Spreading the News on Carbon Capture and Storage: A State-Level Comparison of US Media

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has received abundant federal support in the USA as an energy technology to mitigate climate change, yet its position within the energy system remains uncertain. Because media play a significant role in shaping public conversations about science and technology, we analyzed media portrayal of CCS in newspapers from four strategically selected states. We grounded the analysis in Luhmann's theory of social functions, operationalized through the socio-political evaluation of energy deployment (SPEED) framework. Coverage emphasized economic, political/legal, and technical functions and focused on benefits, rather than risks of adoption. Although news coverage connected CCS with climate change, the connection was constrained by political/legal functions. Media responses to this constraint indicate how communication across multiple social functions may influence deployment of energy technologies.     

中国化石能源以生物质能源替代的潜力及环境效应研究

基于1953~2007年间的统计数据,根据消耗能值相等的原则,计算了中国化石能源能值消耗量及农作物残余物可替代能值量.结果表明,建国初期,化石能源资产消耗的能值量基本可以用农作物残余物来替代;随着化石能源消耗量的与日俱增,化石能源能值消耗与农作物残余物可补偿能值之间的差距越来越大,2007年,我国农作物残余物可替代能值量仅为化石能源能值消耗量的10.35%.对生物质能替代可减少的环境价值损失估算可知:1990~2007年,由于生物质能替代可以减少因煤炭开采造成的环境治理费用773.91亿元;减少因能源消费而造成的环境污染价值损失11311.76亿元,其中由于减少SO2排放而减少的环境经济损失量占环境污染经济损失量的56.93%,减少NOx和灰分排放分别占环境污染经济损失量的33.13%和9.94%.     

Reducing carbon emissions in Portugal: the relative roles of fossil fuel prices,energy efficiency,and carbon taxation

We assess the role of fossil fuel prices, energy efficiency, and carbon taxation in achieving climate policy goals using a dynamic general-equilibrium model of the Portuguese economy. Given the forecasts for international fossil fuel prices, improving energy efficiency and implementing a new carbon tax have significantly different economic and budgetary effects. Greater energy efficiency reduces emissions and has a positive economic effect, but increases public and foreign debt. A carbon tax reduces emissions at a cost for the economy, but leads to positive effects on public and foreign debt. Thus, it is important to pursue both strategies. We estimate that under the reference-price scenario, a steady energy efficiency gain of 2%–2.5% per year and a carbon tax of at least 35 € per tCO₂ are needed to achieve the stated goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 by an amount equivalent to 40% of the emissions in 1990. These views were fully integrated in a proposal presented by the Commission for Environmental Tax Reform to the Portuguese Government in September 2014, and then discussed in Parliament in November 2014, before enacting a new carbon tax on 1 January 2015.     

兰州市化石燃料燃烧源排放VOCs的臭氧及二次有机气溶胶生成潜势

随着我国工业的快速发展和城市化进程的加快,化石燃料的大量使用造成了严重的二氧化硫、颗粒物和挥发性有机物(volatile organic compounds,VOCs)等大气污染.目前,对化石燃料燃烧排放挥发性有机物环境影响的研究较少,本文计算了兰州市化石燃料燃烧源排放VOCs及其相应的臭氧生成潜势(ozone formation potential,OFP)和二次有机气溶胶生成潜势(secondary organic aerosols formation potential,SOAFP),其中水泥制造业的OFP和SOAFP占比最大,分别为45. 3%、50. 9%;其次为砖瓦制造业,但其吨标煤燃烧排放VOCs的OFP和SOAFP值最高,折为吨标煤后天然气燃烧产生VOCs的O_3和SOA最小.兰州市主城区化石燃料燃烧源OFP和SOAFP主要为电力和热力的生产供应以及西固区工业企业排放VOCs的贡献,其它地区为水泥制造业、砖瓦制造业、钢铁冶炼业等高能耗的行业的贡献为主.芳香烃是化石燃料燃烧源排放VOCs中对OFP和SOAFP均贡献最大的一类物质,占比分别为40. 0%和67. 2%,并且在生成潜势贡献前10的物种中芳香烃为主要物种.与生物质燃烧源相比,化石燃料燃烧源具有较强的O_3和SOA生成能力(2. 58 t·t~(-1)和3. 16 kg·t~(-1)).     

