Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.     

天然气钻井井口安全距离研究分析

分析天然气钻井井场可能发生的事故类型及事故的破坏程度,选择适合的事故后果模型,对天然气井井喷失控后可能发生的蒸气云爆炸及硫化氢扩散的后果进行量化分析,根据超压-冲量准则、热剂量准则和硫化氢扩散行为规律,计算出爆炸波、爆炸火球及硫化氢扩散的危害范围。笔者建立了天然气钻井井口安全距离的计算模型,并提出一种确定安全距离的方法。通过计算给出不同无阻流量、不同硫化氢体积含量的20种条件下的天然气钻井井口安全距离,并应用该模型对某含硫气井井口安全距离进行了计算。实例表明,该方法具备实用性,值得在天然气井选址规划中推广和使用。     

考虑油滴碰撞聚结的斜板除油过程模拟

考虑离散油滴在油田废水除油过程中发生的油滴碰撞聚结现象,模拟得出斜板除油器内全部油滴的动态信息,用于斜板除油器除油效率的计算.对矩形同向流斜板除油过程的模拟研究表明:油滴的碰撞聚结会增加斜板除油的效率;当废水的原始含油浓度增大时,斜板除油的效率会增大,碰撞聚结对除油效率提高的影响也越大;废水流动速度提高及斜板的倾斜角度增加均会使斜板的除油效率降低,但此时油滴碰撞聚结对除油效率的影响仍很明显.     

生石灰孔结构对高温脱硫性能的影响

喷钙脱硫工艺的炉内脱硫率 ,不仅受工艺参数的影响 ,还与石灰石分解生成的新生CaO或直接喷入的CaO的表面结构有关。本研究用同一石灰石经不同方法 (煅烧、过烧、煅烧 -水合 -脱水等 )制备了四种具有不同比表面积和孔结构的生石灰。高温脱硫研究表明 :这四种不同孔结构的生石灰 ,具有不同的脱硫率。通过对高温脱硫前后吸着剂宏观结构变化的对比 ,发现半径小于 30 的孔易被反应产物堵塞 ,因而脱硫能力有限 ,而半径大于 5 0 的孔对脱硫更有效。本研究将为提高炉内喷钙的脱硫率、研制和开发高效脱硫剂提供新的途径。     

Efficient management of eutrophic coastal zones in theory and practice: an application on nitrogen reduction to the Stockholm archipelago

This study estimates efficient nitrogen load reductions to the Stockholm archipelago, a Swedish coastal zone in the Baltic Sea, and compares these with politically determined and implemented nitrogen abatement programs. The region is relatively well equipped with necessary data, and a simple programming model is constructed. The results show a large divergence in efficient nitrogen reductions, mainly due to the divergences in benefit estimates from water quality improvements in the archipelago. However, the results need to be interpreted with caution due to all uncertainties related to predicting net values from changes in nitrogen load to a coastal zone. In spite of this, it is still of policy relevance to infer results which show that the politically determined target coincides with an efficient nitrogen reduction at relatively low benefit estimate, but that actual net benefits could be increased from a reallocation of abatement measures towards more low cost measures.     

Blast wave clearing behavior for positive and negative phases

The purpose of the research was to improve prediction of response of buildings to blast waves by including the negative phase and considering clearing of both positive and negative phases. Commonly used structural design practices, which trace their origins to military design manuals, often ignore the negative phase as well as positive phase clearing. For high explosive threats, this approach is conservative in most circumstances. However, negative phase clearing had not previously been studied for blast waves, and the implications for structural response had not been evaluated. This paper presents results of modeling negative phase blast clearing behavior for a typical blast wave and discusses the differences from positive phase clearing. The implications of including positive and negative phase clearing in building blast damage analysis are also investigated through single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) analyses.Blast waves from explosion sources like a vapor cloud explosion (VCE), pressure vessel burst or high explosive exhibit both positive and negative phases, and the relative magnitude of the positive and negative phases varies among explosion sources and the specific circumstances of each source. A fully reflected blast wave is produced if an incident blast wave were to strike an infinitely tall and wide wall in a normal orientation. Both the positive and negative phases of the blast wave are enhanced by the reflection process. However, when an incident blast wave strikes a wall of finite size in a normal orientation, rarefaction waves are created at the edges of the wall, and the rarefactions sweep down from the roof and inward from sides. The rarefaction waves result in a clearing effect for both the positive and negative phases.Clearing relieves some of the applied blast load on the reflected wall for the positive phase. However, this is not always the case for the negative phase. As shown by the results presented in this paper, clearing may either relieve or enhance the applied negative phase blast load, depending on the duration of the blast wave and the wall dimensions.The impact of negative phase clearing on structural response for generic building components was also investigated. Nonlinear SDOF methods were used to characterize response in terms of peak positive and negative displacements. It was found that the influence of the negative phase is significant and the peak structural response can occur during negative (outward) displacement.     

