USE OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL IN EVALUATING WATER CONSUMPTION CONSERVATION1

ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of water conservation policies on reduction of water consumption was evaluated by use of a multiple regression predictive model. Data were obtained from eight Iowa communities, with regard to water consumption and water conservation policies adopted during the drought of 1977. The proposed model, which takes precipitation, temperature, month effects, and uniqueness of communities into account, is considered superior to the use of simple percent changes in evaluating the significance of reduction in water consumption due to conservation efforts. Among the variety of policies reviewed, mandatory policies with per capita restrictions were found to be most effective. However, voluntary conservation policies also resulted in significant reduction in some communities located in close proximity to other communities with severer water shortages. High credibility of local governments as to water shortage information was singled out as the most important factor in successful conservation by water resource policymakers of these communities. Use of the proposed predictive model for water consumption was demonstrated. Recommendations regarding future water conservation were made.     

THE CIRCUIT RIDING ORDINANCE ADMINISTRATOR: A SOLUTION TO SMALL COMMUNITY TECHNICAL INADEQUACIES1

ABSTRACT: Small, rural communities (less than 2500 population) in general do not have governmental staffs with the breadth required to satisfactorily implement and enforce a drainage ordinance. This fact has serious implications in rural Planning. Within a six-country rural area of Southwest Virginia, the circuit riding town manager program has been successfully conducted. The circuit riding town manager is a planning staff member who acts in the capacity of a town manager (assistant to the mayor) for five small towns, any one of which alone could not afford to support the services of such a professional. This note recommends that a circuit riding technical ordiance administrator program could be developed along the same lines. In this manner, the technical ordinance program for serveral small communities could be successfully implemented.     

WELFARE EFFECTS OF ALTERNATWE WATER RATIONING SCHEMES: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Four alternate schemes often used to deal with a water shortage are: physical rationing, lifeline with increasing block rates, rationing with resale, and pure price rationing. Each of these are analyzed using a supply-demand framework. The theoretical results are applied to a representative California water district and the welfare loss is calculated for a hypothetical 20 percent reduction in water supply for six different income classes. We find that reliance on schemes using the price mechanism in one form or another is clearly superior, in terms of welfare loss, as a means of dealing with a water shortage.     

WATER SUPPLY IMPACTS OF NUCLEAR FALL1

ABSTRACT: “Nuclear winter,” more properly called “nuclear fall,” could be caused by injection of large amounts of dust into the atmosphere. Besides causing a decrease in temperature, it could be accompanied by “nuclear drought,” a catastrophic decrease in precipitation. Dry land agriculture would then be impossible, and municipal, industrial, and irrigation water supplies would be diminished. It has been argued that nuclear winter/fall poses a much greater threat to human survival than do fall out or the direct impacts of a conflict. However, this does not appear to be true, at least for the U.S. Even under the unprecedented drought that could result from nuclear fall, water supplies would be available for many essential activities. For the most part, ground water supplies would be relatively invulnerable to nuclear drought, and adequate surface supplies would be available for potable uses. This assumes that conveyance facilities and power supplies survive a conflict largely intact or can be repaired.     

基于CI指数的祁东县干旱特征分析

利用衡阳市祁东县气象站1960~2013年逐日平均气温、降水观测数据,计算综合气象干旱指数。以国家标准《气象干旱等级GB/T20481~2006》为依据划分不同干旱等级、计算干旱日数、干旱强度等,在此基础上统计干旱日的年、年代际统计并作了线性分析,并为应对干旱提出了自己的建议:祁东县干旱日每年均有出现,但不同强度干旱日发生频率不同,在全球变暖大背景下,干旱日等级越高,其增幅愈明显;祁东县的平均干旱过程数为2.5次/a,一年出现2次干旱过程几率最大,无旱过程的几率为9.3%;在统计年干旱强度时,选用持续时间最长的一次有较好代表性。近54a来,干旱强度年变化可分为三高两低,目前处于干旱强度较高期;祁东县大部分年份有季节性干旱,单季旱以秋旱为主,在双季干旱中,夏秋连旱居多,历史上夏秋冬连旱出现了三次;为了应对日趋严重的干旱,需增强人们的防旱抗灾意识、加大水利设置投入、推广节水农业和提高干旱监测预警能力。     

湖北省近40年旱涝轻重程度的次序确定

本文用旱涝指标(即H=P/E)式计算了湖北省解放以来各年月的旱涝指数,它对给定的时间和空间上的旱涝轻重程度具有明显的分辨能力,由此确定了历年各自然季节的旱涝轻重年份的次序。     

TREE RING RECONSTRUCTIONS OF STREAMFLOW FOR THREE CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: Information regarding long term hydrological variability is critical for the effective management of surface water resources. In the Canadian Prairie region, growing dependence on major river systems for irrigation and other consumptive uses has resulted in an increasing vulnerability to hydrological drought and growing interprovincial tension. This study presents the first dendrochronological records of streamflow for Canadian Prairie rivers. We present 1,113‐year, 522‐year, and 325‐year reconstructions of total water year (October to September) streamflow for the North Saskatchewan, South Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan Rivers, respectively. The reconstructions indicate relatively high flows during the 20th Century and provide evidence of past prolonged droughts. Low flows during the 1840s correspond with aridity that extended over much of the western United States. Similarly, an exceptional period of prolonged low flow conditions, approximately 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D., is coincident with evidence of sustained drought across central and western North America. The 16th Century megadrought of the western United States and Mexico, however, does not appear to have had a major impact on the Canadian rivers. The dendrohydrological records illustrate the risks involved if future water policy and infrastructure development in the Canadian Prairies are based solely on records of streamflow variability over the historical record.     

某型号无人机环境试验技术策划

根据某型无人机结构特性与使用环境,对其气候环境与力学环境试验进行技术策划,确定其环境试验内容、试验条件与方法。采用经验总结与气候、力学环境载荷分析的方法,分析环境因素对无人机工作可靠性的影响和该型无人机飞行环境,总结工作使用状态下的环境载荷,并确定其气候与环境试验内容、条件与方法。总结确定了该型无人机的主要环境载荷,确定了该型无人机环境试验项目与试验条件,并最终进行了环境可靠性试验实施。     

利用市场机制以法防沙治沙——《防沙治沙法》评析

沙漠化是我国面临的最严重的生态环境问题之一 ,利用市场机制防沙治沙是治沙事业发展的必然趋势。本文从《防沙治沙法》入手 ,研究了利用市场机制防沙治沙的法律规定及其意义 ,并对保障其实现提出几点建议     

Water Appropriation Systems for Adapting to Water Shortages in Iraq

Climate variability and population growth have intensified the search internationally for measures to adapt to fluctuations in water supplies. An example can be found in the lower part of the transboundary Tigris‐Euphrates Basin where water shortages in 2008‐2009 resulted in high economic costs to irrigation farmers. Losses to irrigators in the lower basin have made a compelling case to identify flexible methods to adapt to water shortage. Few published studies have systematically examined ways to enhance the flexibility of water appropriation systems to adapt to water shortage. This article addresses an ongoing challenge in water governance by examining how profitability at both the farm and basin levels is affected by various water appropriation systems. Four water appropriation systems are compared for impacts on farm income under each of three water supply scenarios. Results show that a (1) proportional sharing of water shortages among provinces and (2) unrestricted water trading rank as the top two appropriation systems. The shadow price of water for irrigation rises from zero at a full water supply level to US$93/1,000 m³ when supply falls to 20% of full levels. Similar methods could be used to analyze challenges facing the design or implementation of water appropriation systems in the world's irrigated regions.