南京市大气CO2浓度模拟及源贡献研究

定量研究城市区域人为CO_2通量对于控制温室气体排放具有重要意义,而基于大气CO_2浓度观测与大气传输模型方法反演区域尺度的CO_2通量是未来的一个重要发展方向,其中模型对大气CO_2浓度的模拟则是能否成功反演CO_2通量的重要基础,然而我国还未有针对城市区域CO_2浓度的长时间(1年)模拟.本研究基于高空间分辨率的人为源CO_2资料与拉格朗日大气传输模型(WRF-STILT),对南京市郊区34 m观测高度处2014年大气CO_2浓度进行模拟,并就模型模拟结果的主要影响因素和源贡献组成进行了分析,研究得出以下结论:(1)WRF-STILT模型能较好模拟出4个季节观测到的高CO_2浓度及有季节差异性的日变化特征.(2)观测CO_2浓度的足迹贡献源区(footprint)的季节变化在盛行风向影响下差异巨大,CO_2浓度增加值在前1 d的主要贡献占据总浓度贡献的90%,表明该34 m高度观测点可代表长三角区域的CO_2排放量的影响,而安徽东部和江苏中南部对其影响更大;(3)相对于排放源的日变化,边界层高度等气象因素的差异是引起CO_2强日变化的主要因素,这也是模拟的各季度浓度增加值差异的原因,其中秋季(34.97μmol·mol-1)冬季(30.07μmol·mol-1)夏季(27.28μmol·mol-1)春季(23.36μmol·mol-1);(4)浓度的主要贡献来源分别为石油生产(41%)和能源工业(26%),这和长三角区域的人为源CO_2排放通量差异巨大(石油生产:3%,能源工业:35%).     

Carbon Offset Potentials of Four Alternative Forest Management Strategies in Canada: A Simulation Study

Using an Integrated TerrestrialEcosystem C-budget model (InTEC), we simulated thecarbon (C) offset potentials of four alternativeforest management strategies in Canada: afforestation,reforestation, nitrogen (N) fertilization, andsubstitution of fossil fuel with wood, under differentclimatic and disturbance scenarios. C offset potentialis defined as additional C uptake by forest ecosystemsor reduced fossil C emissions when a strategy isimplemented to the theoretical maximum possibleextent. The simulations provided the followingestimated gains from management: (1) Afforesting allthe estimated 7.2 Mha of marginal agricultural landand urban areas in 1999 would create an average Coffset potential of 8 Tg C y^-1 during 1999–2100,at a cost of 3.4 Tg fossil C emission in 1999. (2)Prompt reforestation of all forest lands disturbed inthe previous year during 1999–2100 would produce anaverage C offset potential of 57 Tg C y^-1 forthis period, at a cost of 1.33 Tg C y^-1. (3)Application of N fertilization (at the low rate of 5kg N ha^-1 y^-1) to the 125 Mha ofsemi-mature forest during 1999–2100 would create anaverage C offset of 58 Tg C y^-1 for this period,at a cost of 0.24 Tg C y^-1. (4) Increasingforest harvesting by 20% above current average ratesduring 1999–2100, and using the extra wood products tosubstitute for fossil energy would reduce averageemissions by 11 Tg C y^-1, at a cost of 0.54 TgC y^-1. If implemented to the maximum extent, thecombined C offset potential of all four strategieswould be 2–7 times the GHG emission reductionsprojected for the National Action Plan for ClimateChange (NAPCC) initiatives during 2000–2020, and anorder of magnitude larger than the projected increasein C uptake by Canada's agricultural soils due toimproved agricultural practices during 2000–2010.     

