Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

基于降水Z指数的朝鲜降水及旱涝时空特征

利用TRMM（Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission,TRMM）3B43月降水数据,并结合降水Z指数,研究朝鲜1998—2018年的降水和旱涝时空格局。结果表明：TRMM与站点观测降水数据有显著的相关性。朝鲜降水季节性特征明显,57.29%的降水集中在夏季,空间上自东北部沿海岸线向东南递增。朝鲜的区域综合旱涝等级基本处于正常状态,偏旱和偏涝发生的频率最高,其次是大旱和大涝,极旱和极涝发生的频率最低,夏季和冬季干旱发生最为频繁,而洪涝在秋季频发。朝鲜北部发生旱涝事件的频率明显高于南部,咸镜山脉和盖马高原是旱涝的多发地区,温泉平原则最不易受到旱涝影响。春季、夏季和秋季均呈现洪涝强度增强的趋势。夏季洪涝强度加剧的趋势明显,中北部地区通过95%的显著性检验。     

短期干旱胁迫对马尾松排放挥发性有机物的影响

为探究干旱环境对BVOCs排放的影响,应用动态封闭式采样系统和热脱附-气相色谱-飞行质谱仪,对短期干旱胁迫作用下马尾松的BVOCs排放进行了实验室测量,定量分析BVOCs排放速率和排放组成的变化.结果表明,干旱胁迫时异戊二烯的排放受到抑制,排放速率降低约50%;单萜烯和倍半萜烯的排放水平增强,排放速率分别为137.85和0.98μg/（m²·h）,是未受胁迫时的2.9和2.0倍.除反式-α-香柠檬烯外,干旱胁迫促进各单萜烯和倍半萜烯化合物的排放,是未受胁迫时的1.3~42.4倍,其中3-蒈烯排放的响应最敏感,α-葑烯、α-水芹烯和石竹烯的响应最弱.干旱胁迫时单萜烯和倍半萜烯的排放组成有所变化,但主导的化合物种类不变,单萜烯以α-蒎烯、香桧烯和β-蒎烯为主,占比分别为48%、17%和17%;倍半萜烯以石竹烯和长叶烯为主,占比分别为57%和34%.     

科技论文的写作

本文介绍了科技论文的写作步骤和基本格式,指出科技论文写作中应注意的事项。     

两种桑科植物叶片光合及光呼吸对模拟干旱的响应

采用150 g/L的聚乙二醇(Polyethylene glycol,PEG)模拟干旱胁迫,研究两种桑科植物(构树和桑树)的叶片光合及光呼吸特征对干旱胁迫的响应。对植物培养液的相关化学参数以及叶片的光合参数进行测定,结果表明:干旱对构树根系吸水能力的影响小于桑树的;构树以中光合-低蒸腾-高水分利用率的模式适应干旱环境,桑树以低光合-低蒸腾-高水分利用率的模式来应对干旱环境;在模拟干旱环境下,构树以稳定的羧化效率-高光呼吸速率-高光呼吸利用份额来适应外界胁迫,而桑树以低羧化效率-低光呼吸速率-低光呼吸利用份额来应对外界胁迫。构树表现出对外界干旱胁迫更好的适应性,这种适应机制可能与其较强的光呼吸作用及其碳酸氢根离子利用能力有关。这种"以碳换水"的机制可能是喀斯特适生植物适应岩溶干旱的又一个重要机制。     

浅议科技期刊专栏的设置

科技期刊的专栏设置体现了科技期刊的办刊宗旨和方针,是体现科技期刊内容的"科技"特色的具体手段.本文就科技期刊的专栏设计的原则、特点、方法以及注意的问题进行分析,并对其进行了阐述.     

制药GMP技改工程水环境影响分析和对策

对湖北施恩堂制药一期GMP技术改造工程产生的水环境影响进行了分析,采用以UASB+SBR为主的工艺处理技改工程和原有工程产生的制药废水,"以新带老"削减,COD、BOD5、SS分别较GMP技改前减排94.6%、94.1%和50.2%,减轻了污染负荷,可实现达标排放,达到了增产减污的目的。     

油品罐区安全隐患分析及防范

通过对炼油厂油品罐区消防、安全设施进行分析和改进，消除其对罐区的危害；对油罐主体腐蚀及加热器泄漏进行深入分析并提出实用的改进措施；完善生产与安全双重控制系统，为油品罐区标准化改造创造条件。     

连州电厂湿法烟气脱硫系统的综合评价

从技术性能、经济性能两方面对连州电厂的广东省首套石灰石 /石膏湿法烟气脱硫系统进行了全面的评价     

Yellow River Valley flood and drought disaster:spatial-temporal distribution predictionand early-warning

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