标体系,并结合雷达图、云模型发生器分析其动态变化特征及影响因素。结果表明:云模型能够较好地表征农村水环境承载力的变化特征;农村水环境承载力对太湖流域镇江区域的工农业废水排放、供水总量和治水投入的要求更高;2010~2014年太湖流域镇江区域农村水环境承载力基本保持稳中上升的趋势,但总体处于弱承载状态,且丹阳丹徒润州京口。     

岩爆倾向性的改进有限云评价模型与工程应用

为解决深部开采顶板岩爆评价问题,以挑水河磷矿为例,提出由3个岩爆倾向性评价指标e0/ec、e1/ec、ec/et组成的综合性评价指标体系,采用消除云雾化的综合权重法,建立顶板多指标岩爆倾向性的改进有限云评价模型;通过FLAC3D模拟计算采场的应力值,获得e0/ec、e1/ec、ec/et的参数值;开展挑水河磷矿顶板岩爆...     

景区夜游密集人群踩踏事件情景下脆弱性分析

为深入分析城市景区夜游密集人群易发生踩踏事件的脆弱性成因问题,运用人—环境耦合系统全面分析人群脆弱性模型三因子:暴露性、敏感性和适应性.依据现行标准规范与调查问卷筛选脆弱性指标,在博弈思想组合主客观权重的基础上,构建组合赋权-云模型的脆弱性综合评价模型.以大雁塔休闲旅游景区为实例,运用云算法得到各层指标的评价云图,与标...     

"05728"小兴安岭致洪暴雨中尺度分析

为了加强对黑龙江省暴雨中尺度系统的认识，有利于暴雨灾害的预报和防御，对2005年7月28-29日发生在小兴安岭的暴洪中尺度系统，从大尺度环流形势、环流演变特征、云图和雷达回波上观测到的中尺度云团的发生发展、水汽来源、产生的热力和动力条件等几方面进行了比较深入的分析。分析表明：暴雨中尺度系统是在高空槽和新生东北低涡的环境中诱发出来的；卫星和雷达图像也观测到了中-β尺度和中-α尺度的中尺度对流复合体（Mesoscale Convective complex，MCC）的发生发展；中尺度系统的水汽通道主要有两支：西南气流和偏东气流；中层冷空气的推动、风场垂直和水平切变及地形强迫抬升是这次暴洪过程中尺度系统的动力因子和触发条件。     

Oxidation of SO2 in Clouds at Whiteface Mountain

In-cloud oxidation of SO₂ byH₂O₂ was investigated using a tracertechnique based on SO^2– ₄/Se ratios atWhiteface Mountain, New York during summer months from1990 to 1998. Cloud water samples collected at themountain's summit (1.5 km above mean sea level) andaerosols at a below cloud site (Lodge) located at 0.6km amsl and in cloud interstitial air at the summitwere analyzed for SO^2– ₄ and selectedtrace elements. Gaseous SO₂ andH₂O₂were measured in realtime. Cloud water pH wasgenerally below 5.0 with a mean value of 3.6. Theresults show that significant in cloud oxidation occursin clouds during summer months varying from belowdetection to 62% with on average approximately 24% ofthe cloud water SO^2– ₄ produced from in-situ SO₂ oxidation. During summer the clouds wereoxidant limited for approximately one third of thetime.     

Collision of convex objects for calculation of porous mesh in gas explosion simulation

We investigate the coupling of the flamelet combustion model with the collision distance algorithm based on Minkowski addition. The collision algorithm is coded to calculate the porosity of the geometry based on the PDR (Porosity Distributed Resistance) approach for modelling of complex geometries. The turbulent field generated by the interaction of the flow with the porous objects is used to calculate the wrinkling length scale of the flame via the fluctuating velocities. The turbulent fluxes are amended in accordance with assigned porosities at the cell faces. The combustion and porosity models are implemented in the framework of an in house Fortran code that solves the full set of Navier-Stokes equations. The code was named STOKES - Shock Towards Kinetic Explosion Simulator). Results are presented for non-reacting flows and reacting flows over different geometries. Numerical findings are compared with standard commercial CFD tools.     

Effect of scale on freely propagating flames in aluminum dust clouds

The majority of experimental tests done on combustible dusts are performed in constant volume vessels that have limited or no optical access. Over the years, McGill University has been developing alternative experimental techniques based on direct observation of dust flames, yielding reliable fundamental parameters such as flame burning velocity, temperature and structure. The present work describes two new experimental set-ups allowing direct observation of isobaric and freely propagating dust flames at two sufficiently different scales to test the influence of scale on dust flame phenomena. In the laboratory-scale experiments, a few grams of aluminum powder are dispersed in transparent, 30 cm diameter latex balloons that allow for full visualization of the spherical flame propagation. In the field experiments, about 1 kg of aluminum powder is dispersed by a short pulse of air, forming a conical dust cloud with a total volume of about 5 m³. High-speed digital imaging is used to record the particle dispersal and flame propagation in both configurations. In the small-scale laboratory tests, the measured flame speed is found to be about 2.0 ± 0.2 m/s in fuel-rich aluminium clouds. The burning velocity, calculated by dividing the measured flame speed by the expansion factor deduced from thermodynamic equilibrium calculations, correlates well with the previously measured burning velocity of about 22–24 cm/s from Bunsen dust flames. Flame speeds observed in field experiments with large-scale clouds, however, are found to be much higher, in the range of 12 ± 2 m/s. Estimations are presented that show that the presumably greater role of radiative heat transfer in larger-scale aluminium flames is insufficient to explain the six-fold increase in flame speed. The role of residual large-eddy turbulence, as well as the frozen-turbulence effect leading to large-scale dust concentration fluctuations that cause flame folding, are discussed as two possible sources for the greater flame speed.     

基于TUV模式的对流层光解速率影响因子的研究

应用TUV辐射传输模式进行了一系列的敏感性试验,以期确定影响对流层O₃和NO₂光解速率的关键性因子.结果表明,气溶胶的光学性质对光解速率的影响存在明显差异.在气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）一定的情况下,散射性越强,近地面光解速率越大;当AOD从0.5增加至2.5,J[O¹D]和J[NO₂]极大值分别下降30.3%和13.1%.光解速率对较小的云光学厚度的变化比较敏感.云对J[NO₂]的影响存在明显的时间差异,在早晨和傍晚,J[NO₂]的衰减可以达到12%,而午时,J[NO₂]的衰减不足4%;在垂直方向上,云层的存在能够减小通过云层的光化辐射通量,有效降低云下光解速率,而云滴的后向散射特性能增大云上的光解速率.臭氧能够吸收300nm左右的紫外辐射,因而臭氧柱浓度变化对J[O¹D]有显著的影响,臭氧柱浓度从200DU增加至400DU,J[O¹D]极大值下降了53.1%,J[NO₂]极大值仅降低了1.0%.同时发现,气溶胶和云相对位置的改变对光解速率的垂直分布有较大的影响,气溶胶在云上时,高层的光解速率明显增大,且气溶胶的散射性越强,光解速率的增幅越大;当吸收性气溶胶位于云上时,使得高层光化辐射通量大量衰减,此时云层对于光解速率的影响比较微弱.