阜新市化石燃料燃烧源大气污染物排放源清单及特征分析

为了向阜新市化石燃料燃烧源大气环境管理工作提供排放清单的理论依据,通过对阜新市(5区、2县、2园区)环境统计数据的收集和实地调查,结合本地化大气排放因子,建立了2017年阜新市化石燃料燃烧源涵盖SO_2、NO_x、PM_(2. 5)、PM_(10)、挥发性有机物(VOCs)、CO、黑碳(BC)、有机碳(OC) 8类大气污染物的排放清单。利用Arc Gis 10. 2遥感技术,分析了大气污染物时空分配特征。研究结果表明:8类污染物排放量分别为11 915. 49、7 215. 33、3 607. 78、2 002. 96、4 594. 72、4 277. 05、384. 15、16. 62 t;各类污染物的贡献率以及区域空间分布特征均存在差异,但其在时间上表现出一致性(除PM_(2. 5)),即在时间上均表现出两个峰值,高峰分别出现在夏季的七、八月和冬季的十一月至一月;县区中彰武县污染物排放较多,市区中太平区污染物排放较多;火力发电和热力供应企业对阜新市大气污染贡献较大,应当重点管控。     

A Comparison of Sediment and Monitoring Data: Implications for Paleomonitoring a Small Lake

Long-term limnological monitoring data (from 1971 to 2001) were compared with sediment core record in Lake Viitna Linajärv (hereafter L. Viitna), a small lake in northern Estonia. The monitoring data show that L. Viitna changed from mesotrophic in the 1970s to eutrophic in the 1990s. The trends of paleodata thatintegrate the changes in the biogeochemical matter cycling in the lake over 2–3 years have clear signals about changes in the state ofthe ecosystem in L. Viitna during the last decades. A gradual increase in organic productivity should reflect a greater oxygen demand in the hypolimnion. As a result the hypolimnion becameseasonally anoxic earlier and its pH level remained low for a longer time. These fundamental changes near the sediment-water interface were recorded in the sediment core. The greatest changes occurred at the beginning of the 1980s (layers at a depthof ca. 20 cm), when the meso(eu?)trophic conditions in L. Viitnastarted to become increasingly more eutrophic. The variations ofpaleorecords in the upper part of the sediment core coincide temporally with changes in the water level of the lake.     

Consistent Ecological Selectivity through Time in Pacific Island Avian Extinctions

Abstract: Understanding the ecological mechanisms that lead to extinction is a central goal of conservation. Can understanding ancient avian extinctions help to predict extinction risk in modern birds? I used classification trees trained on both paleoecological and historical data from islands across the Pacific to determine the ecological traits associated with extinction risk. Intrinsic traits, including endemism, large body size, and certain feeding guilds, were tightly linked with avian extinction over the past 3500 years. Species ecology and phylogeny were better predictors of extinction risk through time than extrinsic or abiotic factors. Although human impacts on birds and their habitats have changed over time, modern endangered birds share many of the same ecological characteristics as victims of previous extinction waves. My use of detailed predictions of extinction risk to identify species potentially in need of conservation attention demonstrates the utility of paleoecological knowledge for modern conservation biology.     

基于超效率SBM的中国省际工业化石能源效率评价及影响因素分析

工业占据我国最大的化石能源终端消耗,评价中国工业化石能源效率对于提高我国工业化石能源效率和实现节能减排目标具有重要意义.本文运用包含非期望产出的超效率SBM模型评价中国30个省(直辖市、自治区)和三大区域(东部、中部、西部)2006—2011年间的工业化石能源效率,运用Tobit回归模型分析工业化石能源效率的影响因素,并给出各区域节能减排潜力.研究结果表明:北京、天津、上海等地区每年的工业化石能源效率指数均远远领先于其他省份;东部区域效率值以明显的优势高于中部和西部区域;西部区域的效率值比较平稳;中部区域内部各地区效率值比东部和西部区域集中.Tobit回归分析结果表明,地区GDP、经济结构、外商直接投资、工业新增固定投资和地理位置位于东部对地区工业化石能源效率有积极影响;产业结构和地理位置位于中部对地区工业化石能源效率有消极影响;地区人均GDP对地区工业化石能源效率没有显著性影响.东部地区油品和天然气节能潜力较大,中部地区煤炭节能潜力较大,西部地区煤炭和天然气节能潜力较大;中部和东部地区是工业CO2减排的重点.基于以上研究本文给出了3点建议提升工业能源效率.