连续长坡路段驾驶员心率与平曲线半径关系研究

为研究公路连续长坡路段驾驶员心率与曲线半径的关系,提高行车安全,选取9名驾驶员进行实际道路试验.用多导生理记录仪采集驾驶员的心率数据,按上、下坡方向将试验路段的每个曲线划分为7个位置,分别对上、下坡方向每个位置驾驶员的心率增长率和曲线半径的关系进行回归分析,建立相应的模型,并对每个位置的模型进行分析,提出合理的曲线半径设置建议.综合上、下坡方向各位置的曲线半径研究结论提出合理的曲线半径取值建议,公路连续长坡路段曲线半径在r≥900 m和200 m≤r≤300 m内取值.     

上喷式矿井排风热回收装置内液滴运动模型及其优化计算

为了减小常见下喷式装置风吹水损失大的问题,设计了上喷式矿井排风热回收装置.通过液滴受力及运动分析,将上喷式液滴的运动划分为2个阶段.根据牛顿第二定律,建立了简化的液滴动量方程;在该方程的基础上,结合运动阶段划分,得到临界条件下的力平衡关系式;利用该式,在10个不同相对速度下,得到了上喷式与下喷式的保证液滴不被吹飞的临界直径.应用变量替换,将液滴动量方程变换为液滴运动距离的微分式;继而,根据液滴及空气之间的雷诺数组合,导出了液滴最大上升高度的5个积分计算式.应用这些积分式,数值计算了不同迎面风速、液滴粒径及液滴初速度下,上喷式中液滴最大上升高度、下喷式中液滴最大下降高度.对比计算结果,相比下喷式,上喷式具有节水、液滴选择范围宽和低耗高效的优势.     

三维点云基础上排土场垮塌影响范围研究

高台阶排土场下游常分布有居民区、厂房等,一旦垮塌,后果严重,因此完善的防治与应急准备工作十分关键,而排土场垮塌影响范围的预测是这些工作的重要前提依据。为提升高台阶排土场垮塌影响范围的预测准确性,需要获取准确的地形边界基础数据。通过利用三维激光扫描仪对新建排土场及其下游地形精细扫描,对获取的三维点云数据去噪、拼接、建模等处理,生成精度更高的数字高程模型与三维实体模型。在此基础上,结合新建高台阶排土场地质勘查与设计资料,建立颗粒离散元数值模型,利用PFC3D计算高台阶排土场垮塌影响范围,并与经验公式法计算结果对比分析,结果表明排土场颗粒离散元数值模型精度符合要求,可快速、准确地计算影响范围,从而为相关部门提供科学决策依据。     

Detonations and vapor cloud explosions: Why it matters

The methods used to evaluate the consequences of a vapor cloud explosion assume deflagrations within congested process pipework regions and consequently a significant effort has been invested in developing models to estimate the severity of these deflagrations. Models range from the simpler screening approaches to detailed Computational Fluid Dynamics. There is clear evidence from large scale experiments and incidents that transition from deflagration to detonation is credible and has occurred and it is the contention of this paper that deflagration is only the first stage in many major vapor cloud explosions and that detonation is readily foreseeable. Why does this matter? The methods currently used in the design and location of buildings on and around process sites are based on an incomplete picture of vapor cloud explosions. Whilst this might not have a significant effect in some cases, it is shown that there is the potential to significantly underestimate the explosion hazard. This will result in occupied buildings either being placed in the wrong location or under-designed for the explosion threat, increasing the risks to personnel on these sites.