基于云模型的灭火救援作战方案优选方法研究

为了解决灭火救援作战方案优选中存在的模糊性和随机性问题,提出基于云模型的优选方法。首先,根据消防部队灭火救援作战的目标和特点,确定作战方案优选指标集;其次,通过专家咨询建立优选指标的权重云,采用指标近似法确定优选指标的评价云;最后,依据云的算数运算规则对各灭火救援作战方案进行评价,从而确定最佳方案。实例表明:该方法实现作战方案优选中定性语言和定量评价之间的转化,优选结果客观可行、符合人的思维方式,便于灭火救援指挥人员进行决策指挥。     

圆柱形无约束气云爆炸高温效应研究

为了分析无约束可燃气云爆炸产生的高温伤害效应,建立了相应的数学模型,利用有限体积的离散方法,对无约束空间内甲烷浓度10％、高径比为1的圆柱形可燃气云爆炸的瞬态温度场进行了数值研究。研究结果表明,圆柱形可燃气云爆炸的温度场呈不对称性分布,靠近地面处足最危险区域,高温可能达到的最大怪直高度和最大水平距离分别约为圆柱体高的2倍和半径的3．2倍。对数值模拟结果的数据进行多项式拟合,得到了圆柱形可燃气云爆炸场最高温度随水平距离、初温及参与爆炸气云质量的函数关系式,给可燃气云爆炸灾害的预测及防护提供了科学依据。     

"05728"小兴安岭致洪暴雨中尺度分析

为了加强对黑龙江省暴雨中尺度系统的认识，有利于暴雨灾害的预报和防御，对2005年7月28-29日发生在小兴安岭的暴洪中尺度系统，从大尺度环流形势、环流演变特征、云图和雷达回波上观测到的中尺度云团的发生发展、水汽来源、产生的热力和动力条件等几方面进行了比较深入的分析。分析表明：暴雨中尺度系统是在高空槽和新生东北低涡的环境中诱发出来的；卫星和雷达图像也观测到了中-β尺度和中-α尺度的中尺度对流复合体（Mesoscale Convective complex，MCC）的发生发展；中尺度系统的水汽通道主要有两支：西南气流和偏东气流；中层冷空气的推动、风场垂直和水平切变及地形强迫抬升是这次暴洪过程中尺度系统的动力因子和触发条件。     

Oxidation of SO2 in Clouds at Whiteface Mountain

In-cloud oxidation of SO₂ byH₂O₂ was investigated using a tracertechnique based on SO^2– ₄/Se ratios atWhiteface Mountain, New York during summer months from1990 to 1998. Cloud water samples collected at themountain's summit (1.5 km above mean sea level) andaerosols at a below cloud site (Lodge) located at 0.6km amsl and in cloud interstitial air at the summitwere analyzed for SO^2– ₄ and selectedtrace elements. Gaseous SO₂ andH₂O₂were measured in realtime. Cloud water pH wasgenerally below 5.0 with a mean value of 3.6. Theresults show that significant in cloud oxidation occursin clouds during summer months varying from belowdetection to 62% with on average approximately 24% ofthe cloud water SO^2– ₄ produced from in-situ SO₂ oxidation. During summer the clouds wereoxidant limited for approximately one third of thetime.     

Collision of convex objects for calculation of porous mesh in gas explosion simulation

We investigate the coupling of the flamelet combustion model with the collision distance algorithm based on Minkowski addition. The collision algorithm is coded to calculate the porosity of the geometry based on the PDR (Porosity Distributed Resistance) approach for modelling of complex geometries. The turbulent field generated by the interaction of the flow with the porous objects is used to calculate the wrinkling length scale of the flame via the fluctuating velocities. The turbulent fluxes are amended in accordance with assigned porosities at the cell faces. The combustion and porosity models are implemented in the framework of an in house Fortran code that solves the full set of Navier-Stokes equations. The code was named STOKES - Shock Towards Kinetic Explosion Simulator). Results are presented for non-reacting flows and reacting flows over different geometries. Numerical findings are compared with standard commercial CFD tools.     

Effect of scale on freely propagating flames in aluminum dust clouds

The majority of experimental tests done on combustible dusts are performed in constant volume vessels that have limited or no optical access. Over the years, McGill University has been developing alternative experimental techniques based on direct observation of dust flames, yielding reliable fundamental parameters such as flame burning velocity, temperature and structure. The present work describes two new experimental set-ups allowing direct observation of isobaric and freely propagating dust flames at two sufficiently different scales to test the influence of scale on dust flame phenomena. In the laboratory-scale experiments, a few grams of aluminum powder are dispersed in transparent, 30 cm diameter latex balloons that allow for full visualization of the spherical flame propagation. In the field experiments, about 1 kg of aluminum powder is dispersed by a short pulse of air, forming a conical dust cloud with a total volume of about 5 m³. High-speed digital imaging is used to record the particle dispersal and flame propagation in both configurations. In the small-scale laboratory tests, the measured flame speed is found to be about 2.0 ± 0.2 m/s in fuel-rich aluminium clouds. The burning velocity, calculated by dividing the measured flame speed by the expansion factor deduced from thermodynamic equilibrium calculations, correlates well with the previously measured burning velocity of about 22–24 cm/s from Bunsen dust flames. Flame speeds observed in field experiments with large-scale clouds, however, are found to be much higher, in the range of 12 ± 2 m/s. Estimations are presented that show that the presumably greater role of radiative heat transfer in larger-scale aluminium flames is insufficient to explain the six-fold increase in flame speed. The role of residual large-eddy turbulence, as well as the frozen-turbulence effect leading to large-scale dust concentration fluctuations that cause flame folding, are discussed as two possible sources for the greater flame speed.     

基于TUV模式的对流层光解速率影响因子的研究

应用TUV辐射传输模式进行了一系列的敏感性试验,以期确定影响对流层O₃和NO₂光解速率的关键性因子.结果表明,气溶胶的光学性质对光解速率的影响存在明显差异.在气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）一定的情况下,散射性越强,近地面光解速率越大;当AOD从0.5增加至2.5,J[O¹D]和J[NO₂]极大值分别下降30.3%和13.1%.光解速率对较小的云光学厚度的变化比较敏感.云对J[NO₂]的影响存在明显的时间差异,在早晨和傍晚,J[NO₂]的衰减可以达到12%,而午时,J[NO₂]的衰减不足4%;在垂直方向上,云层的存在能够减小通过云层的光化辐射通量,有效降低云下光解速率,而云滴的后向散射特性能增大云上的光解速率.臭氧能够吸收300nm左右的紫外辐射,因而臭氧柱浓度变化对J[O¹D]有显著的影响,臭氧柱浓度从200DU增加至400DU,J[O¹D]极大值下降了53.1%,J[NO₂]极大值仅降低了1.0%.同时发现,气溶胶和云相对位置的改变对光解速率的垂直分布有较大的影响,气溶胶在云上时,高层的光解速率明显增大,且气溶胶的散射性越强,光解速率的增幅越大;当吸收性气溶胶位于云上时,使得高层光化辐射通量大量衰减,此时云层对于光解速率的影响比较微弱.     

基于葵花影像中国地区夜间云识别方法研究

目的实现适用于中国地区的夜间云识别。方法根据红外波段云与非云的亮温差异,采用亮温阈值法研究适用于中国地区的夜间云识别算法。中国地形高程差异明显,其地表辐射能量也存在较大差异,影响云检测结果精度,因而提出基于三个高程阶梯的云识别方法。由于云检测结果验证缺少可见光波段,使用MODIS云数据产品和雷达数据CALIPSO分别做定性和定量验证。结果云检测区域与MODIS的MYD06云产品基本一致,CALIPSO雷达数据四个月的平均验证结果为:非云区域的提取精度约77.86%,云区域的提取精度为79.67%,将有云区域错提为非云的误差率为2.76%,而将非云区域误提取为有云区域的错误率为12.31%。结论利用日本静止气象卫星Himawari-8影像数据,根据阈值法提出的基于三个高程阶梯的云检测算法,较好地实现了适用于中国地区的夜间云识别。     

云水和云下冲刷颗粒物与气态污染物对降水中硫酸盐和硝酸盐的贡献

为定量云水和云下冲刷分别对降水中SO₄2-、NO₃-的贡献,并进一步解析云下冲刷颗粒相和气相物质分别对降水样品中SO₄2-、NO₃-的贡献,于2016年4月-2017年2月采用APS-3A型降水自动采样仪对降水进行分段采集.采用离子色谱检测分段降水样品的ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）,分析其变化规律;在降水前、降水中及降水后同步采集并检测大气颗粒相ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）和气相ρ（SO₂）、ρ（NO₂）,分析颗粒相中ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）和气相中ρ（SO₂）、ρ（NO₂）的变化与分布.结果表明:①ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）在同一场降水的分段样品中呈逐渐降低至后期趋于平稳的趋势,说明降水对空气中污染物的冲刷使空气逐渐清洁,后期冲刷作用有限使得降水中离子质量浓度趋稳.②颗粒相中ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）与气相中ρ（SO₂）、ρ（NO₂）在降水前较高,在降水中减小,并在降水后回升,说明降水对颗粒相SO₄2-、NO₃-和气相SO₂、NO₂均有清除作用,降水结束后无云下冲刷作用,污染物质量浓度逐步回升.③云水对降水中ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）的贡献率分别为22%~56%（平均值为35%）、9%~49%（平均值为29%）,云下冲刷颗粒相SO₄2-、NO₃-对降水中ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）的贡献率分别为39%~69%（平均值为55%）、43%~73%（平均值为56%）,云下冲刷气相SO₂、NO₂对降水中ρ（SO₄2-）、ρ（NO₃-）的贡献率分别为5%~17%（平均值为10%）、5%~19%（平均值为15%）.研究显示,降水中SO₄2-、NO₃-主要来源于云水和云下冲刷颗粒相SO₄2-、NO₃-,而来源于云下冲刷气相SO₂、NO₂较少.      

基于云模型的水体富营养化程度评价方法

水体富营养化程度评价对生态环境保护具有重要意义.针对水体富营养化程度评价不可避免的模糊性和随机性的特点,本文引入云模型的方法,对我国14个代表性湖库的富营养化程度进行评价.根据确定的评价标准,生成各评价因子隶属于各级别的综合云模型,并针对湖库实测资料,得到各评价物的确定度,由最大确定度决定湖库营养化级别.将该法所得结果与湖库实际水质状况、国内外应用较为广泛且简便的营养状态指数、评分公式法及模糊综合评价法所得结果进行对比,发现评价结果真实可靠,计算过程简洁明了,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性.